In Europe, the "demographic winter" is also associated with a change in the age composition of the population, the proportion of the elderly is increasing and the proportion of the young is decreasing, which also raises significant economic and social problems.
When I was born, there were 2.4 billion people on Earth, since then that number has more than tripled, and if I push it a little further, maybe it will quadruple in my lifetime. Pre-Industrial Revolution man had no experience of population growth, when he died, the population of the Earth was essentially the same as when he was born, and at most epidemics changed it a little. The average number of children born in one family, let's say professionally, that the total fertility rate may have varied around five or six, similar to what is currently the case in the sub-Saharan region. Of course, the mortality rate was also high, which is how the essentially unchanged or barely growing population came about.
The industrial revolution, coal, as an energy source significantly exceeding previous energy sources (wind and water energy, animal and human power), as well as the development of technical inventions (including agricultural ones) and health care significantly increased the Earth's carrying capacity and reduced mortality rates, the population began to grow. In different continents, and we could also say that in cultures, population growth was different. In Europe, which was at the forefront of technical development, it could be said to be the pioneer, the total fertility rate decreased parallel to the gradual development, and thus, although the population growth was significant compared to the pre-industrial era, there was no population explosion.
Population growth in the 17th century was only 0.2 percent per year, this gradually accelerated to reach one percent per year in the first half of the 20th century. to stagnation. According to the medium forecast of the UN, world population growth will peak around 2100 with 11 billion people, which will be about 3 billion more than at present.
The increase will practically come from the sub-Saharan region. The population of Asia - compared to its population - hardly changes, but its structure is transformed, the population of China will decrease by about 400 million, the population of India and Pakistan will increase by 100 million each. The population of North America increases by 120 million, and that of the European Union decreases by 60 million, mainly thanks to Poland, Germany, Italy and Spain. In Hungary, a decrease of three million is expected by 2100 compared to the current level.
With the transformation of the demographic structure and the catching up of developing countries, especially Asian ones, the weight of the developed industrial countries that previously dominated the world economy is decreasing. For example, the European Union once accounted for half of world trade and a third of the world's GDP, today these numbers are one-third and one-quarter. This trend will continue and converge to the population ratios, which predicts a significant reorganization of geopolitical relations in the coming decades.
In Europe, the "demographic winter" is also associated with a change in the age composition of the population, the proportion of the elderly is increasing and the proportion of the young is decreasing, which also raises significant economic and social problems. It is therefore no wonder that European countries are trying to improve their population indicators, which some countries want to achieve by increasing immigration, and others by increasing the number of children. It is known that to keep the population at the same level, the total fertility rate (the average number of children born during a woman's lifetime) must be 2.1.
In the past, the population was kept in balance by a high birth rate and a higher death rate due to disease, but achieving this balance artificially is not easy. An example of this is China, where at one time parents were obliged to have only one child, now that the total fertility rate has fallen far below the level necessary to maintain the population (comparing with that of the European Union), they are encouraging the achievement of the two- or three-child family model.
In Europe, the decline of the total fertility rate below sustainability has been observed since the 1960s. At the beginning of the sixties, the total fertility rate in all EU countries was still well above the sustainability level, the decisive change occurred in the last third of the last century, when the total fertility rate fell from 2.5 to 1.5 on average in the EU, and since then it has stagnated around , although some countries are making serious efforts to improve this indicator. There are big differences between EU countries.
The total fertility rate is highest in France, which has been making significant efforts in this regard for a long time, at 1.87, and the lowest in Italy and Spain, around 1.25. A total fertility rate of 1.5 means that, in the long term, the population will decrease by an average of 2.5 percent per year and will increasingly age, accordingly the ratio of dependents (children + pensioners), along with all its economic and social problems, will continuously is increasing.
It is difficult to say what caused the large decline in the total fertility rate in the last century. What is clear from the statistics is that the fertility rate of girls in their twenties has decreased significantly, and the older age groups have not been able to compensate for this, although the age-specific birth rate has increased in the age group of thirty. With a good approximation, we could say that the children that women do not have in their twenties will never be born.
The reasons can be manifold. One is urbanization. Urban culture is quite different from rural culture. The traditional peasant world exerted a great deal of moral pressure on young people to get married and to make these marriages permanent with the blessing of children. Although those times have passed, significant differences between the village and the city can still be seen today.
Another reason for the decline in fertility is the increase in the level of education. Most of the young people go to higher education institutions and stay there until the age of 30, enjoying the benefits of the "mama hotel", since the generation that rebuilt Europe after the Second World War created the conditions for this. Today, for many, working is not a compulsion, but rather a "heroic act", as the former labor activist says. Obviously, modern contraceptives also had their effect, since according to the statistics of the time, about half of the first-born children were "premature" - at least compared to the time of marriage.
All this also means that the possibilities of improving demographic indicators with financial incentives are limited. This is also shown by domestic data. The Orbán government really did everything to increase the number of births, but we were only able to achieve an improvement between 2011 and 2016, mainly with the increase in the fertility of the 30-year-old age group, but we still only reached the EU average. After that, the improvement was very moderate and was mainly limited to the 35-39 age group.
From a territorial point of view, in the majority of countries there is a significant difference between the individual parts of the country, usually the countryside and the city. In Turkey, for example, where the overall fertility index is already below the sustainability level, it reaches 3.9 in the Kurdish regions, while it is only 1.5 in Ankara. This difference, if not in such an extreme form, is typical for EU countries as well. In Hungary, for example, this ratio is 1.19 in Budapest, while 1.96 in Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén County.
If we cannot change the rate of 1.5 that characterizes the Union, and the current annual immigration of around one million people remains, then by the end of the century - in addition to the decline of the total population - the proportion of the Muslim population will reach 40 percent on average. Due to the unequal distribution, this means that some countries in Western Europe will already have a Muslim majority. If we want to replace the dwindling population with immigrants, 1.5 million immigrants per year are needed for this, and by the end of the century, nearly sixty percent of the population of the Union will be Muslim, and thus Western Europe will practically become Muslim.
However, Islam is not just one religion among the others, but also a conquering ideology with its own laws and social customs, which cannot be integrated either into the conservative-Christian value system or into the European liberalism, so conflicts will be inevitable. The former socialist countries, where the proportion of the Muslim population - with the exception of Bulgaria - does not even reach half a percent, still have a choice today: follow the Western path, or try to secede and create an independent, self-standing economy and society.
Author: Károly Lóránt, economist, advisor to the National Forum
Source: Magyar Hírlap
Featured image: MTI/EPA/Christian Bruna
