Fidesz doesn't even get into parliament. After that, our uncle named Reality appears again and tapped your stupid heads with his stick...
If we continue like this, the "pollsters" will surprise their "public opinion" with this around January. And it's been like this for many, many years. One of the hallmarks of fools is that they always do the same thing and always expect a different result. Just like these "pollsters" of ours on the other side.
Even Medián once had some professional ethos, but ever since Endre Hann lost all his lawsuits against Gábor Kálomista (Hann wanted to ban the film ElkXrtuk), since then his unhappiness has driven him crazy, and he has joined the ranks of the stupid, shouting along with the chorus. Now, for example, he has the glorious task, he was given the mandate to trumpet to the world ("Transdanubia, Alföld, together in the fight, we wave our flag - wave"), according to which Tisza already leads Fidesz by eleven percent.
Well of course. And it's always like this, it always happens like this, they always lead - then comes the Fidesz two-thirds.
And then maybe we can examine factually, with accurate and rich data, how the opposition has always led in these cases. Let's first see how the Index reasoned and lamented on April 8, 2018, right before the parliamentary elections, of course based on the data of public opinion pollsters:
"As you can see, Fidesz is measured between 39 and 52 percent, Jobbik between 13 and 25, and MSZP between 11 and 19 percent. These are considered a huge difference, it is quite absurd, for example, that there is almost a double difference between the data at Jobbik."
Off to a good start, huh? But let's see further:
"The reason for the duality is that (the institutes themselves openly talk about this) there are systematic distortions in the net measurements: all institutes, even those close to the government, believe that Fidesz is superior."
Well of course. We're used to it. Fidesz is always "surpassed".
"[…] it is assumed that some of the opposition sympathizers do not want to openly accept their opinion even in an anonymous survey. However, no one really knows how common it is. Although there are approximate methods for estimating those who refuse to answer, this is an eternal problem of public opinion polls, and we do not know exactly how this phenomenon has changed in Hungary in recent years, either out of fear, caution, or for any other reason - while it is a world trend that it is much more difficult to get people to speak people than, say, twenty years ago.”
That never changes either. The opposition voters are afraid to admit their party sympathies in this terrible dictatorship - but the moment of truth will come before the polls! And it really always comes…
Self-disclosure: Endre Hann admitted that their survey showing the Tisza's advantage is misleading
And, of course, Gábor Török also had intuitions in 2018 before the elections, he is in politics like Biri Vajákos in Matyi Lúdas:
"Gábor Török has spoken in recent days that: based on the "conservative" forecast, it is difficult to imagine that Fidesz will not obtain at least an absolute majority, but the "gut feeling" points in the direction of surprise.
Although Török himself does not measure, it seems that the semi-confessed intuitive estimation plays a bigger role in public opinion polls.
What can you expect then? Several people emphasize that in this situation one can only predict very carefully. Above all, this does not apply to party lists, but to the individual districts that basically determine the final result. However, three institutes, Median, Nézőpont and Republikon, took the risk of mandate estimation. The uncertainty is precisely shown by how big the differences are here: while the Median predicts a Fidesz victory of almost two-thirds (at first more than that, then they were a little more cautious in their estimate based on their most recent measurement, but the exact numbers have not yet been published, so it is not included here ), Republikon and Nézőpont expect a much more modest result from the point of view of the ruling party. Four years ago, Nézőpont, which was deplored by many and close to the government, most accurately predicted the actual result, and in the last elections, Median delivered the most reliable figures overall. On Sunday night, it will be clear who was right in 2018."
Yes, the "regretted" Viewpoint. And yes, then on Sunday night it really came out.
Then, after the 2018 elections, the same ones started to explain - listen closely!
"Almost everyone expected that if there was a high turnout, it would be good for the opposition, some even considered it possible that Fidesz might fall short of the record turnout. There was logic in this: in the past, Fidesz always performed well or very well when relatively few people voted, and the opinion polls showed that the opposition parties may still have substantial reserves.
The turnout was high, 70 percent, yet Fidesz won a complete victory. They repeated their two-thirds success in 2014 in such a way that now many more people went - they can safely say that now they have received such legitimacy and authorization as never before. In addition to the fact that they also swept individually, the list result of over 48 percent is quite amazing, much better than in 2014 (it was 43.5 percent at the time). […] As you can see, almost everyone underestimated Fidesz significantly, and almost everyone overestimated the opposition parties.”
Now tell me! Well, who would have thought!?
And then let's take an exciting, frowning look at the 2022 election - let's first see who measured what then, before the election!
In the 2022 parliamentary elections, Fidesz received 54.1 percent and again won a two-thirds majority. The united opposition led by Márki-Zay Paprikjancsi received 34.4 percent - these are the facts. And then let's see the estimates, the "measurements"!
, Publicus published this "measurement": Fidesz: 47 percent, united opposition: 47 percent - Fidesz was under-measured by only 7.1 percent, and the opposition was over by 13 percent.
The Century March 24–27. between: Fidesz: 49 percent, united opposition: 44 percent - the error is 5 and 10 percent, respectively.
The Point of View March 23–25. between measured exactly the same.
Idea , March 22-28: Fidesz: 50 percent, united opposition: 45 percent - the error is 4 and 11 percent, respectively.
Median, March 24-26: Fidesz: 50 percent, united opposition: 40 percent - the error is 4 and 6 percent, respectively.
Závecz Research , March 21–27: Fidesz: 39 percent, united opposition: 36 percent - the error is 15 and 2 percent respectively, Fidesz is "only" 15 percent under-measured!
Social researcher , March 21–23: Fidesz: 52 percent, united opposition: 41 percent - Fidesz is only within the margin of error, 2 percent below the standard!
