The opposition primaries to be held between September 18 and 26, costing 130 million forints, are approaching, which do not exist in the sense of public law in Hungary, but at least they are entertaining.
Individual constituency candidates will be selected, who can run with joint support in 2022, and you can also vote for prime minister candidates, now without József Pálinkás, who dropped out due to lack of interest; he couldn't jump the fence either, he didn't manage to collect twenty thousand signatures. Then, if no one among the Prime Minister-candidates-candidates obtains the absolute majority of the votes, i.e. half of all votes and at least one vote more than that, then a second round will follow, which in this case will be held between October 4 and 10.
So far, the facts, and what follows somewhat go against the opinion of the right-wing mainstream, the statement that the solution to the primary election formula will be Gergely Karácsony anyway. It is indisputable that the Gyurcsány party is the strongest force in the unethical coalition, but it is highly debatable that the leadership of this party decided with a cool head and rationally to rely on the numbers to put Karácsony into a position, because the mayor is the only color spot in the opposition palette, who may soon face Viktor Orbán.
The numbers are revealing, of course, but they are by no means telling everything, and we have already experienced that they can sometimes be downright misleading. So now let's move away from the rationality of mathematics, if only because the Democratic Coalition is perhaps the only mass party in Hungary for which rationality is never the main argument. They are the ones who tell black people to be white without batting an eye, they are the champions of alternative reality construction, although there is no doubt that Péter Jakab seems to be slowly catching up in demagoguery.
DK has two types of sympathizers: the marginal minority support Gyurcsány simply out of a well-understood (financial) interest, while the majority of them stick to their leader as sectarians. Of course, sectarian voters occur in all people's parties, but in the DK this type of voter is present at a rate of over 90 percent. This means that everything is decided on an emotional basis, reality has no influence on the party's ethos or its actions. Regardless of the fact that Gyurcsány brought the country to the brink of state bankruptcy and launched a cavalry charge against the Hungarians, beating and maiming people, for a DK this is just a figment of Fidesz. The Ószöd speech has now advanced into a truth speech, and Klára Dobrev has become the benefactor of the Hungarian nation, the only guarantee of the future. He alone is capable of governing, creating national unity and making Hungary flourish. Not a word of this is true, of course, but a DK still believes it . All of this is extremely difficult for someone who looks at politics and future elections rationally, even though we can only get answers after understanding.
I believe that anyone who compares the present with the results of the 2019 local government primary elections, thus drawing the conclusion that only Karácsony can be the runner-up in the primary elections, is on the wrong track, and behind the scenes this was decided a long time ago. First of all, Budapest is not the whole of the country, the support for Christmas in the countryside has never been high, and nowadays it is especially not; true, not even in the capital. Secondly, it immediately follows that we are richer with two years of experience. And thirdly, in 2019, Karácsony defeated DK's Olga Kálmán, but all this should not be taken out of context. At that time, the opposition voters faced three candidates: the unknown Gábor Kerpel-Fronius, an outsider known from television but with no local government experience, Olga Kálmán, and Karácsony, the mayor of Zugló. Honestly? If I had been an opposition voter, I would have voted for the least evil in the person of Karácsony.
Now a prime minister candidate has to be chosen, and all the contestants are known, they all have political experience of one kind or another. Márki-Zay and Fekete-Győr never had any serious support, let's just say, they can start the fight with the calmness of the underdogs. The DK-Jobbik pact was born, and although we do not know the details, we can be sure that the agreement does not aim to put Jakab in the prime minister's seat together. From the movements of the two party presidents, the conclusion can also be drawn that the deal is stable, for the time being both sides are sticking to the deal as much as possible - they are not shooting at each other, the DK is fully committed to protecting the right-wing Nazis in Virtigli, and in return Jakab is doing the same with Gyurcsány. The combing of the small arrow and communist voting camp has been successful so far, although if I were Jakab, I wouldn't be surprised if I suddenly got up with a knife in my back from the particular table where they were able to sit down after fifteen years - "we've finally grown out of kindergarten", said recently The president of Jobbik , so let's hope he will bear the stab in the back like an adult. Because it will happen, there can be no doubt about that. Anyone who has a personality burdened like Ferenc Gyurcsány in their circle of acquaintances or relatives knows exactly that with such a person you can of course agree on anything, but what's the point if he doesn't abide by any agreement or contract anyway, at most as long as his interests are in line with the interests of the other party they match exactly.
