It is sinking like the Titanic, and the European Union will certainly have to replace the lost American funds in its financing.
The suffocation of the counterattack led Ukraine to a dead end. The failure dramatically increased tensions within the country, as well as between Kiev and its allies. Supporting Ukraine is also an increasing burden for the West. The vote on the new aid is dragging on in the American Congress, and the package appropriating 20 billion euros for four years has also caused controversy in the European Union. However, with the expected decrease in American subsidies, Brussels will have an increasing task in financing Ukraine. The lost American money will certainly have to be replaced by the European Union.
Ukraine had planned to reach the Sea of Azov by autumn, but in the past five months it has advanced only 17 kilometers and has been forced to fight for position. According to Ukrainian military leaders, receiving American fighter jets will not help this stalemate. The Russian grind is working more and more efficiently, since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has also lost about 200 thousand soldiers - the estimated number of dead and wounded - and if that wasn't enough,
"meanwhile, due to the widening of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict into a war, slowly the West too"
And if anyone thinks that this is the Russian narrative, then they are wrong, as the French Le Figaro and Liberation assess the situation in this way. As they note, nothing went as planned in Kiev and Brussels and Washington, and Ukraine is in for a hard winter. This is not yet a defeat, they add, but due to this development of the fronts, Kiev has to come to terms with the idea of losing territory.
"Ukraine must adopt defensive positions even if it means losing territory"
This is already expressed by Wall Street Journal Neither side will be able to break through in the near future, and so the Ukrainian troops will also have to prepare to hold the front line. In the meantime, they can take a breather and replenish their ranks, but as the American CNA military expert Dmitriy Gorenburg notes, the next phase of the war still holds a number of dangers for Ukraine. But military leaders in Kiev also admit that a positional battle, a protracted war, favors Russia, which has much larger reserves. For the time being, no one goes so far as to think that the Ukrainian army could even suddenly collapse, and the Russians are basically just waiting for that, or hoping for that.
Analysts interviewed by Bild talk about a stalemate
As Stefanie Babst, who used to work in the NATO staff, notes, the Russian strategy based on exhaustion works with the opportunities provided by air superiority, with the continuous and massive artillery and drone strikes, as well as with the fragmentation of the front. He believes that the Russians will not be able to break through either, their goal is to keep the acquired territories. Joachim Krause, a professor at the University of Kiel, is more optimistic and sees that, at the cost of heavy losses, the Ukrainians can move the situation of the front out of the current state if they cross the Dnieper. This is contradicted by his colleague from Kiel, Thomas Eger, who says that the Russian side is much better equipped with ammunition, so the stalemate will certainly remain for the foreseeable future. The former US NATO ambassador, Douglas Lute, also emphasizes the lack of technology and ammunition.
"Former commander in chief of NATO forces, retired admiral James Stavridis, goes even further, who believes that Ukraine must come to terms with the temporary loss of its territories"
As for Bloomberg , Moscow can keep Crimea and the land connection between the peninsula and Russia. Of course, no one will like this, he adds, including Russia. According to Stavridis, Ukraine must realize that it cannot win, so it must stop the war, as South Korea once did, and start rebuilding.
"But the former secretary general of the organization, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, essentially accepts the loss of territory with his proposal for quick Ukrainian NATO accession"
The Danish politician told the British Guardian the other day that Ukraine should be included in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization with its current territories. As he emphasized, this step would not mean freezing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. According to Rasmussen, the partial accession and the accompanying obligation of assistance from the alliance partners would deter Russia from attacking Ukrainian territories within NATO and thus allow the Ukrainian armed forces to concentrate on frontline battles.
"The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs is also pessimistic about Ukraine's chances of victory. According to Josep Borrell, it is not expected that Ukraine will win against Russia in the near future"
The High Representative - who spoke about all of this at the Malaga congress of the European Socialist Party - also noted that, at the same time, it is necessary to prepare for the possibility that the American aid intended for Ukraine will decrease, and that these must be compensated for Kiev. According to Borrell, this task will fall to the European Union. The question is whether the EU can handle and wants to take on this extra burden. It is a warning that the High Representative's summer proposal that the EU establish a fund that would support Ukraine with a maximum of 5 billion euros annually for four years - as part of the broader security commitments of Western countries - in the fight against the Russian invasion, may fail due to the resistance of the member states. However, while the EU defense ministers are expected to discuss the plan today, according to diplomats, several countries, including Germany, which is considered to be a heavyweight, have expressed reservations about committing such large sums years in advance.
