Civil Academy: The impact of Trump's victory on the world (with video)

Organized by the Civil Solidarity Forum, the Civil Solidarity Public Foundation and the Community of Spiritual Patriots, "You can see Mars!" The guest of the newest Civil Academy, entitled "with the title" on Monday, is American expert Tamás Magyarics, hosted by Dániel Ferkó.

The primary topic of the event held at the Citizens' House is the United States, where the presidential election took place a few weeks ago. As you know, the preliminary polls showed a Democratic advantage, but Donald Trump, the Republican candidate who will take office on January 20, won with an incredible margin. Until then, however, Joe Biden seems to be doing his best to detonate III. world war.

Donald Trump's inauguration is preceded by high expectations, one of which is to bring religion back into schools. About what this could mean, America expert Tamás Magyarics said at the beginning of the conversation: Trump will have a difficult time in this matter.

Tamás Magyarics was a guest of the Civil Academy

“Trump wants to eliminate the Department of Education. Because in the opinion of the Republicans, education is a member state competence, not a federal one, and if he enforces this, he will not be able to implement mandatory prayer, a minute of silence or any religious-related provision in schools, since the individual member states will determine what rules will be enforced. In the case of Republican-led states, this could happen. 27 of the 50 states are governed by Republican governors. However, if Trump, true to his promise, eliminates the Department of Education, he will not have the means to introduce mandatory prayer throughout the state," the analyst pointed out.

The presenter reminded that before the elections, the media painted Trump's portrait in very negative colors, but this had no effect.

According to Magyarics, the credibility of the big traditional media has been significantly discredited, CNN's news program is only watched by a few hundred thousand people, they don't watch it because they find it incredibly one-sided. CBS, which used to be a benchmark, has also fallen. "Traditional media's credibility has fallen. Only 30 percent of New York Times readers consider the paper credible. Before the election, there were three big blocs: one, that Kamala Harris is the most beautiful and smartest candidate, the second, that Trump is a mortal threat to democracy, and the third is transgender and LGBTQ issues. CBS News was 94 percent positive about Harris and 7 percent about Trump. This also shows the bias," Magyarics listed.

The analyst reminded that at the same time the economy and living standards were the most important topics for citizens, the second was immigration and illegal migration.

"To a certain extent, the election was decided by the fact that about half of Latinos voted for Trump, and he significantly improved his opinion among 19-39-year-olds as well. The only voter group where Harris could improve compared to 2020 is white women. However, this was not enough to win. However, the role of traditional media is limited today, the majority of people do not get their information from here, but from online portals and social media. Therefore, what the New York Times writes reaches a rather limited number of people," said Magyarics, who also recalled that some of the journalists of the large traditional newspapers reacted violently to Trump's victory, some even waved to emigrate.

The expert also talked about how much Hollywood campaigned against Trump. This can be explained by the fact that among the Democrats' biggest donors are studio heads and producers, so it is conceivable that the actors did not go against the political stance of their potential employers in their own well-perceived interests.

The presenter recalled the weekend reopening of Notre-Dame, which was attended by Donald Trump, who met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky here.

The other day, Zelenskyi talked about ceding some of Ukraine's territories to the Russians. Analysts conclude from this that Zelensky already "knows something", he knows what to expect from Trump. In this regard, Tamás Magyarics reminded: Joe Biden was not present at the inauguration of Notre-Dame, who had important business in Angola.

"Hopefully, there will really be a change in the matter of the Russian-Ukrainian war. A significant number of Republicans have not even voted for large financial aid to Ukraine. Among them was the designated foreign minister Marco Rubio, saying that the United States had taken on too many obligations in the world, and that the really important region for the Americans was China, not Ukraine. The Americans have skillfully surrounded China with their military allies, China stands alone in a ring. The ability of the Americans to project force is unique, China does not have it. China may still be strong in its own neighborhood, but it has no alliance system on the international stage. In terms of tax and customs policy, China has a central role in the eyes of the Americans, and Trump wants to "pass" Ukraine to the Europeans. Just as America wants the Europeans to increase their defense budgets.

Speaking to NBC over the weekend, Trump said that he would leave NATO to its fate if the Europeans did not reach deeper into their pockets, since the Europeans are rich enough to finance their own security. From this point of view, Hungary is in a good position, but this is not the case with several EU states. The Europeans are extremely behind, and this primarily applies to the Germans," Magyarics pointed out.

The expert emphasized: America will transfer Ukraine's case to Europe. "Trump is going to tell the Ukrainians that they will not get any more weapons. Or, conversely, heavily arming Kiev but limiting its use of weapons while warning Moscow that it will allow the Ukrainians full-scale weaponry if Russia does not cooperate. These are the possibilities”.

