By the time the leaves fall...

In the fifth month of the war, both warring parties want to improve their position at the front. The Russians have found their way back to their brutally sloppy way of slowly but surely grinding away the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainians are now trusting in Western heavy weapons, while Ukrainian President Zelensky is putting everything on the same page.

XII. Swedish King Charles, Napoleon and Hitler did not want to go east that much in their century. They also have in common that all three expected a decisive battle to bring Russia to its knees, which did not happen after the Battle of Narva (1700), Borogyno (1812), or Kiev (1941). Now the story continues somewhere anew, the Russians want to bleed the Ukrainian army in the counties of Luhansk and Donetsk in decisive battle

The Ukrainian army is now hoping for a turnaround on the front and in psychological warfare from Western heavy weapons. In the propaganda war, the long-awaited miracle weapons, Western heavy weapons, should demoralize the Russian soldiers in advance. This aspect of the war is well illustrated by the scandal that arose in connection with the French Caesar shots. The engineers of the Russian Uralvagonzavod "thanked" President Macron for the two samples that the Russian troops captured on the front and were able to study. Unsurprisingly, they came to the conclusion that French high-end technology is no match for their product.

While Ukrainian propaganda would demoralize Russian soldiers, Russian propaganda tries to keep morale up.

Several military analysts have already noticed that the Western weapons delivered to Ukraine are not the most modern, which is justified by the fact that they cannot fall into the hands of the Russians. A memorable example is the American stealth plane shot down during the Yugoslav war, which is suspected to have ended up in China.

The next stage border is the imminent occupation of the entire territory of the two breakaway republics by the Russian side, which may have been the original goal of the "special military operation". The question is whether they will stop here, because

According to Sun Tzu, "war is a nation's greatest enterprise," and once it has begun, the sacrifice must yield a meaningful result.

The more modern Western weapons handed over to the Ukrainians also shape Russia's military goals. The Idestova projectiles with a range of 60-80 kilometers can also reach targets in Russia along the border, so they should push the Ukrainians back by at least that much.

Seeing this, President Zelensky is now putting everything on the same page: While Russian President Putin says that "everything is going according to plan" and that the military operations have no time limit, the Ukrainian president has indicated the onset of winter as the deadline for ending the fighting.

The familiar phrase "By the time the leaves fall..." is a bold statement on Zelensky's part, as he must present results within the deadline set by himself. Soldiers or diplomats.

Ukraine's situation on the front is getting worse and worse, the current amount of Western aid is a few dozen weapons with enough ammunition for a week or two. Currently, only the Anglo-Saxon countries are able to deliver large quantities of weapons and ammunition.

The Ukrainians are not doing any better on the diplomatic front either. As an attacked party, they can count on the sympathy of the world, but only a quarter of the world's countries have joined the sanctions against Russia. The majority is waiting and watching the development of the front line, as well as the tolerance limit of the population of Western countries.

The ball therefore bounces in the Ukrainian and Western spheres.

With his statement, Zelenskiy put the burden of proof on himself, forcing the Western, mainly Anglo-Saxon, powers that supported him to act.

Zoltán Kiszelly / Mozgástér blog

Featured image: Seco/Copyright 2022 The Associated Press