According to a well-constructed communication strategy, Ukrainians cannot commit crimes and win even if they don't. Well, that's how he goes about attacking a country behind which the entire Western information machine is lined up, led by America, which has nothing too expensive when it comes to maintaining its global power.

Mariupol, located on the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov, has a population of half a million people and has been under siege for more than half a century. It is the tenth largest city in Ukraine, which was called Zhdanov between 1948 and 1989. While the other cities were bypassed or surrounded by the Russian troops, they immediately began to besiege the port city.

"It's not by chance, since Mariupol is located in an extremely important location from a strategic point of view."

Gaining control over the city is essential to establishing a land link between Donbass and Crimea. That is why it has been occupied for the past eight years. More specifically, it was clear that any open Russian intervention in the Donbass would affect Mariupol, which as a port is also the key to the Sea of ​​Azov and, moreover, plays a significant role in the processing of Ukrainian grain exports.

"Mariupol is also a center of heavy industry, a stronghold of steel production."

Here is the Ilyich Iron and Steel Plant, Azovmas, and one of Europe's largest steel plants, Azovstal, owned by the oligarch Rinat Akhmetov. The battles for the city thus also affect the global steel market. China and India, the world's two largest steel producers, can make up for the lost steel volume, but Ukraine and Russia's world market share is about ten percent. This particularly affects the European Union sensitively, since 20 percent of the 150 million tons of steel used here annually is imported, 40 percent of which comes from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. In the past two years, steel prices have reached a historic high due to increased energy costs, a price war on the raw materials market for ore, coking coal and iron scrap, as well as increased transport fees due to the pandemic. The price increase is well illustrated by the fact that compared to the fall of 2021, the price of steel mesh used in the construction industry rose by 72 percent, while reinforcing steel became more expensive by 46 percent.

"The industrial city, which cannot be called beautiful, but is all the more important from an industrial and strategic point of view, now lies in ruins."

About 15,000 Ukrainians defended the city - half of the regular army and the soldiers of the Azov regiment integrated into it, but rather independent - while the besieging Russian troops numbered roughly 20,000. On the Russian side, in addition to the enlisted units, there are also soldiers from the armies of the two separatist states, as well as Chechens experienced and determined in street battles, the "Kadyrovtsi". A real city siege was taking place, with all its horrors, street battles, and continuous artillery attacks. The story is coming to an end.

"Mariupol is not only a prominent place from a strategic point of view, but also the scene and base of the formation of the Azov regiment with neo-Nazi ideology, so the city's income also has a strong symbolic significance."

Azov was founded in Mariupol in 2014 to crush the separatist "people's republics" of Donbass. Later, together with similar independent groups, they were also integrated into the staff of the interior and then the army, but their independence is guarded with fear. They are quite independent and occasionally clash even with the regular formations that intend to regulate them. Their ideology is openly neo-Nazi, and to make it clear to everyone, they proudly wear neo-Nazi symbols, and in their ranks, from extreme right-wing radicals to criminal elements, marauders, and those who came here for lack of a better way to make a living, there was quite a mixed group. However, in the last eight years, they have gained plenty of combat experience in the Donbass, and the tested fighters are also driven by nationalism accompanied by neo-Nazi overtones. Well, and they also know that the Russian units will not be gentle with them, since one of the stated goals of attacking Ukraine is de-Nazi liberation. Therefore, this is also part of understanding the background of the desperate struggle. Just as it is also part of the story that they are being washed away at full steam through the media. Sometimes the government and its followers claim that they are heroes and not neo-Nazis, this is just Russian propaganda, and sometimes they secretly hope that the hardest part of them will not even survive this war.

"The battle for Mariupol is coming to an end. One or two thousand warriors are still bleeding, without supplies. The capture of the city would be the first really great Russian victory, while the Ukrainians, for lack of a better word, are building the epic."

The capture of Mariupol is important for Russia not only from a strategic and psychological point of view, but also because at least 10,000 soldiers will be released here, and all reinforcements are greatly needed in the upcoming great battle in the Donbass. With the force released here, the attack towards Izjum can also be launched from the south. Ukraine's chances in this relatively open terrain are not very good. It is also an important aspect that Ukrainian losses in terms of manpower can be very, very high. In the case of Mariupol, a brigade of Ukrainian soldiers is permanently out of the fighting, as well as a large number of tanks and other equipment.

"Therefore, it is not surprising if the Ukrainians try to counterbalance the tragic situation in the information space this time as well. More precisely, to get what you can out of defeat."

It is not known how long the defenders will last, but we can already state that they resisted far beyond expectations. Azov is difficult to particularly love, but its persistence must be acknowledged. They will hold out until the end in the underground tunnel system of Azov built by Stalin, several kilometers long, but the bombs of the Tu-22s and the grenades of the Chechens will have their effect sooner or later. The otherwise tough Ukrainian marines are the first to give up the hopeless fight. According to Russian sources, around 1,300 have already surrendered, and the Ukrainian side denies this.

