Ukraine's neutrality is worthless, a current division would only be a symptomatic treatment, according to Israeli security policy expert Robert C. Castel, a staff member of Neokohn, who spoke to Mandiner.

I don't have any background information about the leaked peace plan, but we have already learned that in this war there is only one thing that does not exist, that "doesn't exist" , said the security policy expert when asked by Mandiner, who said that since he does not have the means to examines the question of the credibility of a peace plan, the only thing it can analyze is the viability of the plan.

What is not viable is that negotiations are currently underway and

in the middle of the negotiations, Russia gives up a very important card without getting anything in return

Castel emphasizes.

If there is a qui pro quo, it will be a sign that the Russians will not retreat under fire and get something in return for Kherson. These are the signs you should pay attention to in the coming days. The analogy here is Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, and the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the USA withdrew missiles from Turkey in exchange for the missiles withdrawn from Cuba, explains Robert C. Castel to Mandiner.

The explanation for this is that when a state considers withdrawing from a war, it takes into account the balance of power in the broadest sense and the guarantees that the opposing party will adhere to the terms of the ceasefire. Unfortunately, one of the experiences of the interminable conflict in Ukraine is that the relevant international guarantees are worthless - Castel cites the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 as an example.

Ukraine's promise of neutrality is not worth as much as the paper on which the treaty is printed

Castel believes. As he says: Russia has no guarantee that Ukraine will not become even more of a de facto, if not de jure, NATO member state. And Ukraine has no guarantee that Russia will not try to attack it again in a short period of time. The leaked details of the contract are a bit like someone trying to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by dividing the Old City of Jerusalem in two. In other words, in addition to one answered question, a dozen other questions remained unanswered - reflects Robert C. Castel for Mandiner.

For this cease-fire or peace plan to work, a series of questions must be answered that, if not answered, could blow up the agreement in five minutes

- believes the expert.

If one of the root causes of the war was NATO's eastward expansion, then the question is what kind of guarantees Russia will receive in this regard. If another idea was the reason for the war, which is considered naive in Castel's eyes, namely that Russia was frightened by the fact that democracy was approaching its borders, so to speak, then the question is what the West will do to ensure that the Russians are no longer frightened in the future. And if the root cause was Ukraine's minority policy, then the question is, what guarantees can minorities and their home countries get to respect their rights, while the EU has so far been unable to guarantee minority rights within its own borders?

If, in the end, the root cause was the economic and energy competition between two Eastern European powers, how do they divide the market between them so that the competition does not lead to another war? What guarantees will Ukraine receive that the adventures of 2014 and 2022 will not be repeated in the near future?

According to Robert C. Caster, all things considered, the potential draft of "two counties for me, two counties for you"

it could be a very superficial symptomatic treatment in a geopolitical crisis that stretches one of the most important global fault lines.

Let's not allow ourselves to get away with it so easily! - Robert C. Castel concludes his thoughts on the leaked alleged peace plan for Mandiner.

The full article can be read HERE

Cover photo: AFP / Sergey Bobok