Republicon , March 16-18: Fidesz: 49 percent, united opposition: 46 percent - Fidesz was measured 5 percent below, and the opposition "only 12 percent above".
And so on - maybe that's enough, that's enough convincing.
At the time, Telex formulated its wishful thinking like this - of course, as if it were the pin-point reality:
"The stakes of the elections are high for the electorate, the support of the political parties shows a close situation - it is clear from the latest public opinion survey of the Republikon Institute, the last one before the election. According to the results, there is a margin of error of 2 percentage points between Fidesz-KDNP and Unity for Hungary, 35 percent of voters support the government, while 33 percent support the opposition.
– writes Marianna Tóth-Bíró on Telex on March 30, 2022. He then continues:
"The research is not only important because of the current numbers of the two great candidates, but also because, before the elections, the Republikon Institute examined, in addition to party preference, the attitudes of Hungarian voters regarding emigration, i.e. how many people thought about emigrating and for what reasons. This is how it turned out that 23 percent of Hungarians have already thought about moving abroad for some reason. Among those of active age, this rate is significantly higher: every third worker of working age (33 percent) has already considered leaving the country."
There really is nothing new under the sun. Everyone is fleeing, and the opposition is head to head with the ruling parties. In fact:
"The primary reasons for this tendency to emigrate were also examined: the most prominent of these is that wages in Hungary are so low that it is impossible to make a living, this opinion is shared by almost four tenths of the respondents (39 percent). However, a reason of similar importance to the ability to make a living is that in the last 12 years, Viktor Orbán has completely destroyed democracy in the country, so it is not worth living here, 32 percent of the voters agreed with this statement. [...] As a result, the research also asked how the intention to emigrate is related to the result of Sunday's election. The answers are shocking: 27 percent of voters believe that if Viktor Orbán remains in power after the elections, it is not worth staying in this country."
This was all "measured" by Republicon a week before the elections, then Fidesz received 54.1 percent and the opposition 34.4 percent. And no one left...
Likewise, a week before the elections, 24.hu ranted like this: "Závecz: a few percent is the difference between Fidesz and the opposition, 8 percent of active undecideds can decide."
And that's just the title! The sequel is coming:
"In the week starting on March 21, 39 percent of the voting-age population supported the list of the governing parties, and 36 percent of the six-party opposition alliance, so their competition is close. In this round, Mi Hazánk achieved 3 percent, the Kétfarkú Kutya Párt 2 percent, according to the ZRI Závecz Research survey, which is the last one before the April 3 parliamentary elections.
The proportion of independents was 19 percent. Last week, Fidesz-KDNP stood at 50 percent, the opposition at 46 percent, Mi Hazánk at 3 percent, and the Kétfarkú Kutya Párt at 1 percent among those who promised to participate and could also choose from the lists. […] 8 percent of the voting-age population – more than 600,000 voters – indicated that they would definitely or probably vote, but did not yet have a preferred party alliance. It is significant that they consider the country's situation to be bad (62 percent) rather than good (18 percent). Based on this, it seems that the opposition's chances are much better in this round."
Yes, my dear babies. Then our uncle named Reality appeared and tapped your stupid heads with his stick...
And of course, then Márki-Zay came and announced on October 17, 2021, roughly half a year before the elections - according to the triumphant report of Telex:
"Péter Márki-Zay: We will replace the Orbáns with two-thirds".
How familiar, isn't it! Then Petike continued:
"The coalition of the clean is behind me [...] The relief army must arrive on time, like at Nándorfehérvár, and not like at Mohács," said Márki-Zay. According to him, however, the primary election was not won by the parties, as "we also changed the opposition": they replaced the undecided, the extremists, and those who play with power. Despite this, "our backs must be secured even now", as cases of corruption may occur in this coalition as well. This is the revolution of the little ones, said the candidate for Prime Minister, and emphasized again that the primary election was decided in his favor by the young people. "The average age, as I look around, does not reach 40 years. Viktor Orbán should be afraid of you, not me. Talk to the mothers from Fidesz, the grandmothers from Fidesz!"
In fact, you should have fun with the Fidesz innkeepers as well...
And Maki made noise about this too:
"»We don't just want to change a party, we don't just want to replace Viktor Orbán. We want a new culture where love will be the ruler, because hate can only be fought with love.« Jews, gypsies, gays, ethnic people, urbanites, right- and left-wingers, and Fideszists would be embraced with love by Márki-Zay, who in the past he wants to end thirty years with peace. "In order to do this, it was not only necessary to win this battle, but also the war." He recalled the "Vásárhely model" of 2018, when the parties united with the help of civilians to defeat Fidesz with a father of seven children, whom the Fidesz party could not find a grip on.
»Until now, the level of division that we are witnessing has not been important to Fidesz. Now they are handing out because they are afraid, because Fidesz is preparing to fall," said the Prime Minister candidate. According to him, this is why the government majority now wants to cement the chief prosecutor and the president of the Media Council, because »they are afraid of the new Hungary, of accountability. Joining Fidesz today is like joining the Labor Guard in '89,' said the winner of the primary election, who separately greeted the Partizán staff, Zsolt Osváth, and Róbert Puzsér, who was standing next to him. "We will replace the Orbáns with two-thirds," Péter Márki-Zay said goodbye to his audience.
Isn't he exactly the same as the other idiot today?
They are simply incapable of inventing anything new. But at least they can be sure that their pollsters will "measure" their future two-thirds and three-thirds well.
And our uncle Valóság lights a cigar with a smile and puffs cheerfully.
Featured image: Demokrata/Tibor Vermes
