Zoltán Kiszelly at the Civil Academy: The battleground states, including a few tens of thousands of voters, will decide the fate of the world

Political scientist Zoltán Kiszelly, director of political analysis of Századvég, is the guest of the Civic Academy organized by the Civil Solidarity Forum, the Civil Solidarity Public Foundation and the Community of Spiritual Defenders, taking place in the Citizens' House, the theme of which is: The media fog and the real face of war.

Russia's war against Ukraine is just one of the events questioning international peace and security. Another thing that maintains the possibility of a larger conflict in the Middle East is the war in Gaza. The Russo-Ukrainian war is the most serious military conflict in Europe since the Second World War, as a result of which nearly 8 million people fled their homelands to neighboring countries. We need to see that the West does not have the will and power, nor enough money, so it does not have real practical superiority over Russia, moderator Anett Szabó pointed out in her introduction.

On the eve of the American presidential election, everyone is paying attention to the United States, because a completely new world order will surely begin the day after tomorrow. "If the Americans make the right decision, then Ambassador Pressmann can pack, he would have more time for his family and less time for promotions with us. Opinion polls show differences within the margin of error, the competition is close. The battleground states, including a few tens of thousands of voters within them, will decide the fate of the world," Kiszelly pointed out.

The political scientist pointed out: the eyes of the world are fixed on the American rust belts. “The choice is up to black men whether they want to vote for a woman or whether they want to vote for someone who is not quite black. The question is whether the people living in the rust zones want to see new immigrants in their own environment, who represent competition for them," Kiszelly pointed out.

"Every election is decided by two things: hope and change. Also, which one turns out to be more important. Kamala Harris now embodies hope, she promises to change, transform and work much better than before. Harris is selling hope, he is trying to make us believe that after the arrival of 6-8 million migrants, they will finally tighten up in this way in the fourth year of the Biden administration.

Donald Trump embodies change. It seems to me that there are more people from Budapest who want change, since the majority of Americans live worse than before Covid, when there was full employment in the USA.

We Hungarians know this situation, that whoever wants to work can work and can live off his salary. You can see what we also experience in Europe, that although Americans earn well, they live on credit: the average American has student loans, home loans, car loans and credit card loans. Until now, they have been able to pay their loans, but now the base interest rate is high, which is why the loan interest rate is also high, so no matter how hard they work, they can't go from one to the other," Kiszelly explained the situation, according to whom the American dream is now shattered.

The American economy is performing well, much better compared to the European one, since the growth is 3 percent, while, for example, it is zero in Germany. Thanks to Biden's measures, a lot of companies are moving to the USA. European companies get gas in America for a quarter of what they get in Europe.

“The economy is spinning, but it's not trickling down to the middle or lower classes. Trump promises to hit the table and bring jobs home. He has already done this once and people believe that he can do it again. Thus, the German car factory will no longer be built in Mexico, but in the USA, creating American jobs and driving the American economy," emphasized the political scientist, adding that the Democrats' economic policy simply does not show up in the population's standard of living. Trump also promises tax cuts, so people would have more money and could spend more, which would also be an important consideration for voters.

Trump's Ukraine peace plan was leaked a few days ago. “The war in Ukraine is about separating Europe from Russian energy and Chinese trade. Half of that has already happened. The globalists made sure that Trump could not stop the war. We see that most of the investors in Ukraine are Americans, they are behind the Ukrainian grain production. In addition, the EU borrows from US companies to finance the war, which benefits US arms manufacturers. So Brussels made war certain for Trump by voting for the European peace framework. We Hungarians did not take our share of this, thank God," Kiszelly pointed out.

The political scientist emphasized: the rainbow coalitions were needed, that's why the dollars rolled into Hungary to secure the votes for these decisions, even if they were not successful. Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg asked the member states for 200 billion, of which they approved 40 billion, but they will accept 40 again next year - meaning that NATO will still finance the Ukrainian war.

The political scientist also pointed out that Donald Trump did not start a war during his presidency, so it can be expected that if he were to come to power again, he would once again try to resolve conflicts through negotiations.

"Annalena Baerboock says the war must continue, Macron would send Western soldiers to Ukraine... But Trump does not want to go to war. This is the huge difference," emphasized Kiszelly.

When asked by Anett Szabó what Russia's goal was with the war, Kiszelly answered the following: Moscow had three goals: the first was to maintain the export of Russian energy carriers, the second was to make Russia a leading state in a multipolar world, and the third was to He is modernizing Russia, and for that he needs the Chinese.

Every century there is a great war that defines international relations. Now it will be decided who will rule this century: the Americans or the Chinese - stressed Kiszelly, who said that the Russians want to return to the Yalta world order. Russia is a nuclear power, has all natural resources, and thanks to climate change, there will be more and more arable land due to the melting of permafrost.

"The goal here is not for Russia and Ukraine to go to war, but to completely separate Europe from Russia and China," Kiszelly repeated.

"Putin stated his goals, the first of which is that Ukraine cannot be a member of the West. And the Ukrainians are asking for either NATO membership or nuclear weapons. The one who has the upper hand always doesn't want to negotiate. Right now the Russians don't want to negotiate peace," pointed out Kiszelly, who says that the Westerners also have an interest in prolonging the war, as they can test weapons in addition to financial gain.

