According to the latest data from the US political analysis center FiveThirtyEight, there is a 53 percent probability that the Republican Party will gain a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate during Tuesday's US congressional elections. In contrast, according to them, the Democratic Party has a 17 percent chance of doing so. According to the analysis center, based on public opinion polls, the probability that the Republicans will gain a majority in the House of Representatives, but not in the Senate, is 29 percent, while their success in the Senate is measured at one percent. If the Republicans win, it may become certain that Donald Trump's right-wing ally Viktor Orbán will run in the next presidential election.

During the so-called mid-term elections due on November 8, American voters will decide on the 435 seats in the Congress, i.e. the House of Representatives, and almost one-third of the 100-member Senate, 35 seats. Although the public opinion polls so far consistently "predict" the victory of the Republicans, it remains an open question whether they will be able to obtain a majority over the legislature as a whole. Republican success in both chambers would represent a huge setback for current Democratic President Joe Biden, which would essentially make it impossible for him to carry out his ideas on domestic policy issues - as a result, he would presumably turn to foreign policy for the rest of his term.

The magic number is 218, which is how much you need to reach to win, but according to FiveThirtyEight, Republicans can count on 230 seats according to preliminary surveys.

This is possible because Republicans have more "sure" seats, according to an election analysis by the political news site Politico. According to their calculations, in 216 places, voters tend to lean more or strongly toward the conservatives, so they only need to win two swing votes out of the 26 according to Politico.

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire could be the final states. Among these, according to the latest data from FiveThrityEight, the Republican candidates are currently leading the polls in Wisconsin and Nevada, and there is almost no difference between the candidates' support in Pennsylvania and Georgia. According to Politico, these six swing states may go to the parties in a ratio of half to half, so the Senate may also belong to the Republicans in a ratio of 51:49.

According to a Quinnipiac University survey, one week before the election, 36 percent of American respondents named inflation as the most pressing issue, while only ten percent named abortion as the most pressing issue. While the former is the Republicans' favorite campaign theme, criticizing President Joe Biden's economic policy, the latter belongs to the Democrats, who speak out in favor of the widespread legalization of abortion.

Source: Hungarian Nation

Featured image: EPA-EFE/JIM LO SCALZO