Závecz Research published a recent opinion poll, according to which Fidesz-KDNP led the parties' EP list competition at the end of May. At the same time, the Tisza Party was measured to be stronger than ever before.
to ATV, among others - it was written that
31 percent of the voting-age population supports the ruling party. The Tisza Party was in second place, with 19 percent, and the DK–MSZP–Párbeszéd list was third with 9 percent support.
Momentum 4, Mi Hazánk 3, the Hungarian Kétfarkú Kutya Párt and the LMP have 2 percent each. Within the total population, the People's Party for Everyone's Hungary, the Second Reform Period Party and Jobbik stood at 1 percent each at the end of May and the beginning of June.
Among voters who promised the Commissioner's participation and could choose between the EP lists, Fidesz-KDNP reached 45 percent, Tisza Party 27 percent, and the DK-MSZP-Párbeszéd list 11 percent.
In addition to these parties - taking statistical aspects and error margins into account - at the time of data collection, two parties seem to have a chance to become EP representatives. One is Mi Hazánk, which has 5 percent of the sure list voters behind it and would thus gain a representative, the other is Momentum, which stands at 4 percent. If this remains the case, they will not have a representative, but if they reach 5 percent, they can also send a representative to the EP. The Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Pártó was measured at only 3 percent, and the LMP at 2 percent, among certain voters.
The competition is getting tighter, one mandate of Momentum can also have a say
According to the results of the public opinion poll, this is why
• Fidesz would have 11 mandates,
• 7 for the Tisza Party,
• 2 of the DK–MSZP–Párbeszéd list,
• Mi Hazánk would have 1 representative in the European Parliament.
Závecz Research also noted:
if Momentum were to reach 5 percent, then - according to the current situation - it would not change the number of mandates of Fidesz, but would presumably reduce the Tisza Party by one.
As it was written, campaign events and the level of mobilization can still significantly influence the balance of power. In this regard, it was also noted that the willingness to participate among supporters of DK–MSZP–Párbeszéd and Momentum is currently 53% and 42%, respectively. 66 percent of the Mi Hazánk camp, 62 percent of Fidesz-KDNP supporters, and 60 percent of Tisza Party voters promise that they will definitely be there on June 9.
The research took place between May 24 and June 2, with 1,000 people who together represent the country's population aged 18 and over. In the case of a sample of 1,000 people, the data obtained during the public opinion poll may differ by a maximum of plus/minus 3.2 percent from what they would have received if every person of voting age in the country was asked, Závecz wrote.
Source: ATV
According to previous surveys, this is how the fate of the mandates may turn out
In recent days, we have reported on several other surveys, among which there were some differences regarding the expected mandates.
• The Euractiv news portal's Europe Elects mandate estimate - after a correction - predicted that only Fidesz, Tisza and the left-wing coalition would enter the EP. They expect 11 Fidesz, 6 Tisza, and 4 DK–MSZP–Párbeszéd mandates (it is interesting that they also considered Mi Hazánka to be a candidate, but not Momentum. However, the Two-Tailed Dogs were similarly listed).
• From the joint estimate of five Hungarian research institutes, it appeared that five parties could enter the EP. These institutes also saw Mi Hazánká and Two-Tailed Dogs near the entrance threshold.
• Median's recent survey also reported that Fidesz and the Tisza Party have gained strength, while the support of the DK-MSZP-Párbeszéd list has decreased, although it still has a secure place in the European Parliament. They listed Momentum and Mi Hazánk above the entrance threshold, at 6 and 5 percent respectively (Kéttrakú Kutyás was measured at 4 percent).
Featured image: MTI/Zoltán Balogh
