If the votes were held now, it would lead to a three-party parliament.
According to the Nézőpont Institute's most likely list election result estimate, Fidesz would get 47 percent of the list votes and Tisza 37 percent "this Sunday", which would lead to a three-party parliament, according to modeling with the new constituencies. The repeated victory of Fidesz would not be in question either: the governing parties would again receive 61 percent of all mandates.
The Nézőpont Institute informed MTI on Monday that, based on their survey - which was conducted by interviewing a thousand people by telephone between December 9 and 11 -,
in December, 38 percent (2.9 million people) of the entire adult population eligible to vote (about 7.67 million people) sympathized with Fidesz, and 25 percent with the Tisza Party (1.9 million people), which is the same as the data measured in the previous month.
Active voters who have promised to participate make up 73 percent of those eligible to vote (5.6 million people), which corresponds to the participation trends experienced in the parliamentary elections of recent years, they added.
They explained that the Nézőpont Institute examines the party preference identified with statistical methods among the declared and the undecided and those who are hiding on the base of active voters, and from this the estimate of the "most likely list result" is formed.
From the announcements of other institutes, only the declared party preference can be read, so they renounce the group of active voters who do not declare their party preference, which can be put up to 15-20 percent in the research, they wrote.
According to a December survey by the Nézőpont Institute, the most likely list result for the Fidesz-KDNP would be 47 (2.6 million voters), the Tisza Party 37 (2.1 million voters), while the DK list would have 5 percent "in an election this Sunday."
All other parties would remain below the 5 percent threshold, including Mi Hazánk (4 percent), which seems to be the loser of the month, and the Two-Tailed Dog Party (3 percent), they added.
Based on the research, it can be said that polarization has continued to grow since November, with Fidesz (+1 percentage point) and Tisza (+3 percentage points) also benefiting.
However, the difference between the two political parties is still significant, at 10 percentage points.
"Since Péter Magyar avoids all by-elections, despite the data, he can maintain the myth of his victory among his supporters"
they said.
They went on to say that the overall picture also includes the fact that the percentages of the "most likely list result" are not the same as the distribution of parliamentary mandates, since individual constituencies play a key role in the Hungarian electoral system.
The Nézőpont Institute therefore modeled how the distribution of mandates would develop "this Sunday" after a hypothetical parliamentary election, taking into account electoral history trends at the polling district level and the new electoral district boundaries.
Based on the mandate estimate, Fidesz would win 74 individual constituencies and a total of 121 representative seats (61 percent of all mandates). The Tisza Party could win the remaining 32 individual constituencies in all the constituencies of Budapest, half of the constituencies of Pest County and several county seats, by conquering a total of 71 mandates (36 percent of all mandates). In addition, the DK could gain 6 mandates, while the German nationality could gain 1 more, they listed.
They noted that the next 16 months could bring many twists and turns and that every election result estimate works with several variables, however, based on the above data, it can be stated that in an election held this Sunday, Fidesz's victory would be certain.
MTI
Cover photo: A woman dressed in national costume casts her vote in the voting circle set up in the Glatz Oszkár Mûvelõdési Központ and Library in Buják in the national assembly election and child protection referendum on April 3, 2022.
MTI/Péter Komka
