Autumn started with a heat alarm, the temperature is close to forty degrees, but a forecast for winter and Christmas also appeared recently.
According to the ECMWF European forecast model, a dry, mild winter is expected across Europe. The report also revealed that a larger amount of snowfall can only be expected in the Scandinavian regions at best.
As for Hungary, the forecast is not very promising for us.
It seems that we will have a warmer winter than usual, as we are among the regions that are heavily affected by climate change. As the models showed, if precipitation is expected in the winter months, it is almost certain that it will not come in the form of snow.
Although some meteorological runs suggest that even a white Christmas and a colder winter period may arrive this year, it would be too early to make a responsible statement about the exact definition at the beginning of September. In terms of the weather, it is possible to make and publish a confident forecast and prognosis with an accuracy of 6-7 days, a meteorologist told Index.
He added that according to the above forecast, the La Nina (girl child) phenomenon, which can also be understood as the opposite of El Nino (boy child), may intensify. When this occurs, the rising water cold currents in the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean will strengthen (so the temperature of the ocean water will be a few degrees colder than usual), and the eastern trade winds will prevail more. It is also known as a cold episode, it stabilizes the atmosphere, said the meteorologist.
According to the forecast, all this means that during the forecasted, mild and dry winter, there will be cooler periods from time to time. As the expert said: usually a warm episode is followed by a cold episode, but it doesn't always happen that way - since the frequency of La Nina is approximately half that of the El Nino phenomenon.
On its Facebook page, HungaroMet shared several probability diagrams about Hungary's weather.
As reported, "the cold fronts that appear in the forecasts "evaporate" after a few days, that is, their path and strength change so much that they do not reach our region, or only in a much weaker form. Thus, cooling and increasing chances of precipitation are constantly being shifted, or even completely disappearing from the forecasts, they added.
The national chief medical officer Cecília Müller has extended the heat alert issued on August 24 for the entire country until September 5, so a second degree heat alert will remain in effect, according to the joint statement of the National Center for Public Health and Pharmaceuticals (NNGYK) and the National Directorate General of Disaster Management.
The last time the heat lasted in September was in 2015. According to the NNGYK, it is important to continue to pay sufficient attention to precautions against prolonged heat.
Cover image: Autumn also started with a heat alarm
Source: Pixabay.com
