We increasingly have the political feeling that left-wing organizations currently want to defeat each other rather than the government. Ervin Nagy, the XXI. Writing of the analyst of the Century Institute.
The left is in a worse position than in 2021, before they agreed on total cooperation. If the European Parliament elections were held now, Momentum would probably lose one seat, Jobbik and MSZP would be eliminated, and the others would not reach the entrance threshold - but Mi Hazánk Mozgalom would enter instead.
The picture is colored by the fact that, according to current opinion polls, the Democratic Coalition can increase the number of EU representatives to five - with roughly the same number of votes as last time.
So there is still a political formation that came out relatively well from the catastrophic defeat of '22. However, all this is tinsel glory and Ferencsány Ferencsány should also manage this "success" in its proper place, because in fact they are not taking their breath away from the governing parties, but from each other.
Power gravitates in politics, just as stability is an attractive quality. It also often overrides value. What's more, if someone is able to show serious fitness and growth potential, they will also attract those who are insecure. This legality also exists in reverse, because who would like to vote for an unstable dwarf party struggling with its own crisis, which has neither a vision nor a chance for growth?
In the European Parliament elections, we cast our votes on party lists, and since there is a five percent threshold, the small parties have an even smaller chance of running, because the citizen can legitimately fear that the vote he casts will be "lost".
So far, it's clear, logical and nothing special. But the consequence of recognizing this legality put the parties of the left-wing opposition in a strange situation. The advantage of the governing parties is unattainable, and the number of EU mandates is limited, so we increasingly see that the opposition is not (only) fighting against the right, but also with its former or future potential allies. Moreover, we increasingly have the political feeling that left-wing organizations currently want to defeat each other rather than the government. Maybe they are preparing for 2026...
The Democratic Coalition makes no secret of all this, the Ferenc Gyurcsánys do not hold back. After the wave of endorsements and the formation of the shadow government, which is barely functioning anymore, they unabashedly started and continue to successfully subdue the left.
There are several reasons for this partial success. On the one hand, among the left-wing organizations, they are the only ones that show stability in terms of organization and management, and what they have to say has not changed over the years. There were no personal antagonisms, internal wars and ideological twists and turns. They did not change the excuse that Ferenc Gyurcsány is the most rejected politician in Hungary, and they did not modify their program even when they saw that there was no social majority behind their most important political goals. Such as the idea of a United States of Europe.
While the others have had countless exits, leadership changes and organizational restructuring in recent years, as well as their identity constantly being pulled back and forth, the Democratic Coalition has not changed. He was consistent, persistent and steadfast.
As a result, such an absurd situation was created in the opposition field that while the renewal of the losing parties became one of the most important demands of the voters, one of the biggest obstacles to renewal, Ferenc Gyurcsány and the Democratic Coalition, was able to gain strength after the 2022 elections to the detriment of the others. This political science experience contradicts the "textbook rules".
Of course, the reasons can also be discovered in this case.
The pandemic, the war, the economic and energy crisis caused by the failed EU sanctions (or the increase in illegal immigration that threatens our security) filled the European and Hungarian people with concern. And these existential, political and cultural fears necessarily tipped the balance towards the parties that have been stable for years, large or bigger than the others, which politicize with a definite idea. Crises and global threats further strengthened the operation of gravitational forces observable in politics.
In Hungary, the governing parties are currently able to create the strongest sense of security, and on the opposition side, the Gyurcsánys are able to show strength. (The Mi Hazánk Movement is an exception, as it is increasingly credibly claiming the continuity of the national radical subculture.)
Compared to domestic conditions, in several European countries, however, the calm before the storm can be seen. The old big parties (which showed stability) have worn out and lost their credibility. We do not see the extent of this yet, but it will become clear at the latest in the EU elections, as the competition for the distribution of seats for the opposition in this country will also be decided.
Cover photo: Vice President László Varju, Party President Ferenc Gyurcsány, his wife, European Parliament member Klára Dobrev and Executive Vice President Csaba Molnár (bj) at the birthday event of the Democratic Coalition (DK) in Budapest on October 22, 2023.
Source: MTI/Róbert Hegedüs