"And anyway, as we can see, there is no situation in this war that communicators wouldn't get something out of."

Of course, the winner is in a simpler situation, so in the case of Mariupol, the situation speaks for itself. Russia should rather refute the Ukrainian accusations, and Moscow apparently does not care much about this. An exception to this is perhaps the attempts to communicate the crimes committed by Azov against civilians. At the same time, Ukraine is also trying to turn a clear defeat into a victory in the information space.

So, for example, he kept saying that there are tens of thousands of dead in Mariupol, and then he went on a train around the humanitarian corridors, in which the message that Azov uses the civilian population as human shields did not get through, to put it mildly. Then came the story of the residents "dragged" to Russia, meanwhile the information trick about the destruction of the native home and the theater, and finally, in the end game, the Ukrainian team works to shape the defenders' stand into a heroic story. By the way, Volodymyr Zelenskiy is proposing to exchange the imprisoned opposition politician, Viktor Medvedchuk, for the prisoners, and Kiev persistently denies that anyone has surrendered. Of course, this is exactly what Russia is trying to emphasize. At the same time, the president threatens to interrupt the peace negotiations if the defenders are not released by the Russian troops.

"And so that nothing interferes with the production of myths, Kiev does not allow the defenders, who are surrounded without food and ammunition, to surrender."

However, the country's leaders know very well that the situation of those trapped in Mariupol is hopeless. That's why they don't want to hear the defenders' cries for help for two weeks now. Specifically, they don't answer the phone. Instead, the world is bombarded with the heroism of the defenders. Surrendering, however, would spoil the image of heroism. Therefore, Kyiv would rather sacrifice two thousand soldiers. Meanwhile, he fears the civilians, who are no longer in danger. This leadership is no different from the one that sends its soldiers into a blitzkrieg, who then, to their surprise, find themselves in a classic war. Let's face it, Zelensky, who has been promoted to a hero, is not a statesman, since he prefers to let his sons perish for a myth. I don't even dare to think about the practical cynicism of Kiev knowingly letting go of the hard core of neo-Nazi Azov, which is already a heavy burden for it. Or what can we say about the great power which, in order to maintain its global positions, sends the sons of other nations, as the case may be, the Ukrainians, to the slaughterhouse against the Russians. This is a dirty war worthy of our dirty world, in which everyone from the aggressor to the victim to the instigator is playing a diabolical game. At least as far as the political elites are concerned. Angels who fall into it against their will suffer, flee, and die. There are only losers in this war so far. Nevertheless, the mainstream now only wants to see and be seen as a loser, Russia.

"No matter how we look at it, Russia has one way left, and that is to win a military victory. You will definitely lose the information war. Or rather, he's already lost it."

Because even if the Russians take Mariupol, for example, right away, thanks to the Western mainstream media, the public opinion will still only have BUT...! And that Mariupol is the "Leningrad of Ukraine, or, if you prefer, Stalingrad". However, if they knew what happened in these two cities, they wouldn't say that! And why does this picture develop? Because according to a well-constructed communication strategy, Ukrainians cannot commit crimes, and they win even if they don't. Well, that's what happens when you attack a country behind which the entire Western information machine is lined up! At the forefront of the America that costs nothing when it comes to maintaining its global power. It's a devilish game, with many dead, and even more naive supporters who think they're standing up for a good cause, even though they're only legitimizing more killing by their actions. Because in this game they are just tools. Today, everyone still mourns the ruined Mariupol, only to forget it tomorrow, together with Bucsa, in the meat grinder of the Donbass.

Gábor Stier / Moscow Square

Gábor Stier, born in 1961, is a foreign policy journalist, analyst, publicist. He is a foreign policy journalist for the weeklies Demokrata and Magyar Hang, and the founding editor-in-chief of #moszkvater, a portal dealing with the Slavic world and the post-Soviet region. Prior to that, he was a staff member of the conservative daily newspaper Magyar Nemzet for 28 years until the paper was closed, and from 2000 to 2017 he was the head of the foreign policy section, then the paper's chief employee. The paper's last Moscow correspondent. His area of ​​interest is the post-Soviet region, as well as global processes. He regularly publishes in foreign policy magazines, and his writings and interviews appear from time to time in the Central and Eastern European press. Author of the book The Putin Mystery (2000), permanent member of the Valdaj Club since 2009. Associate Professor of Communication at the Metropolitan University. The Tolstoy Society is a member of the board of the Hungarian-Russian Cooperation Association.

Featured image: MTI/AP/Jevhen Maloletka)