According to Magyarics, more can be inferred about Trump's intentions regarding Ukraine from the words of his vice president, JD Vance.

"He believes that, if appropriate, the front line could be frozen in its current state, on both sides of which areas with a special status could be created and strong security guarantees could be given to Ukraine. In some ways, this is the Achilles heel of the whole issue, as the Russians are not known for keeping their promises. On the other hand, everyone completely ruled out Ukraine becoming a NATO member," stated the expert, who also pointed out that the high level of corruption in Ukraine is also a problem.

"The Russians look at the world based on the balance of power, they don't like the fact that NATO might appear near Moscow. Many Russian red lines have been crossed by NATO, Moscow sees that there are already NATO soldiers just a few hundred kilometers away, and this is unacceptable from a security point of view, which is why Russia insists that Ukraine does not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It was said to be the alpha and omega of the talks in Istanbul, where a deal was almost reached, then Boris Johnson stepped in and encouraged the Ukrainians not to accept the deal. For the Ukrainians, however, only NATO membership is acceptable. These are the basic positions, a solution should be found for this," Magyarics outlined the situation.

According to the expert, the Americans are in a very good position in terms of military power and in the invisible part of the American power iceberg: NGOs and soft power. "Everyone watches American football and baseball, not much is known about Chinese sports. Everyone listens to American entertainment music, not Chinese pop. The United States is therefore in a good position in terms of soft power. Among the ten largest banks, only one or two are Chinese, the rest are American. The Chinese are already starting to catch up in terms of patents. But as long as America can maintain its cultural-social appeal, it will be stronger. Of course, after a while, the already existing economic change can turn into a political-military change," said Magyarics, who also reminded the Russians that hundreds of thousands of Chinese already live in Siberia.

Changes are also expected in the relationship between America and Hungary with Trump taking office. We all know how reigning ambassador David Pressman treated our country. It is hoped that an ambassador will arrive who respects our country and treats Hungary with dignity.

"The Treaty of Vienna expressly prohibits an ambassador from interfering in the internal affairs of the host country. But you should know that the ambassador is not an independent person, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs instructs him how and what to do. Even the parents of Anthony Blinken, the current US foreign minister, made critical statements about Fidesz decades ago. The Blinken family is therefore prejudiced against our country, and moreover, it is a family that is a generous donor to CEU. This also shows what kind of family it is. Pressman is a bit like the nerdy student, he wants to overachieve. Ethically, diplomatically, and in terms of protocol, he exceeded all limits. At the same time, a sovereign country cannot afford to be read publicly, it is forced to react, so the bilateral relations went into a spiral".

According to the expert, "With Trump's appearance on the scene, we can trust a "David Cornstein2" who, if he has a problem, resolves it in private. Economically, Trump's presidency will definitely not be a triumphal march, and the reason for this will be that we are EU members. If Trump introduces tariffs on European countries, it will affect us too. It is also not certain that he will take kindly to the fact that the Chinese are the second largest investors in Hungary," Magyarics pointed out.

According to the American expert, Trump will bring back the prohibition of double taxation, and the atmosphere of bilateral relations will be different.

Tamás Magyarics said: several presidents have already tried to drain the swamp in Washington, but without success. Interest groups, the media and the bureaucracy have incredible influence. Trump promised to replace not only his leadership, but also those belonging to the deep state at deeper, lower levels. 

"We will see how well he succeeds, since it is about 2.3 million people. The military-industrial complex also belongs to the background power, and you cannot politicize military suppliers. Ukraine is a good market from this point of view, as it is suitable for testing the new American weapons there, and also because 90 percent of the sums given to Ukraine are returned to these arms manufacturers. It is questionable how Trump can prevail against these arms manufacturers, since he also received significant support from them. Elon Musk would cut the federal budget by 30 percent. That's the same statement as Trump making peace in 24 hours. Ministries should be abolished, social security should be affected - and this will not work," Magyarics pointed out the difficulties.

According to the expert, certain interest groups tend to pull here, others rather there. The majority is with the Democrats, but the Republicans also know that these structures cannot be abolished. In addition, the Republican Party also has a strong internationalist wing, they believe that in order for the USA to maintain its current position vis-à-vis China, a system is also needed, the iceberg that is not visible. This is the deep state. The iceberg can be drilled, but not removed. At the moment, this iceberg, the deep state, has the power. It is an overstatement to say that America is in fatal decline, but it is clear that the USA will not always be on top, nor will the American empire last forever. The big question is how the country's division affects the USA's activities abroad," Magyarics pointed out.

The expert mentioned that Trump would withdraw from the WHO and the Paris climate agreement, saying that they do not serve America's interests.