The governing Law and Justice (PiS) wins for the third time in a row or the Tusk era returns - these are roughly the two possible outcomes of today's elections in Poland, which Polish society views as the fiercest and most important political contest after the regime change.

Opposition leader Donald Tusk, former European Council president, said after October 15 "change is inevitable." Currently, any scenario is conceivable, but the change outlined by Tusk can only occur if the other opposition blocs also enter the parliament and enter into a coalition with the grouping led by the Civic Platform. The competition promises to be close, if only because PiS was only able to win the elections in 2015 and 2019 with a modest majority.

Law and Justice, which has led the government coalition for two government cycles since 2015, is in a good position awaiting Sunday's parliamentary elections. The surveys show that the majority of voters recognize the government's performance over the past eight years, including the strengthening of the armed forces, border protection measures, socio-political results, and economic development.

The Morawiecki's main challenger is the Civic Coalition (KO), whose main strength is the Civic Platform (PO) led by Donald Tusk, the prime minister between 2007 and 2014, who left European politics behind, and who is spectacularly Western. Close to them is Baloldal (Lewica) - which was created from the alliance of various small left-wing parties - and the also Western, truly mixed Third Way (TD).

The Confederation of Freedom and Independence (KWN), which is Eurosceptic but strongly pro-free market in economic matters to the right of PiS, made it clear well in advance that it would not enter into a coalition with any party alliance, but we have seen similar "surprises" before. Of course, if they were to change their position, only an alliance with the current ruling party could be considered. They are probably trying to avoid this because experience shows that the parties entering into a coalition with PiS dissolve in the long term in the People's Party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

In the campaign, both parties with a chance to win emphasized that the current election will be decisive for the future of the country. The ruling party has repeatedly said that if the opposition wins, they will sell the nation's assets and soul to Germany and the European Union. In a televised debate, Morawiecki went so far as to state that Berlin

"he will always seek an agreement with the Russians over the heads of the Central European countries."

And Kaczynski accused Tusk of weakening Warsaw's relations with the United States, Central European countries, and the Visegrád Group during his administration, because "this is what Germany and the Russians expected of him."

According to the opposition, at the same time, in the event of a repeated PiS victory, open autocracy could come in Poland, and the government will eliminate all kinds of opposition experienced so far, which prevented it from completely shaping the country in its own image. They also emphasized that if they win,

Poland will be "tolerant, diverse, European and smiling".

The accusation also appeared that the government, which presents itself as a critic of migration, is actually accepting economic migrants in an uncontrolled manner, and since 2021 more than 300,000 visas have been issued, each costing more than a thousand euros.

The opposition tried to show its strength by organizing several large-scale marches, often covered in EU flags, with banners reading such as "Europe, we apologize for PiS." Several times there was a battle of numbers about how many people took part in the movements, according to the government only a few tens of thousands on average, while the PO, on the other hand, often talked about a million people.

"It's funny when old foxes with many years of political experience organize an anti-government demonstration and try to set it up as a spontaneous civil action"

- said the Polish Prime Minister when talking about the marches.

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Featured image: Supporters of the ruling Law and Justice party at a campaign event. (Photo: Jakub Porzycki/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images