According to some news, Charles Michel will offer a settlement to the Hungarian Prime Minister, because his only goal is to ensure that the EU summit to be held on December 15-16 does not become a complete failure.
Tired of Brussels politics, the Hungarian government recently took a bold and logical step: just a few weeks before the EU summit in December - where the start of Ukraine's accession process and the transfer of aid will be the main topic - wrote a letter to the President of the European Council, in which a strategic discussion demanded its convocation regarding Ukraine.
In the letter, the Prime Minister requested an urgent reinterpretation of the EU-Ukraine relationship, with particular regard to the freezing of the war in Ukraine, the sanctions policy, the amount and transparency of aid, and Ukraine's accession intentions.
According to the news, the prime minister insists on this consultation, otherwise Hungary will veto all proposals related to Ukraine that do not require a broader consultation, including the disbursement of the 50 billion euro aid.
The EU officials reacted in the usual way, mentioning blackmail and entrapment, while hinting that all this is about nothing else, just that this is how the Hungarian government tries to extort the 13 billion euros withheld from Hungary (rightfully).
However, Charles Michel overcame his artificial indignation and immediately requested an appointment at Karmelita so that he could speak personally with the Hungarian Prime Minister.
Monday's visit was announced by the spokesperson of the European Council somewhat curtly, but speculations have already started about what kind of gift Michel might be hiding in his luggage.
According to Politico's information, the President of the Council will offer Viktor Orbán a compromise, as his only goal is to ensure that the EU summit to be held on December 15-16 does not become a complete failure. However, if the Prime Minister starts to veto, then the whole meeting will have no meaning, just as Brussels' promises to Ukraine will also be put in the freezer.
Since the outbreak of the war, Viktor Orbán has not used the veto option for the first time, but in each case he used it only when Brussels' promises or plans not only contradicted Hungary's interests, but specifically threatened them.
Such was the case with the preparation of the sixth sanctions package, when the Prime Minister also wrote to Michel, requesting a wider consultation, because - as he wrote - the proposed oil sanctions, if accepted, would immediately cause serious supply disruptions in Hungary and undermine its vital energy security interests.
The fact that so far Hungary has been able to reach an agreement with the EU's leading bodies in every case, and in the end has always voted yes with regard to sanctions packages and aid, gives some Brussels bureaucrats the impression that Viktor Orbán is only bluffing when he mentions a veto. They ignore the fact that the mentioned decisions could only be put into practice after they were formulated taking into account and accepting the interests of Hungary.
In other words, all Brussels proposals related to Ukraine could only rise to a higher level if, in accordance with the government's demands, the elements that had a negative impact on Hungary were weeded out of it.
Those who call it a bluff are now shouting more softly when they see Charles Michel's flight booking.
The President of the European Council knows exactly what is at stake. (Yes, including your own reputation and career.) The United States will most likely exit the group of super-financiers keeping Ukraine on a ventilator, leaving Europe alone, with its budget problems and borrowing mania already pushing it into a giant hole.
It is not only Viktor Orbán who raises the question of how long it is possible to continue an endless war without the primary help of the USA - it is a different matter that he is the only one who says it out loud.
In an unusually low-quality opinion piece the other day, Bloomberg criticized the Hungarian government's policy in relation to Brussels and Ukraine, and at the same time criticized the European Commission, saying that the transfer of almost 1 billion euros from the withheld funds to Hungary was announced simply because they are trying to influence Viktor Orbán that Ukraine in questions. The author recommends that the European Union simply avoids Hungary in the areas related to Ukraine, but by no means give it the withheld amounts.
One of the problems with the blackmail theory is that both the Hungarian government and Brussels categorically deny it.
Eric Mamer, the spokesperson of the European Commission, made it clear at his press conference on Thursday: the EU's executive body is simply following the rules, and the 1 billion euros that will soon be transferred have nothing to do with the rule of law requirements or Ukraine.
It is simply referred to because it suits Hungary - that is, it says the same thing that the Hungarian government has been communicating for a very long time.
The other problem is that neither Brussels nor the European Council thinks that Hungary can be left out of anything. This attitude would otherwise assume normal functioning, but in the background there is also the fact that Brussels (and Ursula von der Leyen personally) is afraid of the possibility that the concept of the "geopolitical union" she announced will fall to pieces due to the lack of unity. However, with regard to the wars in Ukraine and Israel, the increasingly large fault lines are clearly visible.
As for the rest: it will be difficult to organize an EU enlargement without the unanimous yes of the member states, even if the European Parliament already envisages the abolition of the member state veto.
Charles Michel is perfectly aware of all this. If you are traveling to Budapest on November 27 to negotiate based on pragmatic arguments, listening with the intention of mediation and at least trying to interpret the Hungarian position, everyone can do well. If he arrives with flowers instead of flowers, then very unpleasant moments await him. And that's just the beginning of his bad mood.
Cover photo: Charles Michel knows exactly that the entire EU summit in December could become pointless if he does not clarify the issues related to Ukraine with the Hungarian Prime Minister
Source: Facebook/Viktor Orbán
