Markets reacted the best to the victory of a Republican politician, which has not been seen in years. Written by Anton Bendarzhevsky.
"Someone explain to me the following logical somersaults, all press products and social media are full of them now anyway. In recent days, after the Covid, Afghan and Russian-Ukraine experts, many millions of people have suddenly trained themselves as Trump experts.
1. Thesis: Trump is coming and it will be very, very bad for everyone, because there are crises and conflicts anyway, and Trump is almost like the III. will start a world war.
A logical fallacy: the past 3 years have brought the worst international processes of the past decades. Russia invaded Ukraine and has been waging a devastating war in our neighborhood ever since. USA withdrew from Afghanistan. Israel was attacked by Hamas and the region has been in turmoil ever since. Many previously frozen conflicts have entered a heated, armed phase (e.g. Karabah).
During this time, who was in power in the United States, the world's hegemonic superpower? Trump? Not. The Democratic administration, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. All of the listed events, which took the world to perhaps the lowest point since the Cuban Missile Crisis, took place during this time. How would all this have happened anyway? Maybe yes, maybe not. But it is worth seeing that international relations are about power projection and deterrence. If the United States appeared weak, it emboldened its opponents that now was the time to act. On the other hand, I think that the American responses to the crises were far from good.
2. Thesis: the world is still in a difficult situation, but if Trump comes, then the world crisis and collapse will definitely come.
Logical fallacy: the markets reacted the best to Trump's victory, which has not been seen in years. The shares of the world's largest companies strengthened, the dollar strengthened, and even bitcoin reached its historic peak after the collapse of previous years. What's more, the markets sensed Trump's victory much more than the pollsters and the press.
3. Thesis: if Trump comes, then political revenge will come and all his political opponents will be behind bars for political reasons, be afraid!
Logical fallacy: USA is a democracy, the separation of powers works here. The judiciary is independent, no one can be convicted just like that. What's more, a pile of criminal proceedings against Biden's opponent, Donald Trump, was initiated not under Trump, but under the Democratic administration. And murderous attacks were also not against Biden or Harris, but against Trump. Twice as well.
4. Thesis: now that Trump is coming, American democracy is over. He will eliminate order in the USA, the 1933 moment is coming, etc., etc.
Logical fallacy: they were exactly the same savages against Trump in 2016. But no matter what, American democracy has not been destroyed, in fact. But as if there hadn't been a Trump cycle before, the old theses come up again and again, and people resolutely believe in them (and come up with a series of reasons why Trump failed to build a dictatorship then, but more on that now!).
See the previous point: the USA is a democracy, which nothing proves better than the elections held in 2024. Checks and balances work in America. The democratic government has shown what it can do in the last 4 years. Now let the other side show you."
Featured Image: Former U.S. President Donald Trump, Republican presidential nominee, speaks at a conference of the conservative organization Turning Point Action in West Palm Beach, Florida on July 26, 2024. The presidential election will be held on November 5 in the United States. MTI/EPA/Cristobal Herrera
