China can bear it if Russian success in Ukraine is not complete, writes international relations expert Katherine Bayford.
Earlier this month, China's third-highest-ranking official assured Russia of his express support during a visit to Moscow.
"Rather than being 'crushed' by Western sanctions, Russia has instead 'achieved stability and shown resilience'
said the official.
“We see the United States and its NATO allies expanding their presence near Russia's borders, which seriously threatens Russian national security and the lives of Russian citizens. We fully understand the need for any action by Russia to protect its key interests; we provide coordinated support"
he added.
Bayford notes that while the Russian State Duma released photos and videos of these meetings and translated the Chinese official's comments into official English-language press releases, they were barely featured in Chinese media. A few days later, when the leaders of the Eurasian states gathered in Uzbekistan for the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the leaders of the two countries met for the first time since the outbreak of the war. In the videos of the meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in Samarkand, the Russian president, visibly disturbed after the Russian humiliation in Kharkiv, tried to calm the "concerns" of his Chinese counterpart.
"We appreciate the balanced position of our Chinese friends on the Ukrainian crisis. We understand your questions and concerns about this”
Putin said in his speech opening the meeting.
"At today's meeting, of course, we will explain our position on this issue in detail, although we have already talked about this before"
he added.
However, Bayford says we should be careful not to read too much into these comments. Although recent Russian humiliations have visibly unsettled Xi Jinping, Chinese leaders remain supportive of Russia's strategic goals: they benefit from an alliance against common Western enemies.
In February of this year, the leader of the Chinese Communist Party even declared that the friendship between the two countries "has no boundaries".
The expert sees that China wants a weak and disintegrated West, and that China's evening propaganda shows can show the rising European gas prices.
Furthermore, Beijing hopes that a brutal winter will ensure that Europeans think they are being "taken advantage of" by a strong America that has escaped the energy crisis thanks to its domestic reserves.
But more importantly, Bayford says, Russia will continue to be useful to China. Beijing traded record levels of oil with Russia over the summer and led a powerful public relations offensive against the US-led Western bloc. Russia's influence on Vietnam and India, both of which have strained relations with China, is particularly important to Beijing. Since 2010, Vietnam has bought about 80% of its weapons from Russia, while India has bought 62% during the same period. Today, nearly 70% of India's military equipment is Russian-made. If Xi Jinping drifts too far from Putin, Moscow could use its influence over these two countries.
Bayford believes that China can withstand a Russian success in Ukraine if it is not complete.
If Russia is weakened by the war, but not completely defeated, then China will become an increasingly dominant partner in the alliance between the two.
If Russia achieves its goals in Ukraine, the West will be weakened both economically and geopolitically. According to Bayford, China is letting Russia bear the losses while buying unprecedented amounts of oil and gas from it, and learning from Russia's tactical and strategic mistakes. At the same time, Xi Jinping signaled to Putin: if the fortunes of war turn even more against Russia, then China's previous goodwill may also change.
Featured image: Photo: Alexei Druzhinin / Sputnik / AFP
