Hungary XXI will be decided now. the direction of its history in the 20th century - described in an article retired major general József Horváth, the security policy advisor of the Center for Basic Rights, who was now a guest of the Civil Academy. It would be difficult to argue with this statement, because this year in the light of the EU elections and the US presidential election can really be a turning point. But who would have thought even a decade ago that a part of the world would be so upset and lose its mind? Certainly not the average citizen. And the expert?
- We could really believe that the age of world peace had arrived, that nothing like the tragedies that happened to our parents and grandparents could happen to us. Then it turned out not to be true. For me, this was not a surprise, because after the regime change I was able to work in the world of the Hungarian secret service, I could see and experience that the struggle between the services did not stop under the surface. In fact, it has become more difficult, because if a service is committed to its country, then there is only national interest, which also means that if two secret services cooperate in some area, for example against terrorism or organized crime, they may have conflicting interests in other areas.
It is a confusing situation that yesterday we worked together on an issue, but tomorrow we may already be opponents.
We saw this, we sensed that if national interests, let's say economic interests, have to be enforced, there is no excuse.
– Knowing this, the Russian-Ukrainian war also looks a little different. Practically, this conflict has been going on since 2014-15, people were constantly killing each other in the Donbass, but it was only in 2022 that we realized that, oh my God, what is happening here? The Russians attacked Ukraine! However, we stuck our heads in the sand for 10-12 years. Now a service works well, and this is exemplified by the Russian-Ukrainian and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, if they are not smart after the fact, but foresee certain processes. Of course, this is terribly difficult. If the state and civil organizations work well - because this work is also increasingly carried out by civil enterprises - then by analyzing and evaluating open information they can notice certain deep processes. You don't have to think about big things, I'll give you an example: China.
– There was a time, even 5-10 years ago, when we said that it was Chinese, it meant crap. Józsefváros market, we know it. But 10 years ago, the Chinese, for example, decided to start developing their shipping industry. Currently, China's capacity is said to be 10 times that of the United States. Of course, it's not just about warships, but all kinds of floating vessels, including oil tankers, grain cargo ships, and aircraft carriers. Or think about the production of electric cars. The Chinese company BYD has outgrown Tesla, but how? It has been many years since China has taken over lithium mines all over the world. No one paid much attention to this, as lithium is an important raw material for battery production.
The strengthening of China is due to such "little things", which the services did not notice in time.
– The responsibility of the secret services in the Russian-Ukrainian war is an even more spectacular question, but even more so in the tragic beginning of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. We could also say that the Israeli service made a mistake, but the situation is not that simple. We tend to think only of the MOSZAD, but not a single such service operates in the Jewish state, there is also military and civilian intelligence, so the responsibility cannot be shifted to the MOSZAD alone. In order to understand what happened, we have to go back to just one year before the attack. After the establishment of the Netanyahu government, mass demonstrations started in Israel's major cities as if by magic. The new government has not yet taken any meaningful measures, but they already feared democracy and protested against the establishment of a dictatorship. We are well aware of these slogans, with which they take to the streets in Europe, America and Israel. Former army generals and former heads of the secret service also spoke out against the reigning government at the Israeli demonstrations.
– The problem with this is that these are messages to both the army and the secret services that divide the services. However, if the people of the service become insecure, if they turn their backs on each other, thinking about which side their colleague plays football for and who he is committed to, if they come to power, will they cut my throat, well, this will block the work of the services and, where appropriate, the flow of information too. That's why I think so
the result of this division in the decisive part was that the brutal Hamas terrorist action occurred.
I am convinced that the existing information did not reach the appropriate decision-making level in time, because no one should tell me that the Israeli secret services were only collecting technical information, while Hamas was incredibly cunning. Here, it was not three terrorists who joined forces, but an attack by thousands of people had to be prepared, weapons brought in from abroad, these tunnel systems built, and the attack planned and coordinated. It is impossible that the Israeli services did not have agents in these groups. The information simply slipped out and did not reach where it should have. If I am not permissive, then the opponents of the Netanyahu government thought that what will happen, if I am more permissive, then I think they did not believe that the story would have such a terrible end.
You can watch the entire evening of the Civil Academy here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A2-47e8UsU
Photo: Levente Görgényi / Civilek.info
