The idea of the revival of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy presented in Vladimir Solovyov's live program on the Russian TV channel Rossiya 1 quickly spread to the press, writes Bálint Somkuti, security policy expert, military historian, researcher of the MCC Geopolitics Workshop on Facebook.
Obviously, it is not by chance that such thoughts are voiced on the state channel, which is not exactly famous for its independence, but even as an inveterate sovereignist, republican, and anti-royalist, I toyed with the suggestion. What if…?
But let's start at the beginning. Monarchy 1.0 was carved up along French and, to a lesser extent, British interests after World War I. Because no one thinks that the interests of small nations were the determining factor, right? In a manner typical of colonial empires, the deliberately unjustly drawn borders guaranteed that the successor states of the monarchy felt constantly threatened by the other, so that the Entente powers could intervene as arbitrators in the region at any time. It would be a strange quirk of history if another great power rearranged things according to its own interests and turned back the wheel of time.
Because there should be no doubt about it - and I have already said this in several places - that Vladimir Putin will do everything in his power to teach the West, which so spectacularly expelled his country, a lesson and even humiliate him. Obviously, in the meantime, Russia is doing well, even very well.
Before we get into the benefits of the dream of Russian imperialists fighting against Western imperialists, let's list the conditions that would have to be met in order for the above idea, which seems a bit strange at the moment, to be realized.
The first was raised by the presentation of the idea itself, by the presenter, who is considered by many to be the mouthpiece of the Kremlin. "We, as a military-scientific society, will examine the Europe of the future after our victory." First, therefore, Russia should win in the current "special military operation". Although nothing is set in stone, this does not seem impossible or too far-fetched at the moment.
According to Newsweek, which reports on the news, the TV personality, who regularly talks about the reconquest of NATO and/or American territories previously in Russian hands, probably accepts another condition as well. With his demands in this direction, he is clearly aiming at a situation in which the US becomes incapable of nuclear deterrence or a conventional military response. In theory, this possibility could be ruled out. Interestingly, however, for the first time in its history after 1945, the Japanese security strategy takes into account the possibility that the island nation will have to protect its sovereignty and interests without American help. The latter scenario, in light of Black Lives Matter, the anomalies of the 2020 election, the siege of the Capitol, and the continued lies of the main stream media by the end of 2023, does not seem completely unthinkable at all. However, Russia would not really need anything else for the reorganization of Central and Eastern Europe. Brussels is militarily incapable of defending not only our region, but even itself.
Even in their current weakened state, the countries of Western Europe with a large area and population are too big a bite for the bear. That's why you need a staging area for a "neutral" state between you and the West.
It would be interesting if a reverse cordon sanitaire - "extending from Poland to the Balkans" - was realized, the Russian version of the Western idea. See also the Warsaw Pact, this is what Solovyov's dropped half-sentence refers to: "we would even send our own troops there, lest someone attack them." This would be the first Russian advantage.
If we add geography, what would be the second is revealed. Essentially, a neutral zone between the northern and southern parts of NATO would be created, from France to the Carpathians, a few hundred kilometers long. I don't think the military advantages of this need to be explained.
And thirdly, we can list the cure for the "wounds" of the Russian people's soul, which has been continuously hurt since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the image of the conquering country, which has become a significant factor in world politics.
Let's say, anyone who visited Hévíz before 2022, and especially the spa, or at any time in the last 20 years in a Turkish all-inclusive hotel, can imagine exactly what consequences this will have.
The question arises, what would we win? Obviously, the sad situation of the Hungarians across the border, for which neither the EU nor NATO has done anything in the world to improve, would undergo a significant positive change when the Trianon borders would disappear within a state community or otherwise. We also cannot forget that a unified economy would be created, similar to the Monarchy that existed in 1699 (not 1687, Mr. Solovyov!), but rather between 1867 and 1918. A mini-EU, whose rules we could have a say in like those of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy, would only work without the distorting ideological effects of Brussels. A receptive market would be created where excellent quality Hungarian foodstuffs and the re-industrialized Hungarian economy would start from a unique position.
Of course, there are questions, in fact, there are only those.
Exactly along which borders and in which form of government? Would there still be a monarchy? Who would be the ruler? See Hungarian interests above, but what would be the interests of the other participants in joining?
Solovyov mentioned the Mediterranean Sea, but I think he meant the Adriatic. On the one hand, Slovenia and Croatia would never join a state in which Serbs are also present. On the other hand, they have integrated so deeply and in such a proportion to the West, even in the LGBTQ/gender perspective, that I find it difficult to see the chance of their reintegration. Let's say I'm not really afraid of a literally "rainbow" revolution. What about Austria's hundreds of thousands of migrants? And the list could be continued for a long time.
Let's just say that this is an interesting thought experiment, but it raises many more problems than would be solved by such a state structure put together on orders from above. In any case, where is the kurukos virtus left?! "Eb lord pale Emperor József is not our king!"
However, one thing is certain, the Russian intention to completely redraw the military-political-economic balance of power in our region has already clearly appeared. That is, the borders. I have been saying for a long time that President Putin's stated intention is to strike back at the West in one way or another. One thing is really worth paying attention to. When will the notoriously unreliable Romanians (6 betrayals in 60 years) start negotiating the transition.
Featured image: Facebook/Dr. Bálint Somkuti
