The ball is on in Berlin! The four chief officers of the Luftwaffe discussed in an overheard and published online conversation, when do they cross the red line of becoming a direct war party? The senior officers came to the conclusion that they would have entrusted the feeding of the exact target data of the Taurus missiles to the British, who were already "present anyway" in Ukraine, relatively quickly. Since the US is not currently handing over missiles with such a range to Ukraine, four options remain...

One of the effects of the "long COVID" is the online meeting, which is why the four chief officers of the Luftwaffe chose this form to discuss how to operate the missiles if, as a result of a political decision, Berlin Taurus cruise missiles are handed over to Ukraine. The optimal operation of Taurus cruise missiles with a range of up to 500 kilometers requires not only two years of training, but also target data that the Ukrainians do not have, but the Germans do. During the long half-hour meeting, the officers went through all the possibilities and came to the conclusion that if German soldiers feed the target data or help the Ukrainians locally, then Germany could quickly become a belligerent party. Let's watch the story from the beginning!

Ukraine is running out of soldiers and ammunition, so Kiev has only two spectacular military tools left: preparing for the next "counterattack", for which money and weapons can be requested from Western supporters, and targeted attacks against Russian military and transport infrastructure. For the latter, the Storm Shadow and Scalp cruise missiles previously delivered by the British and French are used, which can travel 250 kilometers. Chancellor Scholz only hinted last week that the British and French are helping to program the data of Russian targets into missiles, the Luftwaffe officers have already said in the now leaked conversation that the British are "in the field", that is, they are helping the Ukrainians on the spot when operating rockets. The British defense minister, Ben Wallace, also noted that "Chancellor Scholz is the wrong man, in the wrong job and at the worst possible time."

As Kiev is running out of the missiles it has handed over so far, pressure is mounting on the Germans to hand over their Taurus missiles, which have a range of up to 500 kilometers, to the Ukrainians. Since the USA will not hand over missiles with such a range, Chancellor Scholz is reluctant to give the green signal. The already "proven" circular exchange for tanks, called Ringtausch in German, gives way: the Germans give their own Taurus missiles to the British and French, and the latter give additional missiles to the Ukrainians, which they "already" know. The British and French are understandably not enthusiastic about this and are entrusting the Germans with direct delivery of missiles to Ukraine. During his visit to Berlin in September 2023, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said that "in the end you will hand over the Tauruses anyway!".

The pro-war German politicians have already argued that it is possible to "solve" the operation of the German missiles, but they did not add what the German officers have now gone through: the missiles would be remotely controlled from a base in Germany, or the target data would be sent by car to Poland, where they would be handed over to the Ukrainians. The most creative solution would have been for the target data to "travel" to Ukraine from the machine of a German soldier in the "Home Office". They also dismissed the possibility that German soldiers would "watch over the shoulders of the Ukrainians" in Ukraine, but this was quickly dismissed, saying that it would be participation in war, so the British would rather do it, who already "have people in the field anyway".

According to German senior officers, the Ukrainians want to destroy the Kerch bridge at all costs, which they estimate would require 20-30 missiles. It was immediately brought up here that the Russian end of the bridge belonged to Russia even before 2014, so its attack would be wartime aggression. They talked less about the fact that German soldiers who fought in Ukraine would return to Ukraine after eighty years with such an action and attack Russian targets. The caution of German officers is no accident. The scientific service of the Bundestag already wrote in March 2022 that, in their opinion, the transfer of weapons does not mean taking sides in the war. Teaching how to handle transferred weapons, or directly helping Ukrainian attacks, on the other hand, already "leaves the safe territory of becoming a non-war party". According to the 2nd sentence of Article 51 of the UN Charter, "orders adopted" against an aggressor state in favor of the attacked party (for example, military support) should be reported to the UN Security Council immediately after they have taken place.

The online conversation intercepted by the Russians and now made public before this year's elections strengthens the position of Chancellor Scholz, who does not want to drag his country further into the conflict, so four solutions remain (probably):

  1. Everything will remain the same until the autumn provincial elections, the Germans will not give Taurus to the Ukrainians without a similar step by the Americans.
  2. The original plan remains: the Germans give the British and French Taurus missiles, and the latter support Kiev with additional Storm Shadow and Sclap missiles.
  3. Washington also provides cruise missiles to the Ukrainians, and the allies arrange for the Ukrainians to provide the target data necessary for the accurate operation of the missiles.
  4. Scholz changes his position, and the Germans deliver Taurus to the Ukrainians without a similar American step and solve the transfer of target data.

Moscow released this wiretapped conversation just as Macron was talking about sending Western troops to Ukraine. It would be nice to put on the brakes! The war must not be escalated, but ended as soon as possible with an armistice and peace negotiations.

Source: mogzasterblog.hu

Cover photo: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the opening ceremony of the new high-speed ICE train factory of German state railway company Deutsche Bahn in Cottbus on January 11, 2024. MTI/EPA/Filip Singer