Migration to Europe has increased significantly, especially on the Western Balkan route. Due to the food crisis predicted due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, as well as the structural – economic, political, military, environmental – changes affecting certain regions, three main global migration routes are likely to emerge: from the Latin American region to the United States and Canada, from the sub-Saharan parts of Africa In the near and distant future, millions will leave for Europe, as well as from the regions of the Middle East and South Asia.
Márk Vargha, the lead analyst of the Migration Research Institute, pointed out to Hungarian Nemzet that in the past months of 2022, among the routes, the Western Balkans was the most crowded, a veritable explosion in terms of the number of arrivals based on the data of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex).
There were three times as many attempts to cross the border as in the same period last year
- said the analyst, adding: the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus epidemic is having its negative effects felt in more and more countries, so in addition to the Afghan citizens who traditionally migrated on this route, there are now also those from North Africa and other Asian countries.
Márk Vargha also touched on the fact that the food crisis forecasted due to the interruption of grain shipments from Ukraine to Africa will for the time being only make its impact felt in mass relocations within the Black Continent, as penniless and starving people do not make the long journey to Europe. The 133 percent growth of the Eastern Mediterranean route is – as it has been until now – fueled by the migration of Syrians, Congolese and Nigerians. "For the time being, behind the 44 percent increase in border crossings on the Central-Mediterranean route, it is not the food problems in Africa, but rather the protracted political-economic crisis (Tunisia) or the disillusionment resulting from the failure of the coveted but lagging projects promising recovery (Egypt)" - the researcher pointed out.
With regard to global processes, Márk Vargha – quoting the rapid analysis of Klaudia Tóth, a researcher at the Migration Research Institute – pointed out that the intensity of resource risks (food, water, arable land) and natural calamities (floods, cyclones, droughts, rising average temperatures) typically it shocks countries the most, which already have a low level of resilience. These external processes then destabilize a given area to such an extent that the emergence of various conflicts both in the social and political arena becomes much more likely than elsewhere.
"The fight for resources, which are already rapidly depleting, is ultimately a vicious circle, as competition leads to further depletion of resources," said the researcher. According to Klaudia Tóth's analysis, three main migration routes will probably emerge due to the ecological collapse: from the Latin American region to the United States and Canada, from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe, and from the Middle East and South Asia, millions will also leave for Europe in the near and distant future.
Source and full article: Magyar Nemzet
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