The primary election of the left and the collection of signatures of the right had the same effect: in the month of September, the difference between the two political camps changed only within the margin of error, according to the opinion poll of the Nézőpont Institute. The deterrent power of Ferenc Gyurcsány is shown by the fact that the minimal movement favored Fidesz.
An important stage in the unification process of the left-wing parties is the pre-election struggle, which is not primarily about the selection of candidates, but is actually a comprehensive mobilization campaign in favor of the left, and especially its unification. The roughly 700,000 participants are barely more than a quarter of the left-wing voting base, but their mobilization is important from the point of view of organizing the opposition. At the same time, Fidesz did not remain idle and responded to the primary election with a similar mobilizing campaign: with the Stop Gyurcsány, Stop Christmas petition, and the ruling party even performed better, it was easier to win over the participants.
Source: Point of View Institute
The two mobilizing campaigns balanced each other in overall effect, both voter camps became more determined, but the competitive situation between the two voter camps did not change.
Based on the party preferences of the voters who promised their participation for sure, Fidesz 53, the united left, would get 45 percent of the votes "this Sunday". All of this would enable the current ruling party to continue to govern comfortably, with a majority of around 120 seats. Although 7 percent of voters for other parties can be identified between the two political camps, they do not have a clear preference, only less than a third (2 percent) indicated a specific party name as their preference, which also shows the current weakness of Mi Hazánk and Kétfarkú Kutyapárt.
Fidesz's advantage has been increasing since July, but only within the margin of error even in two months. Overall, however, it can be said that the government campaign focusing on Ferenc Gyurcsány works politically, keeps the Fidesz camp together and slightly increases it, and for the left, the former prime minister remains a divisive issue. Previous figures from the Nézőpont Institute showed that a third of government critics want the former prime minister to leave.
Source and images: Viewpoint Institute