"The question of long-term financing of Ukraine is being raised more and more acutely within the European Union, and the opposition to it is also growing in parallel"
Der Spiegel, for example, explains that Volodymyr Zelensky effectively used the media to win support from the West, which led to significant military aid. However, the United States could reduce aid to Ukraine, which could be disastrous for the Ukrainian military, which is facing a huge weapons shortage. In this regard, the magazine points out that the German government, although one of the main supporters of Ukraine, has admitted that it cannot fully compensate for the lack of American aid. Spiegel financial and military assistance, cannot take the place of the United States. The reason for Germany's reticence is the growing popularity of forces that criticize Ukraine's thoughtless and endless support.
"Hungarian and now similar Slovak reservations regarding the financing of Ukraine are therefore being supported by more and more people, albeit more quietly"
If only because European societies are becoming more and more war-weary, and the political elite must somehow respond to this. Already 57 percent of the population in Slovakia, 58 percent in Cyprus, 58 percent in Bulgaria, 56 percent in Austria, 53 percent in Greece, and 54 percent in Hungary do not support the EU paying for the arming of Ukraine. But it is also a warning that, based on the Eurobarometer survey measuring the average of the entire Union, compared to 42 percent in April 2022, only 26 percent fully support the armed and financial support of Ukraine. But the mood in the United States is also changing. While in May, before the start of the counterattack, 46 percent of those surveyed agreed that Ukraine should be helped with weapons, today this proportion is only 41 percent based on Reuters/Ipso 34 percent of Democratic voters, while 56 percent of Republicans believe that the issue of Ukraine is not America's business. These data also show that more and more people feel that Ukraine is a sinking ship that must be disembarked in time.
"U.S. domestic politics, especially the Republican Party's position on funding, make it difficult to continue supporting Ukraine"
"Week by week it becomes more difficult to create the tools and capabilities necessary for Ukraine to defend its territory and push forward," Jake Sullivan, President Biden's national security adviser, said at a press conference yesterday. Military and financial support does not depend on President Biden's promise, Sullivan pointed out, but on the will of Congress. The lower house with a Republican majority is putting obstacles in the way of the support and has made it conditional on ensuring the salaries of the public sector workers that the government does not transfer to Kyiv the amount recently put into perspective. “The window is closing,” Sullivan said. They cannot give Ukraine everything it needs, he added bitterly.
"They see this in Kiev as well, so according to strana.ua
The former American president, through the Republican majority, essentially controls the Congress blocking Ukrainian subsidies. Presumably, the fact that Andrij Jermak, the head of the presidential office, is currently in the United States as a member of a Ukrainian delegation is also related to this endeavor. However, Trump does not really want to talk to Zelenskyi, and even tries to stay away from the increasingly embarrassing Ukrainian issue. He is presumably saving this topic for the campaign to blame Biden for his failure despite the support.
"But war fatigue is beginning to overwhelm even the Ukrainian society, which has been presented as clearly enthusiastic so far"
Although election-related popularity indicators have not been published in Ukraine for some time, strana.ua obtained internal surveys. According to this, if the presidential election were to be held now, and the popular commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny would run, the current head of state, Volodymyr Zelensky, would win with a result of between 30 and 40 percent. Zaluzhnyi's support is 20-30 percent, but it should be noted that the chief of staff has not yet spoken about his intention to run, and such an announcement usually boosts his popularity. As for the parliamentary elections, a possible party behind Zaluzsny would get 20-25 percent, while the Servant of the People would get only 10-02. The party of Pritula and Poroshenko would receive around five percent.
"And why there is dissatisfaction with the authorities is clearly shown by the case below, which is spreading on social media"
In Ungvár, with the help of police and soldiers, the staff of the military auxiliary command forcefully took away a bus driver transporting sports children from Vinnytsia to a competition. He was busted in the hostel and collected along with others. His phone was taken away, so he couldn't inform his family or coaches about what happened. The authorities were also not interested in the fact that he was the only driver of the bus, so the children were stranded in Ungvár. The summons was pressed into the hands of the bus driver and he was already on his way to Chernihiv. The Vinnytsia commander took over the transport of the children, and the transport company sent a new driver, but no one dared to go in for the keys of the bus left in the military reserve. In the end, a lady who moved from Mariupol took on this.
Photo: EUROPRESS/Sergei SUPINSKY/AFP