"According to imperial logic, the prolongation of the war is very good, as it burns up the resources of the Russians, the Iranians, and the Chinese. I think the Americans plan to make Europe their home market. Rainbow coalitions support war worldwide. If the Czechs and Poles invest their resources not in education and infrastructure, but in war, there will be no economic growth there either. War devalues ​​everything, diverts resources in one direction, and stops development. While the USA is constantly developing," Kiszelly emphasized, adding that the goal of the USA is for Europe to always stay one step behind America.

"In America, the president is an important player, but if he doesn't have a majority in the House of Representatives, he can't pass the budget, and if he doesn't have a majority in the Senate, he can't vote on personal decisions," Kiszelly pointed out that Trump's victory would not in itself mean progress for US politics in its change.

"Viktor Orbán is the only Western leader who thinks in terms of peace. Recently, Robert Fico stands by him. If Trump were to side with them, it would have serious weight. Trump's victory would mean that he would constantly talk about peace, and then Ursula and Manfred would have to start talking about peace," emphasized Kiszelly.

The political scientist reminded: the USA has not rushed to help the Ukrainians in the war so far, it sent 31 Abrams tanks to Kiev, even though there are 5,000 greased in the desert, so it might as well do it. He also pointed out that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi is an actor who often plays roles.

"The Americans are giving defensive weapons to the Ukrainians. And if the Americans do it, so will the Germans. The French and the English do not have enough offensive weapons to give the Ukrainians a meaningful result. The goal of the USA is not to end the war "too soon", since China has not yet been separated from Europe. And the goal of the USA is for Wall Street to win again," stated Kiszelly.

Speaking about the conflict in the Middle East, Kiszelly said: the Europeans, the Hungarians and the Muslims, the blacks, watch two separate cinemas.

"We see that the Muslims attacked Israel and massacred 1,200 people. The rest of the world is seeing a new episode in an old conflict. During Trump's first presidency, he reconciled Israel and part of the Arab world with the Abraham Accords. Hamas had to carry out this brutal attack from Gaza last year because they knew what kind of response Israel would give, which could prevent the conclusion of new Abraham agreements. For Israel, human life is important, for the Palestinians, infrastructure. This is why the Israelis are destroying Palestinian infrastructure and Hamas is destroying the Israeli people. The public opinion of Muslim countries watches Muslim cinema and thus it was possible to prevent Saudi Arabia's reconciliation with Israel. This is a brutal geopolitical game. President Trump will again try to bring the Saudis and Israel together, but he will not succeed due to the worsening of the situation," stated Kiszelly.

Trump is serious about ending the conflict in the Middle East, which is why he sent a message to Benjamin Netanyahu, Kiszelly emphasized, adding that it is in Netanyahu's interest to prolong the war.

"The leaders of Eastern countries have been in power for a long time, and in the West we don't even have to remember their names, they change so often. But whoever is in power in the Western states, they always vote for what is needed. In America, the Gaza issue is considered important among minorities. Today, it is no longer appropriate to refer to Greta Thumberg, who was a real icon not so long ago, since the cute little Greta says nasty things about Israel, says things that don't even tolerate printing ink," the political scientist pointed out.

At the BRICS summit, the organization was expanded to include five large countries, and new ones were also invited, including Turkey, which is a member of NATO.

"Turkey applied for admission to the EU 60 years ago, but was not admitted there, so the Turks can now think that they will have a better place in the BRICS. The heads of six international organizations, including the UN Secretary General, participated in the summit, which was attended by 35 countries, and 24 were represented at the level of heads of state and government. These countries want to create an alternative to SWIFT. The Russians want their own clearing system after being kicked out of SWIFT. The BRICS countries also want their own grain exchange, instead of the American one. They want to eventually create a hydrocarbon exchange from this grain exchange. And they want to settle all of this in their own currency," Kiszelly explained the processes.

Rural white men are all voting for Trump. And now they are trying to separate the wives, sisters, and sisters of these men with the abortion issue. The Poles succeeded in doing this, now the Harrises are trying to do the same, added Kiszelly.

As one of the events of the Hungarian EU Presidency, this week Budapest will host the EPK, the summit of the European Political Community. "The purpose of this is to have a common forum for all EU countries and countries that want to join. Enlargement will take place if the EU switches to majority voting. The 27 EU countries, the British, and the six Western Balkans will negotiate. Last year's similar meeting was held in Moldova, where Joseph Borrell announced such a program, saying that only a part of Cyprus joined the EU, and this model could be followed in Moldova as well. This is a kind of deception, since the West's goal is for the countries that want to join to move away from Russia. Now the young people of these countries will no longer want to go to Moscow to study, but to the West. This is a serious fear of the Russians, since not so long ago the young people of these countries went to Moscow.

Today, the West is the role model for those wishing to join, and the goal of this organization is to turn these countries towards the West as soon as possible and as decisively as possible," explained Kiszelly.

The political scientist also spoke about the situation in Germany. He said that the members of the Berlin government coalition, if the election were held now, would receive 30 percent. “Germany is on the floor, partly through its own fault and partly because of the explosion of gas pipelines. Their own mistake was that they planned to build 50 gas power plants after decommissioning the nuclear power plants. They are built in such a way that they could be converted into hydrogen power plants with little investment. However, this is a very expensive technology. The bottom line is that the gas intended for the gas power plants does not arrive via the exploded pipelines, so energy has become extremely expensive," explained Kiszelly, who says that the Germans have become "comfortable" with the euro. "The Germans, Austrians, and Dutch can no longer put more money into the eurozone. In Germany, the elite must face the question of how they can renew the German economy in such a way as to preserve Europe and Europe. And this set is not capable of that," explained the analyst, explaining why we are seeing a coalition crisis in Berlin.