In addition to the description of the military situation, there are currently two really big "bombshells" in the American secret documents that have been leaked in the past few days.

It began with five crumpled, hastily photographed documents classified as "Secret" and "Top Secret". Now the number of materials circulating is over a hundred: according to all indications, they mostly originate from the J2 reconnaissance group headquarters of the American General Staff. American reactions indicate that most of the documents are genuine - although in one case there was definitely a forgery. As a working hypothesis, we analyze the documents in such a way that the vast majority of them are original.

At first glance, the scandal appears to be good for Russia, as the case erodes trust within the Western federal system. According to a source in Kiev, however, there may be an American operation, so that the Ukrainians have something to refer to when postponing the counteroffensive, and the rest of the document, which is very unpleasant for America, is only based on credibility. According to another Ukrainian source, background negotiations are underway in the Moscow-Beijing-Washington triangle, and the leak is a sign of this. According to a Russian source, the goal is to lull Russians into a false sense of security. According to a pro-Russian source, it turns out that

"Ukraine was put on the Titanic without a ticket" and is now the first to be thrown out.

If we really want to immerse ourselves in theories, it could even have been China or Paris - because now it seems that only the French and the Chinese are not included in the package.

So it could be an operation carried out by the state, but it could also be the private act of a person with wide access. In the real world, motivation is often simple offense, revenge, world redemption - and leakers don't necessarily work for a secret service. Often the most prosaic explanation is the truth, a missed promotion, a perceived or real humiliation. If someone has access and accepts the chance of getting caught, documents of this level can be taken from almost anywhere. Of course, it is also possible that they obtained the documents electronically, then printed them out and folded them up as if they were paper-based. In this case, the method of execution/leakage would point to the Chinese rather than the Russians.

In short, everyone is guessing who is responsible. The honest answer: we don't know, but if someone took the documents out in a bag, it will quickly become clear.

In addition to the description of the military situation, there are currently two really big "bombshells". There was already information about the "almost war" in September - but after the British-Russian incident was made public on October 20, the British handled the matter very discreetly. Why not, even though articles were published, the international mainstream press didn't really get it either. Such are the "accidentals". In other words, no: London, Moscow and Washington have also put a lid on this matter.

Everyone who thinks that the western part of the "infinitely independent" global media world (the eastern part is simply controlled) is not "screwed up" or "screwed up" in some matters, think about this matter carefully.

In fact, the "almost" shooting down of the British RC-135 "Rivet Joint" reconnaissance plane on September 29, 2022 is shocking news in this form, since until the Reaper incident it was basically heard from both official and informal NATO sources that the Russians were trying to avoid provocations against allied machines. Well, that's simply not true. The Russian action could easily have led to the deaths of 21-27 British personnel. The Russians didn't stop after that either, on the next occasion they approached an RC-135 to within 30 meters and disturbed a French plane as well. The highly publicized MQ-9 reconnaissance drone incident came only after that. By the way, the Russians have achieved their goal, the Western planes continue their surveillance from a distance and with fighter escort - which means less efficiency and higher costs. So much for the fact that Russian "unprofessional" aggressiveness does not bring results.

Mandiner's full article here.

Author: Attila Demkó, security policy expert

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