In Europe, elections can be decided by migration, so the parties cannot ignore the issue.
- Strengthening the international legitimacy of the newly established Syrian government can be a trump card for the EU member states at the negotiating tables regarding migration. I see an opportunity in this, I hope that the EU and its member states will take advantage of it - said Viktor Marsai, director of the Migration Research Institute, about the migration aspects of the Syrian situation.
"No masses have left Syria for Europe, including Hungary, according to our estimates, they will not for the time being. The EU member states expect that the situation in Syria will settle down, several countries have suspended the assessment of Syrian asylum applications. They also trust that Syria will become a safe third country and that they will be able to send people back," Viktor Marsai, director of the Migration Research Institute and lecturer at the National Public Service University (NKE), told Magyar Nemzet.
As is known, the Syrian rebels overthrew the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in barely two weeks. The former leader left the country a few days ago, ending the 54-year rule of the Assad family. One of the most important antecedents of the 2015 migration crisis was the Syrian civil war, which erupted during the Arab Spring in 2011, when the Syrian population took to the streets against Bashar al-Assad's regime, demanding democratic reforms and freedom.
The government's actions quickly turned into a civil war, and the conflict was made extremely complex by the participation of various opposition forces, jihadist groups and Kurdish militias, as well as proxy wars by external powers, including Russia, Iran, the United States and Turkey. During the conflict, more than half a million people lost their lives and more than 13 million became refugees, most of them fled to the member states of the European Union and Turkey.
Viktor Marsai said: European countries are one by one stopping the assessment of Syrian citizens' asylum applications,
saying that with the fall of the Assad regime, the reason for fleeing may disappear. He added that the largest Syrian community in the European Union, with more than one million people, lives in Germany. After the fall of Assad, the German government decided not to process new asylum applications,
however, no decision has yet been made on the fate of the Syrian refugees in Germany.
The expert also cited Austria as an example, where the Minister of the Interior stated that they would withdraw the asylum applications of Syrian refugees who have been in the country for less than five years. More than 100,000 Syrian refugees live in Austria, 40,000 of whom may lose their refugee status.
"The newly formed Syrian government will have a very important objective to strengthen its international legitimacy. This can be a strong trump card for the EU member states at the negotiating table in the future."
I see an opportunity in this, I hope that the EU and its member states will take advantage of it, because we can experience unprecedented social tensions and political tectonic movements in the Union due to migration, he added.
As an example, the expert cited the rise of far-right parties and the fact that Finland suspended the payment of development aid to Somalia because the country did not accept back its citizens expelled by Finland.
The NKE instructor informed me: most public opinion polls show that
the topic of migration and immigration, integration is among the three most important topics in Europe, it decides elections, so the parties cannot ignore the issue.
Viktor Marsai also said that the Syrians who fled to Turkey do not leave for Western Europe, as they are mostly satisfied with the conditions there. However, Turkish society is fed up with Syrians.
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's political goal is to send the 3.5 million Syrian refugees living in the country home. The Turkish state was also behind the recent successes of the insurgents, this is no accident. Erdogan cannot let more people in, he explained. The director explained: many of the citizens who left Syria were enemies of the regime and did not go home for fear of reprisals. Others have not renewed their identity cards in recent years, thereby losing their homes, land, and other assets. These were distributed to people loyal to the Assad regime. New opportunities are now opening up for them to recover these, but all this will not be without tensions, according to the expert.
Cover image: Syrian refugees arriving from Turkey at Hanover International Airport in northern Germany
Source: MTI/EPA/Holger Hollemann
