What can be considered an objective measure? To what extent did the lack of flu epidemic slow down the numbers? Instead of endless comparisons, we present the real situation with experts!

The number of deaths in Hungary has skyrocketed in recent days: there were constant reports of 200-300 deaths per day, and at its peak, a Hungarian coronavirus patient died every five minutes. In such a situation, it is natural to try to estimate the losses, the demand for data is enormous, from which contradictory conclusions can be reached.

The Population Research Institute, a background institute of the Central Statistical Office, recently published a short study that painted a much darker picture of deaths in Hungary than the official numbers. According to this, last year we may have lost 14,700 compatriots as a result of the covid epidemic, which is significantly more than the official statistical data: according to the KSH, 9,884 people officially died in the coronavirus epidemic. Due to the glaring difference, some press products accused the KSH of cosmeticizing the data.

The quick statistics also include those infected with covid who, for example, die of heart disease or are hit by a car.

In addition, international comparisons regularly appear in the press, where the numbers from the Hungarian daily reports are inserted next to the death data of each country, instead of the KSH data, in a ranking based on Eurostat figures. However, in these creative calculations, apples are often compared to pears.

Fast and inaccurate or slower and more accurate?

First of all, it is important to clarify that the death numbers reported daily by Chief Medical Officer Cecília Müller are not KSH data, but quick statistical numbers that show the rate of spread and thus help decision-making, but may often differ from the number of people who actually died as a result of covid infection. It does not matter whether the virus infection actually caused the person's death, or whether it was merely an accompanying illness.

In the future, it will be the responsibility of the KSH to separate the deaths from each other, says Áron Kincses, the deputy president of the KSH's specialized statistics directorate. - The quick statistics also include those infected with covid who, for example, die of heart disease or are hit by a car.

Data providers do not intentionally confuse us; just as health systems and statistical offices were unprepared for the devastating pandemic.

The demand for domestic and internationally comparable data has increased significantly, while the providers of data - for example doctors - understandably do not focus on this

- points out Marcell Kovács, head of the Census and Population Statistics Department of the KSH.

In addition, as he says, the protocol is not uniform either: the practice of determining daily covid deaths differs in individual countries. Áron Kincses adds that, according to his intuition, the National Center for Public Health (NNK) "declares everyone in a transparent and conscientious manner", but it is not certain that all countries follow the same practice. Incidentally, the World Health Organization (WHO)'s COVID-19 Health System Response Monitor (HSRM) is also clear about this: it is important to distinguish the daily data provided by government agencies from that of statistical offices, which rely on more comprehensive death records, but their processing takes longer. In English, one data is fast and inaccurate, the other is slower and more accurate.

After each death, a small investigation begins

What is certain: the excess deaths in 2020 compared to the average of the previous five years (2014–2019) are 8,331, and compared to 2019, they are 11,297. Compared to 2019 and 2020, the situation in terms of excess mortality is worse in fifteen countries.

These are exact numbers that stand the test of international comparisons, because the WHO developed a precise set of rules quite quickly, last spring, regarding the criteria on which someone should be declared infected with covid. For example, if the deceased also suffered from cancer or pneumonia, which should be considered the main cause of death. The statistical offices of each country will publish the cause of death data based on this uniform methodology, and when the KSH publishes them, like the other statistical offices, they will be comparable, says Áron Kincses. According to our information, the statistics will be published in the spring.

The full article HERE .

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