As always, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's speech in Tusvány painted a comprehensive picture of the world, Europe and Hungary. We are almost used to this in a good way, but we should absolutely not take it for granted that we have a prime minister who is able to deliver not only a political but also a political and social science demanding speech and an analysis in one hour even two or three times a year.
This is a great value that every Hungarian citizen can be proud of - of course, I know that neither half of the country insists on this, or rather, Viktor Orbán's every sentence irritates him. But let's not worry about them: let's be happy that the country has a prime minister for the thirteenth year now, whose speech is paid attention to, analyzed and evaluated in almost every part of the world, and of course the liberal mainstream joins in wherever it can. How many countries can say the same about themselves? With the exception of the great powers, we can hardly find such a country.
Viktor Orbán's speech once again gave a comprehensive picture of the era in which we live. What was really important to me in his one-hour evaluation, I could say, was that it was characterized by a kind of realistic view of the essence, both in assessing the situation of the world, Europe, and our country.
It was an important suggestion that the "non-West" - led by China, but including the BRICS countries and those who join them - creates its own parallel international institutions, which essentially represent a kind of alternative to traditional Western institutions. This is a very exciting question, because it really raises the not-so-beautiful possibility that the world as it is is divided into two on almost every level, that is, it will no longer be a cleavage, but actually a fission. As an example, the Prime Minister cited the Asian Bank, which already competes with Western international banks in terms of the amount of resources.
And after all this - he concluded - we are on the threshold of the greatest danger, because we are moving towards a big collision. I think it is extremely commendable on Viktor Orbán's part that he did not for a single moment want to appease his audience with some kind of ordinary political optimism or rather vain wishful thinking, but instead proved to be a realist and see the point: he clearly stated that we are now in the most dangerous moment, because the leading superpower sees - rightly - that it may be pushed from first to second place.
And Viktor Orbán is absolutely right that the USA has designated a special place for itself in the world, and this is the first place, the "gold medal", they are the masters of the world, from a military, economic and moral point of view. This conviction pervades the American spirit, one could say that the insistence on the first place, the dominant position, is the mental character trait of the United States, from which it cannot escape. But this is precisely what causes the dangerous situation, as we see it in several contexts.
His reference was important, which said that when great power conflicts arose in world history and it was about primacy, then twelve of the sixteen cases examined ended in war, and thus the basic issue of power was decided. In other words, based on Orbán's realistic view of the essence, he could not allow him not to be honest in front of the public, and he did not hide it: we have to face the fact that the third world war may break out.
On the other hand, he also proposed a realistic solution to avoid a world war, and this is nothing more than a new balance between the two – or three, if we include Russia – parties, namely that they acknowledge each other's existence, in his words, they accept that there are two days in the sky. On this basis, they do not march towards war, but try to play a win-win game, in which they strive to find forms of mutually beneficial cooperation. We can be sure of one thing - I'll add this: it is certain that China would welcome the hand of friendship extended by the USA with openness. Let's not forget that the fall of 2024 can bring big changes, and the Republican candidate - who will probably be Trump after all - can win the US presidential election, and this can radically change US world policy, because Trump really does not think about war, but about maintaining his country's economic superiority, and this is a radically different attitude.
The same realistic view of the essence characterized Orbán in his assessment of the state of the union, when he said that the union is plagued by anxiety and feels surrounded. At the same time, his own weakness and impotence are responsible for this, and the fact that he is unable to assert his own sovereignty. On the contrary: it seems more and more that it has come under the control of the United States, and has taken an amazing position regarding the war.
I would like to add that one of the latest, spectacularly sad signs of this is that the committee wants to vote for a four-year, 20 billion dollar aid to Ukraine, which foresees a permanent participation in the war - and this is anything but a wise decision, much more self-defeating. Orbán clearly explained that by separating Russia from European economic relations, the Union will lose its competitiveness in the world economy. While companies think quite differently, as only 8.5 percent of the 1,400 largest companies withdrew from Russia. That is why the Ukrainian attack on the OTP is a joke.
An unmissable topic is the struggle between federalists and sovereignists within the Union, and within that the series of attacks from Brussels against our country. Orbán took a realistic position here as well, when he made it clear that after the separation of the British, i.e. Brexit, the sovereignist V4 were left a bit alone, and he did not hide the fact that it was also because of this that the attacks against our country and Poland, disguised as the rule of law, started. Orbán also spoke openly about the fact that the Czechs have already essentially switched to the side of the liberal federalists, and Slovakia is also wavering - to this I would add that if the social democrat Fico were to come back to power in the next election, we could almost be sure that we would again be allies in the fundamental debates of the union. Orbán is optimistic that a right-wing government has come to power in Italy, maybe this will happen in Spain after Sunday's elections, and in Austria the cooperation with the Freedom Party is getting better and better, who are doing very well according to public opinion polls, they have a chance to participate in another coalition government.
In addition to all this, he is also confident in the 2024 European Parliament elections, that the sovereignist forces can advance and create a serious counterforce against the federalist mainstream by forming an alliance. However, he is realistic in that no earthquake-like breakthrough in the power relations can be expected from next year's EP elections.
His explanation of the fact that we, Hungarians, stick to our own common culture, our world view, the way we want to live, including the gender issue, war, migration and the protection of our sovereignty, was extremely important. That is why we are in a struggle with the elite of the union, which is visibly and obviously blackmailing us with both political and financial means, and wants to force us to fall in line, just like the Czechs or, for example, the Baltic states. (He cited Lithuania as an example, where they recently revoked their family protection law, which was adopted in 2012, and which the Hungarian government drew on when implementing its family protection measures.)
He explained what I think is the most important realism in the current situation: we will not compromise with the Union on the issues that define us. We don't back down and we don't give in to blackmail. In tactical and strategic matters, it can be allowed, he said, but not in matters with historical perspectives. And it is certain - I will add this - that both the gender issue, our stance towards peace in relation to the war, the protection of our borders from the influx of migrants, the protection of our sovereignty and the need for a Europe built on strong nations are matters of historical importance to us. In other words, we can talk about concessions in less important matters, but we must apply a historical approach to the essential issues.
We have to fight, that's the only solution. And the Prime Minister is absolutely right about this.
Source: Hungarian Nation
Photo: MTI/Prime Minister's Press Office/Benko Vivien Cher
