The ruling party alliance has as many sympathizers in total as it had voters including foreigners in 2022.
Fidesz-KDNP (44 percent) would win a parliamentary election this Sunday, while the Tisza Party would achieve 35 percent. Mi Hazánk (seven percent) and the Democratic Coalition (six percent) would also enter the National Assembly - Real-PR 93 announced the results of its new public opinion poll.
They investigated which party voters would vote for in a parliamentary election to be held this Sunday. The results are also valid on the basis of the entire population and registered voters.
Among the entire population, Fidesz-KDNP has 38 percent support, which, based on the data of the 2022 census, corresponds to three million Fidesz sympathizers participating in the election or staying away from it. Thus, even taking into account the margin of error for the entire population, the governing parties lead by a significant margin.
With its 25 percent support, the Tisza Party can appeal to a maximum of 1.98 million sympathizers. 320,000 people in the entire population sympathize with Mi Hazánk, while 240,000 people sympathize with the Democratic Coalition.
Among sure voters, 44 percent support the government parties. This would also mean a clear advantage exceeding the margin of error, i.e. an election victory for Fidesz-KDNP.
In total, Fidesz has as many sympathizers as it had voters including foreigners in 2022.
A key question for the ruling party is whether it can mobilize its currently much less active supporters until the next elections.
The Tisza Party could achieve a result of 35 percent among those who are certain to participate, thereby improving its June EP election result by five percentage points, but it is still nine percentage points behind the government parties.
Thus, the support of the Tisza Party will reach the popularity of the joint list led by Péter Márki-Zay in 2022.
The fact that the Tisza Party was able to gain strength at the expense of the left also applies to the period after the EP elections.
Mi Hazánk has seven percent, while the Democratic Coalition has six percent among certain voters. With the support of the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party of four percent, it would probably achieve a result below the five percent parliamentary threshold.
In the countryside, the support of Fidesz-KDNP is outstanding, at 47 percent, while in the capital, 33 percent declare themselves pro-government among sure voters. On the other hand, the Tisza Party can show greater support in Budapest (42 percent), while it has 33 percent support in the rest of the country.
The public opinion survey was conducted on October 28–30, 2024, by telephone interviews of a thousand people. among adult society in terms of gender, age and place of residence in a representative sample. The margin of error is +/-3.2 percent at most.
Cover image: Fidesz's advantage is more than one million
Source: Facebook/Máté Kocsis
