It seems that the German farmers are becoming more and more hardened: for Monday, a larger than ever demonstration was announced in Berlin, which was also joined by the carriers. According to Zoltán Kiszelly, the anger of the farmers may result in the split of the government coalition.

The producers were left with no other choice due to government restrictions, so they took to the streets. "We want to ensure that road tolls and diesel prices are not increased. In addition, we are fighting to maintain the previous subsidies," farmer Hubertus Krupp summarized their demands.

The left-liberal government would withdraw 480 million euros from farmers, eliminating diesel subsidies and reducing tax incentives. Later they retracted: only a part of the measures would be implemented, and not immediately, but gradually.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz did not appear before the farmers, he refused to talk to them. According to security policy expert György Nógrádi, this was a fundamental mistake on Scholz's part, since every demonstration that starts with an economic goal will take a political direction after a while.

The public mood in Germany is more tense, 70 percent of Germans support the farmers, 80 percent of Olaf Scholz are rejected. The federal government has no option to undo the austerity measures, so the coalition may break, but a new chancellor or an early election may also be possible.

What is most likely is that they will amend the budget - explained Zoltán Kiszelly.

According to the political analysis director of Századvég, they want to declare a state of emergency based on plan "A", because in this case the debt brake does not have to be taken into account. The coalition probably won't split because the majority of liberals are in favor of staying. And plan "B" - if the former fails - is to change the chancellor with a constructive motion of no confidence.

Currently, there is a social democratic majority for this, with the name of the successor. He would definitely be a social democratic politician, said Zoltán Kiszelly, who says that the most popular on this page is Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. If the debt brake were turned off, the planned austerity would be better distributed, he added.

A possible early election would result in a grand coalition.

If there was a pre-arranged election as plan "C", the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) would probably win it, but they would also need the Social Democratic Party (SPD) to form a government. However, according to the analyst, the signs point more in the direction of banning the Alternative for Germany (AfD). If this were to take place before the European Union elections, they would be knocked out of the saddle by using the Potsdam remigration meeting against them.

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A possible new chancellor could mean new impetus, but according to Zoltán Kiszelly, the reality of this is not very visible.

He would obviously be a politician who was part of the previous politics, he pointed out, so only minor changes could be expected from him. Perhaps it would somewhat tighten the migration policy, but there would be no real change. This year, a record number of 330,000 migrants arrived in Germany. Based on the Italian plans, they will join the conduct of migrants' procedures outside the EU. A new chancellor might be able to cosmeticize the current policy. The Greens and the Liberals would probably give in, but there would not be a big change in substance, he emphasized.

Zoltán Kiszelly called the behavior of pushing the protesting farmers into the corner of the extreme right a bad government reflex, this does not work for the farmers, he emphasized. The protests also clearly show that Olaf Scholz is more unpopular than ever at the beginning of 2024.

If the Free Democrats were to leave the coalition, Scholz would probably call a vote of confidence, in which, according to all reasonable calculations, he would fail.

According to another option, he would form a minority government with the Greens, but this has not yet been done at the federal level. The final decision would be made by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Hungarian Nation

Cover image: German farmers' demonstration in Berlin last December
Source: X/RT