It was as if nothing had happened on Monday night, there had been no valid agreement, no favorable decision for Hungary had been reached at the Brussels meeting. This is probably not what the mainstream press expected, since they did everything they could to ensure that the EU bureaucrats took away our rightful EU money, from the recovery fund to the payments due according to the contracts.
The headlines of the German media on Tuesday were all about how Hungary went wrong, that despite all the tactics, it has to give up 6.3 billion EU funds, that the member states unanimously stood in favor of freezing the funds, that the EU showed that it cannot be messed with any longer. Moreover, Orbán did not veto, the money can go to Ukraine, and the global minimum tax can finally be unified. In a word, there is great joy that the rule of law won, European values triumphed.
I have felt for a long time that we live and think in parallel worlds. If what the German media advertise is true, then there is definitely a big problem. After all, it is the first time in the long history of the EU that the member states collectively hold someone financially responsible and punish someone for constitutional deficiencies or who knows why. Because lack of constitutionality, corruption, rule of law deficit, if we scratch the surface a little, it occurs in all member states, and even – as we have recently experienced tangibly – in the European Parliament as well. For those who do not act at the same time, the monetary penalty mechanism can be applied at any time, as there has already been a precedent for it.
My other concern is the deliberate or accidental lack of information. Not only from the media reactions, but also from the politicians' statements, it can be seen that they do not know what the hearing that lasted into the night was about. At least as far as Hungarian aspects are concerned. They received an information or press folder, quickly flipped through the pages, listened to a few left-wing politicians' statements, and the resolution was ready. It seems that the most important events of the past few weeks, months, and years have slipped past their ears. They do not realize that Hungary is protecting the well-understood interests of the EU member states, in this case by blocking free market competition and competitiveness by blocking the global minimum tax, and further indebtedness of the Union by taking a loan from Ukraine.
Since Major Tavares, the Strasbourg left-wing choir has been performing a choral work about the trampling of European values. The conductor and the choir members change, but the song is the same. Hungary must be punished because there is a conservative government with national sentiments in power. In twelve years, they have tried many things, financial blackmail has recently entered the repertoire. We don't give money and then I fall for it. Now they have given money verbally, they have accepted the otherwise excellent recovery plan, but who knows when the 5.8 billion euros that were withheld a year and a half ago will end up in the state coffers.
This also applies to budget funds that have been frozen. When will they unfreeze and disburse the nearly six billion that were not frozen? How many more milestones will be added next to the current twenty-seven? Until we get to Brussels? Until they reshape our administrative, judicial and other democratic pillars with us in their own image? (How "successful" this would be was clearly seen, for example, with the asset declarations: it immediately became clear that the Brussels asset declaration method is not worth a penny.) Or until the Orbán government is overthrown? I know they gave guarantees. But the given word, the observance of the guarantees, is only valid between gentlemen. And there are unfortunately few gentlemen in Brussels.
A complicated deal took place in Brussels, a negotiation process involving many factors and sometimes opaque. I was interested in the money to be paid to Ukraine. In communication, since the past few weeks, Hungary has been blocking the 18 billion euros intended for Ukraine, refusing to help the country at war. He is using the veto as a blackmail tool to finally get the "rightfully withheld" money. "It is Hungary's responsibility that we cannot give money to Ukraine, which is bleeding from many wounds! We have to look for another solution," said the German finance minister. They only silenced what caused Mihály Varga to speak up, namely that Hungary does not agree to borrowing with a joint guarantee. Borrowing would quietly take the member countries in the direction of a debt union. The amount of money intended to help Ukraine was already allocated by the Hungarian government in next year's budget anyway. Without borrowing.
The German Audit Office had a similar opinion to that of the Hungarian Minister of Finance in March 2021, when it was necessary to ratify the acceptance of a joint loan in the member countries called the reconstruction fund. Because with the adoption, the national parliaments authorize the European Commission to borrow 750 billion euros from the financial markets and at the same time guarantee the debt. In addition, the ratification act gives the commission the ability to borrow far more money than is needed for the reconstruction plan. In addition to the Court of Auditors, the German Constitutional Court also opposed joint borrowing.
The heads of state and government, led by Chancellor Merkel, nevertheless agreed that the borrowed money will be repaid from the EU budget over a period of 30 years from 2027, and that each country will be responsible for repayment with its share in the EU budget. In the budget period between 2021-27, Germany's share of the financing of the EU budget is about 24 percent, which represents a significant risk for German taxpayers, the audit office warned.
God forbid, the idea of joint EU borrowing was - as always - supported most vehemently by György Soros and the head of the European Central Bank, Ms. Lagarde. Olaf Scholz, who was still finance minister at the time of the deal, also welcomed the idea, saying the decision would lead to a European fiscal union, an EU that could manage its own economy, levy its own taxes and take on its own debt. The indebtedness associated with joint borrowing would slowly turn the Europe of nations into a United States of Europe along the American model. What a community vision!
They also wanted to finance the 18 billion grant for Ukraine on this principle, let's keep going into debt! Perhaps the biggest net contributors, Scholz and Macron, were wondering how much of a burden this would be for their country. Yet it was not them, but Hungary that prevented the new joint borrowing, and behold a miracle, they finally managed to find a structure and source from which they can give to the insolvent Ukraine.
I don't know whether the European heads of state and government still have to give their nod to Monday's agreement at ambassadorial level. If so, what kind of match will it be? How does Olaf Scholz vote, who was commissioned by his own red-yellow-green coalition shortly before midnight on November 10, when only the owl-type representatives were sitting in the Reichstag building, to vote on the suspension of the billions to be paid to Hungary at the EU summit. There, on the diverse left, they are very worried about the EU funds, and despite the corrective measures, they do not trust that the Hungarians will fulfill the reforms they dictated. The ammunition needed to worry about the rule of law is supplied by their Hungarian comrades.
There is a war, energy crisis, migration pressure, social tension. Europe is being weakened by stupid sanctions every day. Even in the end, it may turn out that everything is because of us, because we Hungarians, separated from common European values, go our separate ways. We don't deliver weapons, we protect our borders, we don't make energy a political issue, we try to get out of sanctions. And we even want our money.
The historian's writing was published in Magyar Hírlap.