And then let's finally talk about why Klára Dobrev will be the runner-up and why this is the A-plan for DK from the beginning! The fact that Jakab is not attacked by DK also highlights that he does not see the internal opponent in him. If we recall, days before Karácsony's lack of language skills hit the front pages of the right-wing press, the Gyurcsány party emphasized in bold letters that their candidate would be Ms. Klára, who speaks four languages . This was only and exclusively for Christmas, or more precisely against him. Then, while the mayor slipped from one outright lie to another in connection with his language exam for proofreading - i.e. not recognized by the state - the Gyurcsánys asked friendly German and American journalists to give Dobrev an interview - in German and English, of course, which languages he speaks really well. I note, with such a family background and opportunities, it would be strange if it were not so. It is interesting that the dog is not interested in Péter Jakab's language skills or lack thereof, so far it has not even been discussed, as if he is not even applying for the post of Prime Minister. I wonder why?
There is also that certain Facebook page, Europálya, which, although it is decorated in DK colors and exclusively promotes Klára Dobrev's campaign, DK denies that it is run by them. Europálya operates almost exclusively on Facebook, but they also have a classic website . The public domain registration data shows that the site has the same registrar and name server as the DK website, but even this does not bother the Gyurcsány party in giving the following answer to its 444 question:
"The Democratic Coalition has nothing to do with the Facebook page you refer to, the content on it and the advertisements running on it. Any statement to the contrary is false. We understand that in the heat of the primary election, our fellow opposition politicians make such claims, but that does not make them a reality. DK wants to win in a fair competition, we have not used such tools and we will not... Since it is only in the interest of Fidesz to unite opposition parties and politicians, it might be worth looking for the truth around Fidesz's house."
According to DK's logic, a Facebook page that defames Fidesz and pokes fun at Karácsony, but supports Dobrev, can only be the work of Fidesz. At the end of the day, what else could Fidesz campaign with, other than its own old-fashioned Alpár and the revival of Ms. Klára? And DK voters believe this because they want to believe it .
Ferenc Gyurcsány and his wife have not changed anything, only the cloak has changed. They deny the obvious as unabashedly and unflinchingly as they always have. Gergely Karácsony is not their friend, not even their true ally, nor is Péter Jakab, but the former is (still) an adversary for them. They look down on the tesetoza mayor and despise the primitive Jakab.
We should understand that the Gyurcsány-Dobrev tandem is not driven forward by the ratio in the campaign either, so they don't even care about which candidate is judged to be more likely by the current data. Does anyone seriously think that Dobrev is only walking around for fun, throwing millions for campaign purposes as a joke, and that this is all just a show of deception, because it was decided in advance that in the end they would run the Christmas party as the winner anyway? Come on! Dobrev's most frequently used word in her campaign launch performance was "strength," and that's no accident.
They have such an immeasurable desire for revenge, because the Hungarian people deprived them of the political power they regard as a trust, that rationing can hardly stand in their way, and their economic resources are unlimited. Although the vast majority of voters still identify Klára Dobrev with Ferenc Gyurcsány, DK and its voters - whose number has tripled since 2018 - still believe that Dobrev is an independent candidate and independent from her husband. That's how they see it, and that's what they're trying to make the undecided believe. They feel that Gyurcsány cannot win, but they believe that Dobrev can. They believe that it is much more likely than Christmas. That is why Klára Dobrev will be the runner-up in the primary election. The A-plan has always been this, at least if something really goes wrong due to a fatal accident, then the B-plan can be considered in the person of Karácsony.
Featured image: Ferenc Isa/AFP
