Last week, some domestic media reported on a shocking document, an analysis by the RAND Corporation working for the Pentagon. I learned about it from the Press Club and then from the online newspaper Moskvatér, and of course I immediately started researching its origins. The source of the news is a Swedish newspaper, Nya Dagbladet (New Newspaper), which describes a leaked three-page document from the RAND Corporation. According to Nya Dagbladet, the referenced document, which was dated in January of this year, i.e. a month before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, talks about how America could be strengthened at the expense of Europe.
The document is titled Weak Germany, Strengthen the United States , and says that America urgently needs to attract external resources, and that these resources can only be provided by European countries committed to the EU and NATO without significant military and political costs. The biggest obstacle to this, however, is the growing independence of Germany, which increased even more after Brexit and made it difficult for the United States to influence the decisions of European governments. The main goal of the United States is, first of all, to prevent cooperation between Germany and Russia, as well as France, because if that were to happen, Europe would become not only an economic but also a political competitor of the United States. The only way to do this is to drag both sides into war in Ukraine. The stoppage of Russian energy deliveries could cause a systemic crisis, which would have a devastating effect on the German economy and indirectly on the entire European Union. The only possible way for Germany to reject Russian energy supplies is to get involved in the military conflict in Ukraine. The European green parties can play a significant role in this, which can be easily manipulated and are particularly suited to serve American interests. The German environmental movement is highly dogmatic, even fanatical, and quite easily persuaded to ignore German economic interests. Due to their personal qualities and professional shortcomings, the leaders of this movement will not admit their mistakes in time, so an aggressive image of Putin who wants to restore the Russian empire can be formed in the media quite quickly, and the greens will become enthusiastic and hard supporters of sanctions.
Nya Dagbladet also gives the source of the document, which is a photographed executive summary with the RAND Corporation letterhead. Reading through this original document, its eerie coincidence with the events of the past semester stood out. I myself was engaged in forecasting at my main job, I made countless forecasts and, of course, I read countless forecasts made by others, and fate gave me the opportunity to check the fulfillment of both my own predictions and those made by others. I know from my own practice that it is not possible to foresee the future as precisely as the RAND Corporation's material contains, so I became quite suspicious of this document. I looked for the news paper, Nya Dagbladet Wikipedia says that
"Nya Dagbladet is a Swedish online daily newspaper founded in 2012. The newspaper is nationalistic, science-sceptic and non-partisan, with historical ties to the National Democrats. He claims to be a humanist and an ethnopluralist and takes an anti-globalist stance. He often refers to pseudoscience and anti-vaccination”.
This does not bother me, since Wikipedia evaluates everything from the point of view of the mainstream, and in today's conditions, anyone who does not share the liberal views of the mainstream is classified as some kind of extremist. I have also been called far-left (when during the regime change I opposed overnight, unconceptualized privatization), populist because of my articles opposing neoliberal principles, and even far-right behind my back, which somehow leaked back. However, the document attributed to the RAND Corporation is indeed a forgery, I can say this for sure based on my own forecasting practice. Looking more closely at the Nya Dagbladet article, I found a reference at the end to the fact that "RAND issued a press release denying that the report came from them, but does not say what makes the report false or untrue, only in short, it says that it considers the content bizarre and that the document is fake”.
Well, the report is false because it was not written by RAND Corporation experts, otherwise it perfectly describes the policy and behavior that prevails in the circles of the current US administration. There are also much more famous forgeries whose content is basically true, but not written by the people under whose name it appears.
It is America's old aspiration to prevent a German-Russian or, more broadly, Russian-Western European cooperation. These ideas were perhaps most clearly Zbigniew Brzezinsky's book The Big Chessboard in 1997, i.e. a quarter of a century before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, but the germs of the idea can already be found in the American geopolitician Alfred Mahan, who, according to him, , Russia or China must be surrounded from the seas using the "anaconda" method used in the American Civil War. One could also quote the saying attributed to the first Secretary General of NATO, Lord Ismay, according to which NATO was created with a threefold purpose: "to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down" . In this formulation, there is no mention of the communist threat, so it is easy to understand why NATO survived after the collapse of the communist system and the Warsaw Pact, and even takes on new tasks, extending its scope to the Indian and Pacific Oceans. According to NATO's 2022 Strategic Concept (NATO 2022 Strategic Concept), the Indo-Pacific region is important for NATO, as developments there can directly affect Euro-Atlantic security, and "the deepening strategic relationship between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation partnership and their mutually reinforcing attempts to undermine the rules-based international order run counter to our values and interests." And these quotes are already from original, non-falsified documents.
The point of the document quoted by Nya Dagbladet journalists Isac Boman and Markus Andersson is not whether it is real or fake, but rather that it draws attention to what is going on in Europe. Because even if the RAND Corporation did not formulate the goals of the current American administration as described, in reality that is exactly what is happening, and the intention to prevent cooperation between Russia and Western Europe is also clearly visible, since if it were to be realized, the Anglo-Saxon powers would be left alone in the In their geopolitical grappling with China and Russia.
This pseudo-document raises very important questions, such as the role of the German Greens . Indeed, Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck act as if they are the extended arms of the current US administration in terms of sanctions against Russia and military support for the Ukrainians. Even though Olaf Scholz is chancellor, he cannot assert German interests against the green coalition partners and the international press, just as Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande failed to do so in connection with the Minsk agreement.
However, the question is whether Europe is really so weak that it cannot secure its vital interests, or whether its leaders are just so weak that they serve the interests of foreign powers. Now is the time to talk openly about the real interests of Europe, and the article in Nya Dagbladet is a great help in this regard, regardless of whether the document it cites is a fake or not.
The author is an economist, consultant of the National Forum, member of the C12 expert group
Source: Magyar Hírlap
Photo: Reuters
