The Kiev elite and the West face the exhaustion of the Ukrainian counteroffensive with anger mixed with bitterness and disillusionment. As is usually the case, this time the failure has no owner, the shifting of responsibility and pointing at each other has begun.
As a result, the tension is increasing both within the Ukrainian power elite - above all between the military and political leadership - and between Kiev and its Western supporters.
What mistakes have led up to this point, and what are the consequences of the ever-increasing war fatigue?
The lack of a breakthrough, the failed counterattack, stirred up the Western public, which had less and less faith in Ukraine's victory, and Ukrainian domestic political life as well. The Western mainstream criticizes the Ukrainian leadership more and more loudly. The political elites point angrily at Kiev, and the press discusses the state of the war in more and more honest articles, and confronts the public, which is even more visibly tired of the war, with the fact that there is no sign of any Ukrainian victory so far. In addition, the international situation is changing, becoming more and more acute, and as we saw with the flare-up of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, attention is slowly diverting from Ukraine. In the meantime, internal political problems in several countries make it difficult to increase financial and military support for Kiev, but even to maintain the current level.
"As the American situation shows, standing behind Ukraine is becoming more and more difficult. Of course, this does not mean that the West would turn its back on Ukraine, but the moral approach and enthusiasm that has been detached from reality is increasingly being replaced by bitter disillusionment, disappointment and realism."
The mood of the media is also changing. Volodymyr Zelensky, who was positioned as the defender of the Western world and progress a year ago, has now become the center of criticism. More and more people are pointing out the unrealistic goals, the lack of compromise, the scale of corruption in Ukraine, and even the president's dictatorial leadership style.
A good example of this is the American Time magazine, which a year ago chose Zelenskyi as its man of the year, while now it published a devastating article about the Ukrainian leader.
In its report, which received a lot of attention, the weekly claims that the president is detached from reality, is determined to continue the fight, believes himself to be a savior, and believes in Ukraine's victory over Russia with an almost messianic determination. Meanwhile, social discontent and tension within the elite are growing. Some front commanders defy orders, refuse to attack, just sit in the trenches and hold the line. All this is compounded by Zelensky's clearly visible disillusionment with the West. The president is understandably upset and feels betrayed by his allies as he sees it becoming increasingly difficult to finance Ukraine.
"However, before we faint from how realistic the Western mainstream media is beginning to see the situation in Ukraine, I would like to remind you that enthusiastic articles about Ukraine's chances of victory were published in the same newspapers a year ago, and the same journalist who now suddenly strikes a critical tone, Simon Shuster presented Zelenskyi, who defended democracy, as a hero. But the same mainstream labeled as Russian propaganda all that he claims now"
It may seem that reality has come against the Western mainstream as well, and it accepts what the realist political school has been claiming since February 24, 2022, and admits that this war is unwinnable, and Ukraine is forced to get out of it with a loss of territory. However, this mainstream is rather disillusioned and angry, because the dream it imagined is getting further and further away, Russia cannot be defeated.
But instead of admitting that he misled the public, he is looking for a scapegoat, like the political elite, and is now pointing the finger at the Ukrainian leadership.
Yet the Kiev elite is the same now as it was at the outbreak of the war, only then the Western mainstream did not want to see it. There is nothing new in what is happening now, such as the worsening of the relationship between Zaluzhny and Zelensky, since the situation was the same a year ago. However, it is a huge difference that a year ago, Ukraine was able to show military successes by advancing on the Kharkiv front. In addition, the United States and the entire West clearly stood by Ukraine.
"But before we feel sorry for Volodymyr Zelenskyi and his team for all this, let's not forget that the Ukrainian elite was a partner in this collusion. While the West turned a blind eye to the swineherds, Zelenskiy on the one hand played the role of the war hero assigned to him, and on the other hand made capital out of the role of victim with good sense. In the meantime, he immersed himself in this game so much that he increasingly believed what he was saying."
The nervousness and anger mixed with the disappointment on his face already at the NATO summit in Vilnius, and most recently on his trip to the United States, is therefore even more understandable. The limelight faded, or at least flickered, the focus was taken by Gáza. However, the show is far from over, it just takes increasingly tragic turns. However, you can't just get out of the role, even if this game seems more and more like a joke. So much so that sometimes even the episodic actors want to play the main role. Thus, Oleksiy Aresztovich, the adviser of the presidential office who was fired in January, who, realizing the increasingly chaotic situation, announced that he would run in the presidential elections and, for the sake of peace, is ready to give up the territories occupied by the Russians.
