left-wing voters are mainly divided between Péter Magyar's party (21 percent), the DK-MSZP-Párbeszéd coalition (12 percent) and the Two-Tailed Dog Party (7 percent), while Momentum (1 percent) and Jobbik (1 percent) would no longer be able to enter the European Parliament on its own.
They reminded that the parties' first test before the European Parliament elections due in a month was the collection of the 20,000 valid signatures necessary for the establishment of a list: while the governing parties were the first to submit the registers, not all parties that submitted a list managed to fulfill the conditions necessary to run, Péter Jakab mobilization also caused problems for his party, so he cannot run in the elections.
They continued to continue
the Fidesz-KDNP list (48 percent) leads the party competition one month before the European Parliament elections, although it would reach 44 percent in a parliamentary election, which would correspond to the result of the 2014 domestic election.
According to the Nézőpont Institute, the reason for the difference is that Fidesz sympathizers said they were more active in the upcoming European Parliament elections than in the case of the parliamentary elections, which currently have no stakes and are further away.
As they wrote, the government's right-wing opposition can also legitimately hope to win a mandate:
the Mi Hazánk Movement would not only enter the Hungarian parliament with a high probability (6 percent), but with a result of 5 percent it could also gain an EP mandate.
They stated that the left would have several big losers both at home and in the European competition, since Péter Magyar seems to have permanently transformed the left into three divisions.
Riding on the opposition-changing mood, the Tisza Party is currently the most popular opposition party (with 21 percent support in an EP election "this Sunday"), alongside the Democratic Coalition (DK) - MSZP - Párbeszéd joint list (12 percent), and the Two-Tailed Dog The party (7 percent) represents the other two left-wing poles, they pointed out.
Due to Péter Jakab's failure to submit a list, fewer left-wing votes may be lost in the EP elections, after Jakab's approximately 2 percent of voters can strengthen Péter Magyar's party and the Gyurcsány coalition on the basis of secondary preferences, which they also counted on in their estimation, they wrote.
According to the research, Momentum (1 percent) and Jobbik (1 percent), which won an EP mandate five years ago, do not even come close to the 5 percent threshold, while Gábor Vona's party (3 percent) is ahead of them, but cannot count on getting in either. The independent LMP (1 percent) and Péter Márki-Zay's party (1 percent) are also far from the possibility of winning a mandate, they added.
Regarding the support of the left-wing parties, there is no significant difference in the case of a parliamentary and European parliamentary election "this Sunday": Péter Magyar's party (22 percent) and the DK-MSZP-P coalition (13 percent) would only achieve a higher ratio by 1 percentage point each. a parliamentary as in an EP election. Among the other left-wing parties, only the MKKP (7 percent) would independently enter the Hungarian Parliament, according to the research.
MTI
Photo: MTI/Balázs Mohai
