A lot depends on the Poles - Zoltán Kiszelly said. The director of political analysis of Századvég told questions from Magyar Hírlap: the future of the governing PiS may have an influence on the fate of the European People's Party, but also on which party family Fidesz-KDNP will eventually join. He talked with the political scientist about next year's EP elections with the paper.

"We'll be smarter after that"

- stated the political analysis director of Századvég at the beginning of the conversation in response to the suggestion that, a year before the upcoming EP elections, movements critical of the system are on the rise across Europe.

In Italy, the Fratelli d'Italia, Giorgia Meloni's party is at the top of the popularity list, while Salvini's Lega is stable in fourth place, Spain's Vox has recovered after last year's decline, but even in its worst state, no one threatened its third place, while according to the latest surveys, the AfD is already a hair ahead of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD, making it the second force behind the CDU/CSU, while the FPÖ leads the Austrian field with a growing advantage.

"In most member states, the EP election falls in the middle of the government cycle, a kind of "interim election", and this favors the - let's call them that - Eurorealist parties, which can collect the protest votes"

Zoltán Kiszelly indicated, but at the same time warned:

"regardless of that, we have to get used to waiting for a miracle!"

As he explained, there are things that don't change. The moderate and the radical right are not able to unite at the member state level, moreover, the camp of the latter is not united at the EU level. The European People's Party (EPP) is already forming a kind of grand coalition with the left-liberal side, and according to the current situation, especially Meloni's, but PiS, which governs Poland, is also winking more towards the People's Party.

There is therefore little chance of creating a single large sovereign bloc.

The fact that the southern member states are economically vulnerable to Brussels, for example, Italy is in technical state bankruptcy and needs the central bank's breathing machine also works against the cooperation. Meanwhile, the EPP is expected to achieve a worse result than in 2019, so if it wants to keep its majority in the parliament, it may need the "Italian brothers" and the Polish conservatives.

"The fate of PiS can be decided by the Polish elections. If the opposition led by Donald Tusk wins, the Kaczyńskis may be stuck outside the People's Party. If they remain in government, the EPP is expected to turn a blind eye to the previous criticisms, just as the left-wing party family, the S&D, stopped criticizing Smer when Robert Fico was prime minister in Slovakia."  

explained the political scientist.

As for Hungary's prospects, according to Századvég's director of political analysis, Momentum and Mi Hazánk can get approximately two seats each, DK three or four, and Fidesz-KDNP the remaining dozen. He does not expect any big surprises, although he recalled that in 2009 not many people bet on Jobbik's exit.

When asked where and how the Hungarian government parties can continue in the absence of a Eurorealist unity party, Kiszelly said that this is an open question:

"Fidesz must shoot at a moving target."

A lot depends, he emphasized, on PiS, which has a completely different view of the war in Ukraine, but on all other important issues, they are on the same side regarding the rejection of illegal migration, the protection of sovereignty and Christian-conservative values.

PiS, ODS, which gave birth to the former Czech president and prime minister, and the Melonis are also members of the ECR. This is a very strong alliance, and with the accession of Hungary it could become even stronger as a "V4 plus" if it stays together. However, he is pro-war, and we are pro-peace, and this is represented in the EP by the ID faction, in addition to the fact that it is also a Eurorealist grouping. If the war were to end by next summer and the Kaczyńskis and the "Italian brothers" did not move to the EPP, then the situation would be quite clear. However, it is at least doubtful - Zoltán Kiszelly's words revealed.

Source: Magyar Hírlap

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