"The takes more and more absurd turns"
Amid the spectacular escalation of tension between the military and political leadership, for example, the unexpected and strange death of the chief of staff's assistant, Major Hennagiy Chastyakov, has understandably given rise to speculation. According to the official version, he received combat grenades along with a bottle of good whiskey as a birthday present from his colleague, Colonel Timchenko, Zaluzhnyi's deputy, who emphatically agreed to this, but the celebrant saw it as a funny glass at home and sharpened it. According to another version, the major's 13-year-old son started playing with the grenades, Chastyakov took them out of his hands, but the grenade's explosive mechanism went into action. Chastyakov died, his son was seriously wounded. And to make the matter even more confusing, the pictures taken at the scene also show an injection needle. Many people do not believe the official justification and see the presidential administration behind what happened, even though it is not at all ruled out that it was a "birthday accident".
"However, the director hasn't waved yet, so the increasingly embarrassing scenes have to be played through. Even if behind the scenes the actors are already gnawing at each other and everyone wants to take the failure of the performance away with the other – the Ukrainian actors mostly with the director”
And for this, they use the international press again. One after the other, Zelenskiy gives interviews in a desperate, sometimes blackmailing, sometimes threatening tone, and he often receives the messages that hit him more than once through the media like a cold shower. So, for example, NBC recently aired that Western leaders would already sit down to negotiate with the Ukrainians. In the meantime, the foreign press, such as The Economist .
Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzsny admitted in his interview published in the British magazine, and in two articles published in addition, that a stalemate has developed on the fronts, there is no chance of a breakthrough, so instead of maneuvering operations, we can expect protracted positional battles, which favors the Russian side, which continues its grinding tactics. According to the Chief of General Staff, Ukraine needs new military capabilities and military equipment - mainly artillery and air power - in order to break out of the trap of this type of warfare.
"Zaluzhnyi's words in the British magazine can actually be interpreted as a cry for help"
The commander-in-chief feels and sees that the Ukrainian political leadership, the president's team, wants to make him the scapegoat for the failure of the counterattack. Therefore, in addition to acknowledging the tactical errors of the military leadership, he also points to the responsibility of the political elite and the West.
Rightly so, since the military leadership, for example, considered the defense of Bahmut, which required huge sacrifices and gave the Russian side time to build the Surovikin line, unjustified, but the presidential administration wanted to write a heroic story, prestige was more important than practical aspects. But the responsibility of the Western political elite and NATO cannot be avoided either. It was a mistake from the outset to drag Ukraine into a hopeless struggle - the conclusion of peace was prevented in March 2022 - and to make it believe - even if it was not so difficult - that Russia must and can be defeated. Seeing this, it is no coincidence that Moscow sees this war as part of the American proxy war against Russia, in which Ukrainian troops are used as cannon fodder.
"However, it seems that the West deceived not only Ukraine, but also itself, let's not embellish it, deceived it"
In order to launch a counterattack, serious political pressure was placed on Kiev, and the operations were planned by the Ukrainian military leadership together with Western advisers and strategists. After five months, it must be said - Zaluzhny essentially says it - that the Allies conducted an ugly experiment with the Ukrainians. Presumably, no member country of the alliance would have launched an offensive operation in which it did not have artillery and air superiority. But it also seemed that NATO had no direct experience of extensive land operations in the last three decades. Especially not against such a strong opponent. And then we didn't even talk about the fact that it was a reconnaissance and planning error to expect that the Russians' combat morale was low and that they would retreat after the first attacks.
"The year 2023 has shown that Russia can adapt to a protracted war more effectively than Ukraine, which would be unable to continue fighting in the first place without the help of the West."
Russia's reserves are also much larger, and it also appears that the West, which is behind Ukraine, is both unable and unwilling to provide greater support to Kiev than it currently does. He believes that he will achieve his goal - not to let Russia win and to weaken it as much as possible with war - anyway. What will happen to Ukraine is of no interest to him.
Thus, it is also clear that the official Ukrainian narrative based on final victory is collapsing, the war cannot be won by military means, and Kiev will have to sit down and negotiate sooner or later. If it depends on Moscow, it will be later, since time works for them according to their hopes.
Featured image source: magyartudat.com
