In 2020, the world, including Hungary, entered the age of danger, the horrors of the coronavirus epidemic and war, as well as the unpredictable international environment, fundamentally changed life. In such a situation, the role of those politicians who are able to radiate strength and who are capable of crisis management, in short, capable of governing, is enhanced - reads the XXI. In the analysis of the 19th Century Institute.

According to the study, after the events of recent years, the current period can be called with certainty the age of dangers, in which those countries can remain successful, which are led by governments that are crisis-proof and able to respond quickly to the changed environment.

They added: in addition to epidemics and war, a natural challenge such as the threat of flooding can also be considered a crisis. The Danube flood a few weeks ago was the biggest flood of the decade, the last time it was experienced in 2013.

In emergency situations such as an epidemic, war or flood, the majority of people expect cooperation and cooperation from political actors, and those who use such trials for political gain will be punished, they wrote.

This happened during the 2020 coronavirus epidemic, when the left-liberal side attacked the government and the epidemiologic agencies.

They emphasized that situations of emergency put political actors to the test: those who behave responsibly and can act as a governing force can be strengthened.

They went on to say that it is worth examining Péter Magyar's actions during the 2024 flood defense from this point of view, since as a new political actor he showed for the first time how he behaves in an actual crisis situation.

The XXI. According to the Century Institute, Péter Magyar spectacularly attacked the official bodies involved in the defense, which was quite counterproductive for him. Although he quickly attacked the subject of the flood, he also made serious mistakes in his haste, because he clearly used the flood situation for his own political gain, and attacked the government and the official bodies organizing the defense even from the side of the dams.

The words of the politician were also rejected by the national defense, disaster management and water experts, and the representatives of the government also reacted clearly, as they said: there is no place for politics on the dams.

Accordingly, Viktor Orbán spoke about the fact that there are no party badges on the dams, only people defending themselves, but even Ferenc Gyurcsány, who constantly attacks the government, assessed what a politician should do in this situation - the analysis evaluates, adding that even the leader of the DK did not attack him the government or the official bodies involved in the defense, he communicated particularly restrainedly during the crisis-laden days.

All this, according to the analysis, eerily revives the behavior of the left-liberal opposition during the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war, which also chose this tactic at the time.

Péter Magyar wrote on his social media page, for example, regarding flood protection, that in his opinion no flood protection development has taken place in Hungary for ten years, he precisely asked Viktor Orbán: " why the Danube dam sections promised in 2013 were not built", and he pretended that nothing had happened. would have happened in this case in the last decade.

According to the analysis, this behavior had political consequences: the Nézőpont Institute investigated the change in party preferences and registered the weakening of Péter Magyar's party.

In the week before the disaster, the government parties led the party race with a 45 percent share, followed by the Tisza Party (35 percent), ten percentage points behind them, and two more parties, DK (6 percent) and Mi Hazánk (5 percent), were the threshold for entry. over.

After the defense, the Fidesz-KDNP voting base increased by two percentage points to 47 percent compared to the week before the flood. The research company highlighted: Prime Minister Viktor Orbán personally checked the most critical points of flood protection every day from the first day and gave a situation report on the protection.

They added that the voting base of the Tisza Party decreased by two percentage points to 33 percent in the same period. The current popularity of the governing parties corresponds to the summer support, but at the same time, Péter Magyar's party lost the party competition during the flood defense, they concluded.

"In the light of the above, the difference between Viktor Orbán and Péter Magyar is clearly visible: the former acts in accordance with social expectations in crisis situations and can manage them successfully, while the latter cannot act as a responsible leader and does not present an alternative capable of governing. The situation was similar in the case of former left-liberal actors, who went against the expectations of the social majority during the defense against the 2013 flood and the epidemic, as well as in the case of the war, and attacked the defense and took a pro-war position," the analysis states.

MTI

Cover photo: In the photo published by the Prime Minister's Press Office, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (b) inspects the flood protection works along the Lajta River in the Hegyeshalom area on September 17, 2024. The head of government gave permission to open the emergency reservoir between the main Lajta channel and the Balparti Channel. In the middle is István Láng, director general of the National Directorate General of Water.
MTI/Prime Minister's Press Office/Zoltán Fischer