They may have warned internally about the worsening situation, but externally the leaders of the research companies who now got into a dispute with Péter Márki-Zay's campaign staff communicated the growing chances of the opposition.
The heads of four public opinion polling companies also attacked the campaign staff of Péter Márki-Zay , after the latter accused them of giving them useless research data, from which it was not possible to foresee the serious slap the opposition would face on April 3.
All this happened after three members of the former campaign staff recently announced that they were starting a new polling project. After dusting off the files of the pre-election research, they realized that the research companies were also responsible for the defeat.
This was not left unsaid by those involved, such as Dániel Róna, the director of the 21 Research Center, who said that this was not true, that the surveys showed the worsening situation, but the campaign team still believed until the last moment that the opposition could win. According to him, after this, it is not credible on their part that they are now educating the profession and shifting the responsibility to all domestic researchers.
Even in the last minute, he saw the victory of the opposition
In the article, Median leader Hann Endre complained that the left and its media were cold and hot when they announced some negative survey results for the opposition.
However, it appears from previous statements that
The Hann Endrés gave victory reports even when the water was waist-deep on the sinking ship.
Even at the end of March, the leader of Median even brushed off the fact that the election was clearly dubious. He said: "now the competition seems tighter than four years ago, when two-thirds was the question."
In the research published by the company on March 30, however, it predicted a significant victory for Fidesz, for which Hann received a lot of criticism. One day before the election, he explained about this in ATV , saying that the survey was made a week earlier and "obviously it also has a flaw". In the program, they talk with Tibor Závecz about the fact that anything can still happen in the election. In other words, it was not discussed here at any level, which according to them, everyone already knew about the drop in support for the opposition.
Interestingly, even on the day of the election, in the live election program of Telex, Hann spoke about the fact that the result could be closer than the last time it was measured.
A high turnout is expected, and it may have mobilized the opposition a little more
he predicted.
Median also focused on the data from the capital, on March 31 their measurement specifically focusing on the capital also predicted a clear victory for the opposition , but it is also worth recalling when the head of the company said in December 2021: "it can be increasingly shown that the young people are , whom Fidesz cannot address". "If only young people voted, the opposition would win overwhelmingly," he stated at the time.
Closing scissors, catching up opposition
In the current article, Zoltán Ember, head of the Compass Institute, who also practices self-criticism, said: "Three or four days before the elections, I had the latest national data between -14 and -18 points showing the opposition lagging behind. Still, I said that I expect an opposition deficit of between 6-8 percent, which is not yet a two-thirds Fidesz victory".
But Ember on the Magyar Hang podcast on March 31
he also talked about the opposition's chances of victory with András Pulai, head of the Publicus Institute,
who, by the way, had the best insight into the election chances.
It is worth recalling Ember's words (from 4:43 on the recording), such as that "two blocks of roughly the same size are fighting each other, so a one-on-one match is expected." He continued by saying that "in the two weeks before the election, the scissors are very tight, the opposition is closing itself off. Fidesz is not losing its support, but the activity of Fidesz is decreasing and that of the opposition is increasing, it has never been so high."
"If this dynamic continues for a few more days, until Sunday, we will really run into it without knowing" [who will win - ed.]
By the way, Ember also made it likely that Mi Házánk will not enter the parliament.
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