Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary gained a lot by not immediately following Slovakia and Slovenia into the eurozone after joining the EU, writes Central Bank Governor György Matolcsi in a publication the other day.
That is why Romania can also be among the winners. - the train of thought continues. Bulgaria and Croatia will probably no longer lose with the expected eurozone membership in the near future, because these two states could not win even with an independent monetary policy without the euro. The southern countries of Europe - with or without the euro - both lost ground compared to the northern EU member states in the first two decades of the history of the common European currency.
The strongest effect of the euro on the V4 group is that, with the exception of Slovakia, they were able to exchange places within Europe without the euro in the last two decades.
Compared to the southern Eurozone countries – Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece – they achieved stronger economic dynamics and catch-up in the first two decades of the euro. This is even true for half-north/half-south France. The historical shift is best seen in the foreign trade and investment relations between Germany and the V4, where we have overtaken the Southern Eurogroup in the last two decades.
Today, the V4 group - especially the countries using the three national currencies - can be the growth engine of the EU because they have preserved more room for independent economic and monetary policy. Among the EU victims of the 2007/2009 global financial crisis, Hungary was the most successful in terms of economic and budget consolidation, as well as growth and catch-up, because it did not have to conform to the general rules of the Eurozone .
Knowing all this, it is not surprising why an opposition victory would mean a dramatic reversal and an economic disaster for Hungary. According to the still secret, but leaked plan, a referendum could be called with either street anarchy or electoral victory, which would bring the country into the Eurozone by circumventing the Basic Law. Early joining the euro would bring disaster!
It is not possible to leave the euro zone, except by leaving the EU, which no sane person would undertake: this would make Hungary's backwardness, together with the euro, permanent.
Source and full article: magyarhirlap.hu
Featured photo: MH
