According to General Vad, Germany's current foreign policy is not acceptable. It is as if they have forgotten that foreign policy means diplomacy, reconciliation of interests, and conflict resolution - begins the article by historian Irén Rab, which was published in Magyar Hírlap
At the initiative of the independent German newspaper EMMA, well-known personalities sent an open letter to Chancellor Scholz back in April. They called on him to do everything possible to prevent Germany from supplying weapons to Ukraine, as this could involve it in the war and even facilitate the outbreak of the Third World War. Half a million more Germans signed the letter for the sake of momentum. As quickly as possible, a truce must be forced, they wrote, and compromises must be made that suit both sides. As usual, the pro-peace signatories received the stigmatizing distinction of Putin's friend.
If politics doesn't listen to civilians, give an expert opinion on the Russian-Ukrainian war! Therefore, a few weeks ago, EMMA asked General Vad, known for his outspokenness, to evaluate the war processes from a military point of view. Brigadier General Erich Vad is not just anyone, he was German Chancellor Angela Merkel's military policy advisor between 2006 and 2013. In 2013, at the age of fifty-six, he was unexpectedly retired - for reasons we still don't know today. He is a real soldier in sight and word, he is one of the few who has spoken publicly against arms deliveries to Ukraine from the beginning.
According to the general, a situation has now arisen on the fronts that cannot be resolved militarily. Despite all the support of the West, Ukraine cannot win this war. What is going on here is a war on both sides until total exhaustion. It is like the "blood mill of Verdun" in the First World War, which caused the death of nearly a million young French and Germans. Even then, the opposing parties were not willing to sit down to negotiate, so it became a world war, with the death of millions of people. In Ukraine - if the information is to be believed - two hundred and two hundred thousand soldiers have fallen so far on both sides. Add to this the fifty thousand civilian victims and the many millions of refugees.
According to not only General Vad, but also General Mark Milley, US Chief of Staff, and General Eberhard Zorn, Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, the only acceptable behavior in an escalated situation is for the warring parties to sit at the negotiating table. However, the negotiation as a solution to the war appears only sporadically in the German media and in the public opinion suggested by the media. The generals warn in vain that the regionally limited offensives carried out by the Ukrainians in the summer months should not be overestimated. Military experts—who know what goes on inside the intelligence services, what it looks like on the ground, and what war really means—are excluded from political discourse.
The Russian invasion must be condemned, this is obvious, as it violates international law. Ukraine must be supported, but at the same time military escalation must be prevented, the retired German general believes. Arms transfers are mere militarism without a comprehensive political and strategic concept. It is not clear what the West wants. Reconquer Donbass and Crimea? Or do they want to defeat Russia completely? Do they want to counterbalance the superiority of the Russians with weapons? Do they want to reach a willingness to negotiate by transporting weapons and tanks? Are they waiting for the willingness of the Russians or the Ukrainians? The West has no realistic final objective, no comprehensive political and strategic concept. Almost only political decisions are made on the issue of war. The politicians do not seem to think about the fact that Russia is the world's most powerful nuclear power and do not deal with the most important issue, the possible danger of nuclear war.
According to General Vad, Germany's current foreign policy is not acceptable. It's as if they forgot that foreign policy means diplomacy, reconciliation of interests, conflict resolution. Instead, they continue war rhetoric, the Green Party, which once defined itself as a pacifist, has become a war party and they also dictate to the chancellor. The green foreign minister does not care what the interests of the Germans are, she walks around Kiev in a helmet and bulletproof vest and promises and gives all support to the Ukrainians. This kind of irresponsibility, or simple incompetence, maneuvers Germany into war in the end!
In the interview, General Vad reviewed how a regional conflict escalated into an endless bloody war. At the beginning, in 2014, there was only an internal political dispute in Ukraine, a kind of civil war between local Russians and Ukrainians. In 2022, after the invasion of Russia, the conflict turned into a war between two countries, which is now being fought for the independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine. It should be noted that this is also a proxy war between the USA and Russia, and very specific geopolitical interests are at stake in the Black Sea region.
It should not be ignored, warns General Vad, that the Black Sea region is as important to the Russians and their Black Sea fleet as the Caribbean Sea or the area around Panama is to the USA. It is as important to China as the South China Sea and Taiwan. It is just as important as Turkey's protection zone, which was created against the Kurds in violation of international law. In light of this and for strategic reasons, the Russians must also be understood. If massive Western intervention forced them to withdraw from the Black Sea region, they would certainly resort to nuclear weapons. The general considers the idea that the Russians would never take this step to be naive.
If the war continues, it is not good for anyone. It will mean hundreds of thousands more dead and the further destruction of Ukraine. Such an aggressive war must not be allowed to continue in the European region! The Russians must be told: so far and no more! The key to solving the conflict is not in Kiev, Berlin, Brussels or Paris, but in Washington and Moscow. It is ridiculous to say that Ukraine should decide this.
The people living in the region, i.e. Donbass and Crimea, should be asked who they want to belong to. It must be taken into account that in a Crimean referendum, the population would certainly decide in favor of Russia. The territorial integrity of Ukraine must be restored, with certain Western guarantees. And the Russians also need a security guarantee. That Ukraine will never become a member of NATO. Since the Bucharest summit in 2008, it has been clear that this is a red line for the Russians.
Military support for Ukraine must be distributed in such a way that we do not slip into a third world war. In 1914, Europe went to war with great enthusiasm, but nobody thought afterwards that it was the right decision, warns the German general. If we want an independent Ukraine, we must also ask the question of what the new European order, including Russia, should look like. Because Russia will not simply disappear from the map. We must avoid driving the Russians into the arms of the Chinese, thereby shifting the multipolar world order to the disadvantage of Germany and Europe. We also need Russia as the leading power of a multinational state to avoid the outbreak of new fights and wars. It is necessary to think about whether Ukraine has a place in the EU at all. Because in Ukraine, as in Russia, there is a lot of corruption and the rule of the oligarchs. What we - rightly - condemn in Turkey with regard to the rule of law, is at least as big a problem in Ukraine.
Brigadier General Erich Vad believes that if we don't think about all of this and don't do it, then one morning we will find ourselves in the middle of World War III.
This is not the official German position here, just the situation analysis of a military expert. The only question is whether the thoughtful words of Brigadier General Erich Vad will reach the political decision-makers and whether they will notice that they are playing with fire. With a fire that can engulf our entire world in flames.
