According to JD Vance, the new Republican vice president of the United States, a compromise is needed to end the Russian-Ukrainian war, which would also include a referendum - the Russian-speaking population of the majority of the occupied territories could decide their own fate.
The American Conservative wrote Vice President Donald Trump's proposal for ending the war:
“Vance offered a proposal worth considering to end the war in Ukraine: a halt to the fighting where troops from both sides are currently on the battlefield and the creation of a reinforced demilitarized zone to prevent another invasion by Russia.
Ukraine's sovereignty would be guaranteed in exchange for territory occupied by Russia, and its neutrality would be guaranteed - meaning it would not be admitted to NATO.
Vance argues that Germany should finance the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Vance's proposal should be the starting point for a more realistic discussion about ending the war in Ukraine, which is devastating for Ukraine and increasingly costly for Russia. Putin's aggression against Ukraine must be strongly condemned, and it is understandable if he wants to get all of Ukraine's territory back.
However, Vance seems to be correct in arguing that the huge costs of continuing a massive but largely stalemated war are unsustainable in the long term even for rich countries like the US and Europe, especially when there is much more power locally (fighters, equipment and resources) Russia has the upper hand in a continuous war of attrition.
Even now, despite the Russian losses, Ukraine seems to be making a much greater effort than Russia to get the necessary combat equipment onto the battlefield.
The United States and Europe have the influence behind the scenes to convince the Ukrainians to come to the realistic conclusion that they will not get all their territory back and that a negotiated settlement of the conflict is necessary.
What could provide a fig leaf for both belligerent countries is if referendums were held in the occupied territories of Ukraine and now Russia on which government the people living there, mostly Russian-speaking, would like to live under.
These should be internationally verified referendums.
Vance is right that Ukraine should retain its independent and neutral sovereignty, but should not be admitted to NATO.
The foreign policy elite of the United States and Europe had a hard time processing the fact that Russia, which has been invaded many times from the West, feels threatened by a hostile alliance extended to its borders.
The United States would likely be vehemently opposed to Mexico or Canada entering into an anti-US alliance with Russia or China.
The other thing that Joe Biden and the American foreign policy elite have never worked out is that
alliances are not an end in themselves, but a means of security.
If war broke out again between Ukraine and Russia, as it did in 2014 and 2022, and Ukraine is a NATO member, the United States would be obligated under Article V of the treaty to directly defend Ukraine against a nuclear-armed superpower.
Dragging the United States into an unnecessary and potentially cataclysmic war with Russia would hardly improve American security.
And since the fate of Ukraine and Russia is of less strategic importance to the distant United States than to nearby Europe, Vance is right that Germany (and other wealthy European nations) should foot the bill for reconstruction.”
Featured image: Vice presidential candidate JD Vance, Ohio, speaks during the third day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 17, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. MTI/EPA/Jim Lo Scalzo
