The support of Fidesz-KDNP is unchanged even one year after the elections (51 percent), but last year's left-wing alliance could have 10 percentage points fewer voters behind it this Sunday (26 percent). If the support ratios were changed to mandates, Fidesz would obtain a three-quarters majority, while the left-wing alliance would lose almost half of the mandates it acquired last year, according to the latest opinion poll of the Nézőpont Institute, the details of which were announced to MTI on Monday.
On the occasion of the one-year anniversary of the 2022 election, the Nézőpont Institute was curious about the results of the parties and party alliances that ran in last year's election.
It was noted that most of the parties that started then are still active in political life today, only the left-wing opposition has undergone many changes. For the sake of clarity, the left-wing parties that merged last year were asked under the name of "opposition parties presenting a joint list for the 2022 election", Nézőpont reported.
According to the survey conducted last week, in an election this Sunday, Fidesz-KDNP would obtain 51 percent of the list, which, due to the margin of error, can be considered the same as last year's record result of 52 percent. "It can be stated that despite the economic challenges caused by the war and even after the winter months burdened by the energy crisis, the government's social empowerment is strong," they said.
They went on to say that the significant reorganization on the opposition side, however, reveals a lasting mood to change the opposition.
Although the left-wing coalition suffered a "historic defeat" last year, after a year the former joint list became more unpopular by another 10 percentage points. According to Nézőpont, this means that almost a third of the voters of the former leftist alliance defected from the joint list since the serious failure.
The other opposition parties benefited from those who distanced themselves from the left-wing parties: the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom would double its previous election results in the competition of parties and party associations that started last year, and with its 12 percent support would be considered a stable parliamentary force. The Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP), which previously reached three percent, could currently appeal to eight percent of the voters. "It's no joke that even a joke party would get into the Parliament," they wrote.
A repeat of last year's election this Sunday would also result in a significant reorganization in the parliament: based on the support shifted to mandates, Fidesz-KDNP would increase its previous 135-mandate majority to 148 mandates with the existing balance of power, which would represent a new record with nearly three-quarters of the mandates (74.4 percent), he said. the Viewpoint.
The number of mandates of the left would decrease from the 57 it won last April to 30 (15 percent of the mandates), because it would also lose the constituencies of the capital where it could still win in April 2022. Out of the 106 districts in the capital, the left would have a majority in only two districts, and Fidesz would win in the remaining 16, as in the remaining 88 constituencies outside Budapest, they added.
With 12 mandates, Mi Hazánk would double the number of its members in parliament, thus making its representative group the largest opposition faction, since the current leader DK would have to share the 30 available mandates with the other left-wing parties. The MKKP would enter the parliament with 8 mandates, according to a recent survey by Nezőpont.
Source: Magyar Hírlap/MTI
Photo: Zoltán Fischer (Prime Minister's Press Office)
