It's a cliché, but that's why it's true that you need to win an election in 2022, not a poll.
Viewed from the right, the situation tempts you to stay at home because, according to the measurements of not just one or two, but all six authoritative pollsters in February, the governing parties are, to a greater or lesser extent, ahead of the coalition of the united opposition, known in its maiden name as the
A political alliance started under the name of Unity for Hungary, which cannot even start as a party because they "didn't have time" to found a party (...), not to mention that in this case, according to the current house rules, they would not have been able to form separate parliamentary factions in their own name starting parties…
Source: kozvelemenykutatot.hu
Returning to the numbers, as can be seen in the graph above, the values measured in February among active voters were as follows: Median: 49-43, Republikon: 48-46, Viewpoint: 50-43, Idea: 49-44, Závecz: 49 -46, Real PR: 54-41 (!) percent pro-government advantage was measured.
It is interesting that in 2018 the measurements of Median and Závecz were the most accurate, of course, it is not certain that this will be the case this year as well.
It might also be interesting that
if we average the February numbers of all six research institutes, we get a value of 49.8 - 43.8.
That is, the average advantage of the governing parties is 6 percent among active voters. This is partly far beyond the margin of error, and partly does not include the approx. The votes of 1,200,000 Hungarians living or working across the border who have (also) acquired Hungarian citizenship. There is a lot of debate about the latter.
The Ballib press hopes that the vast majority of voters settled in the "west" will vote for the Moslék coalition. Yes, but the Transylvanian, Upland, etc. On the other hand, the vast majority of "new" Hungarian citizens will vote for the government parties, and in total they will be about five times more than those who settled in the West (estimated proportions are about 4-500 thousand, compared to about 80 thousand voters).
If I had to answer the question posed in the title, I think that the fronts have been stiffened for a long time.
Not only since 2018, but since 2014 as well. I feel that the more time passes since the first two-thirds victory, the more. Which is, of course, partly sad, because everyone can experience for themselves that we prefer to avoid the discourse about politics in groups of friends, so as not to offend those on the "other side". Or what's worse: we don't even look for each other anymore, because we'd rather prevent the exchange of ideas about political topics that deeply permeate everyday life.
Everyone feels and knows that denying or consciously forgetting our hateful or perceived acquaintances, and the separation of already established camps from each other, only harms the unity of the nation. We know it, we feel it, but frankly, we can't do anything about it. Don't get me wrong: this is true for both camps.
Because both camps feel that the truth is on their side. Anyone who is used to M1 or HírTV (usually) would not imagine switching to ATV or RTL news. And vice versa.
But there is another aspect here. Those on the "left" can't do anything about it, but it still exists. It's called protecting our ego. Every sentence we say serves to protect our ego. Every single argument we have with each other is also based on this. (Including arguments with our friends and spouses!) This is why all those who, in the days before the multi-party system, consistently and consistently voted for the MSZMP and then the MSZP - with few exceptions - will not vote for "Orbán" now either.
Not because it would deeply hurt their own EGO, which they will protect "at the cost of their lives".
They would feel like "dirty people", they would have to admit that they were wrong until now, that they let themselves be led by the nose. No, to protect their egos, they will never admit it. They prefer to stay where they were until then, and then choose ANY party of the dubious alliance, just to somewhat protect their peace of mind.
For this, of course, they receive help and support every single day from the "progressive" press, which claims to be infallible, the custodian of the only truth.
And that is why they are not interested in any arguments, facts, sources that could shake their faith.
The MZP's daily nonsense is aimed at them, they are terribly happy that they are not among the "faithful sheep" and that they understand each other perfectly with like-minded people.
The vast majority of them are regrettable, hopeless cases. There is no other solution: there is no need to deal with them, arguing is a pointless waste of time and energy.
They have to be beaten again and again, no matter what the pollsters say.
Featured image: YouTube
