GKI Gazdaságkutátó very significantly raised its growth forecast for this year from 4.3 percent in March to 7 percent in its June forecast.
The research institute explained the exceptionally large change with the faster-than-expected recovery from the crisis, the rapid growth in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, the end of the third wave of the epidemic and the favorable development of economic expectations.
In March, above all, the GKI underestimated the export surplus. In his latest forecast, he increased the growth rate of exports from 7.5 percent to 10.5 percent, while that of imports by 0.5 percentage points to 9.0 percent. The total foreign trade assets can be around 10 billion euros.
This year, thanks to the real earnings and the first week of the 13th monthly pension and the pension premium, the real pension may increase by around 4 percent. The increase in consumption may be around 3.5 percent due to the differentiation of incomes.
GDP is expected to exceed the level of 2019 already this year, and growth is expected in all sectors except the real estate sector. In industry, gross production may increase by slightly over 10 percent, in the construction industry by 8-9 percent, and retail turnover may increase by over 5 percent.
In terms of employment, last year's significant decrease in the number of employees, which fell short of the GDP decline, and the increase in unemployment this year will be followed by stagnation, and the fluctuations at the beginning of the year are expected to be followed by an improvement from the end of spring. If another epidemic does not break out, an annual average employment rate similar to last year's, slightly higher, slightly above 62 percent, and unemployment close to last year's 4.1 percent are expected, the GKI announced.
The spring amendment of this year's budget raised the previously planned deficit of 2.9 percent of GDP to 7.5 percent. The cash flow deficit rose from HUF 1,491 billion to HUF 3,990 billion. The GKI expects a deficit in proportion to GDP of around 7.5 percent and a public debt of less than 80 percent.
As a result of the continuing fiscal policy, the monetary policy announcing the start of spectacular tightening measures will not be able to significantly reduce inflation, according to the research institute, so an annual average price increase of 4.2 percent, a base interest rate at the end of the year of around 1.2 percent and an annual average of HUF 350-355 euro is expected.
Despite the improving foreign trade balance, GKI expects a significant deficit of 4.5 billion euros in the current account due to Audi's huge 6 billion euro dividend.
Source: MTI
Featured photo: gki.hu
