Poland is a country of strong, legitimate leaders. There are no places around here that can be operated successfully even in washroom coalitions. Written by Mátyás Kohán.
Red Bratislava, let your voice roar - Warsaw, answer him! Poland now looks at Slovakia as if it were a feared nuclear power. Both the government and the opposition drew a card soaked in kofola.
The confident words of the governing PiS - the result will be far better than the exit poll, says the spokesperson; the victory is clear and we will use this to form a government, the leader of the faction believes - they only make sense if what happens in Slovakia also happens in Poland, and is grossly misled by the Ipsos' reliable exit poll.
Which is not impossible in that, in addition to Ipsos, another exit poll from the Összlengyel Kutatócsoport (OGB) came out during the night, and practically there is no party for which the two institutes did not estimate a 10-20 percent difference in the number of seats.
That's a lot for pies, and especially for sprinkles.
But the inverse of the same is also true: the opposition also did everything to ensure that the Slovak government would not be repeated in Poland. According to Donald Tusk, PiS governments are over. The leader of the Új Baloldal (Lewica), which is significantly weaker compared to its results four years ago, is already trumpeting to the world that he will return to power, and no one can take that away from him.
And some representatives of the Civic Coalition (KO) are calling on their interlocutors in the public media to start packing.
These would be brave words even if the Ipsos exit poll were the final result; and with a world-beating 73 percent participation, which has never been seen in Poland, and a parallel processing rate of around 5 percent (!), they are downright reckless.
It is no coincidence that the number of seats in the two exit polls, which measure the vote share of the parties in a similar way, is so different: in Poland, the national results of the parties are not much more than a weightless cotton tassel on the nose of a slipper. it should be representative in each constituency. The higher the participation, the more difficult it is. And now the participation is extremely high.
I am hoping for the Slovak scenario. Not simply because I don't deny it: as a right-wing Hungarian, for me the survival of PiS in government is almost as important as whether Fidesz wins the election at home.
After all, it doesn't matter in the least to the smaller countries of Central Europe where the largest of those of the same blood turns.
Where Poland does not come with us, Hungary has no way.
Donald Tusk did not cause as much damage to Poland as Ferenc Gyurcsány did at home, but that still makes it true: under his rule, Polish politics would be very difficult to distinguish from German politics, and Europe needs everything in these difficult times, except for another Germany.
But as a friend of Poland, I also hope that the country will wake up to a different result than the one with which the smarter ones went to sleep early last night.
Because anyone who wants can of course be happy if the Kaczyńskis are ousted from power - but the most likely scenario in Poland, as shown by the exit polls, is still the scenario of ungovernability and lack of direction.
Let's have a taste: according to the numbers of the forecasts, the Tusk party, which is economically liberal in its world life, but which has drifted hard to the left in terms of identity politics in eight years, should form a coalition on the one hand with the Third Way, which not only campaigned against it, but in addition, one half is also conservative Catholic, with corresponding views, for example, regarding abortion and gay marriage. On the other hand, with the Új Baloldal, which, in relation to this issue, roughly represents the position of a Scandinavian liberal party, and economically it is even more to the left of the PiS, whose socially sensitive economic policy Tusk can barely tolerate anyway.
Live in such a coalition, who has seven mothers, especially with a president with strong veto rights and very much PiS in a capital city for just two years.
Poland already had a stable KO government and a stable PiS government; none ended in disaster. However, the only unstable PiS government so far came to an ugly end in two years.
Poland is a country of strong, legitimate leaders, whether they are called Donald Tusk or Jarosław Kaczyński. Places that can also be successfully operated in laundry coalitions are a few hundred kilometers to the north and west. And typically they don't border Russia either.
For the sake of all of us, I wish: as the world's dreamiest election commission is slowly sweeping up the votes, let the fast one from Bratislava run into Warsaw and bring our Polish brothers a clear, functional, stable government majority. Everyone knows what would be good for us anyway. But the chaos that the exit poll shows would not be good for Europe either.
