The wave of refugees caused by the war in Ukraine is expected to add millions to the Central European population in the coming years, which will almost stop the population decline in the region. The only negative exception is Romania, according to Capital Economics' analysis, presented by vg.hu.
The population decline in Central Europe is slowing down this decade, after millions move to our region as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine. According to the economists of Capital Economics, however, it is not only the impact of the war. While the natural decline of the Central European population continues, the emigration trend characteristic of the region for decades has reversed in the past five years:
more people are moving home than leaving. This also helps to offset the negative effect of natural weight loss.
Even in the 2010s, the balance of immigration and emigration in Hungary was more favorable than in the most populous countries of the region: Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic. What caused the population loss in Hungary to be greater than that of the Czechs or the Poles was the faster rate of natural loss, i.e. the negative balance of births and deaths. In the case of Czechs and Poles, the latter is expected to deteriorate sharply in the 2020s, Világgazdaság reports. At the same time, the largest number of people from Ukraine will move to Poland, an estimated 1.1 million between 2022 and 2029.
In the case of Romania, this influx is estimated at 350,000 and in Hungary at 200,000. According to the analysis, natural weight loss may moderate in Romania, but this may still cause the overall population to lose weight twice as fast as in Hungary, as we expect the smallest migration surplus.
The population of Croatia, Romania and Latvia has decreased by more than ten percent since 2000, mainly due to emigration. On the other hand, the balance of emigration and emigration was positive for Czechs, Hungarians and Slovaks, and in the coming years Hungary can perform well in this area.
The analysis also mentions that, apart from the Ukrainian influence, it is not worth expecting a significant settlement of foreigners in Central Europe in the coming years. Although some countries, such as Romania, have increased the number of work visas granted to foreigners, the level of immigration depends on the attitude of the inhabitants of the region, and these countries
“they have historically been quite resistant to immigration. Instead, most of the change is likely to come from less emigration.”
- concluded the economists quoted by vg.hu.
Last year, the number of children born in Romania fell to an almost hundred-year low. 171,000 live births were registered, the last time so few children were born in the country was in 1930. The natural population decline in 2022 exceeded 100,000 in Romania, as last year the registry offices registered 272,000 deaths. Last year, 118,135,000 marriages were registered, 526 fewer than in 2021, but the number of divorces decreased to 23,260 from 27,000 the previous year.
Featured image: arthungry.com
