There is not enough open government communication with Russia and China, and the resulting misunderstandings put the West at risk of a nuclear war, believes Sir Stephen Lovegrove, the British Prime Minister's chief national security adviser.
Although in recent years it was more common to fear a nuclear attack in connection with the North Korean dictator, the Russian offensive in February overrode everything; And Moscow is apparently playing on this.
gave a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, on the subject of the planned telephone conversation between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, for the first time since March. the tension over Taiwan and the taxes imposed on Chinese goods under Donald Trump will be the topics of discussion.
Sir Stephen Lovegrove explained in his presentation,
rival superpowers understood each other better during the Cold War,
today, however, the lack of dialogue leads to many misunderstandings and false conclusions, and decision-makers hold themselves accountable in relation to other states.
The expert quoted a saying attributed to Winston Churchill, the essence of which was that dialogue is always better than war. He added that he thinks we live in an era when dangerous weapons have become much easier to access due to their proliferation. In relation to the effects of the Russian invasion, he explained that a much broader competition for the post-Cold War world order had unfolded. "During the decades of the Cold War, the Westerners gained an advantage during negotiations in learning about Russian doctrines and capabilities, and vice versa," he said. And this had the advantage that
there was the confidence of the decision-makers on the ground that they would not hold us accountable enough to maneuver the world into a nuclear war.
"We don't have the foundations for that today with those who could threaten us in the future, especially China," Lovegrove said. According to the expert, "the trust and transparency built through dialogue also means that if we experience inappropriate behavior, we can more actively draw attention to it."
Because according to him, the current situation carries the danger of an "uncontrolled conflict", fueled by Russia's series of violations of peace agreements, as well as by China's rapid nuclear armament, while clearly disregarding the relevant international control mechanisms.
The expert also assessed the extremely rapid development of technology as a threat, citing the increase in the number of states possessing land-based missiles as an example. Since, according to Lovegrove, there is now no chance of new agreements between all the great powers being concluded,
NATO member states must devote their energies to strategic risk reduction.
"Confidence-building steps must be taken and the root causes of fear, tensions and hostilities must be eliminated," he said.
The British prime minister's chief national security adviser added: "Trust would be increased if states spoke openly about their military capabilities and plans."
For years, Lovegrove has emphasized the importance of working together with countries that oppose many Western values, but whose interests may occasionally be similar to those of the West. By definition, the fear of a nuclear attack is, by definition, greater in society than its real chance, which experts still underestimate.
Photo: Pixabay
