If this is a play, then it is one of the biggest in world history - but it is a completely meaningless theory, says the head of the Geopolitical Workshop of the MCC in connection with the strange Wagner riot seen on the Russian highway on Saturday. Written by Attila Demkó.

This is not a mockery, it really was a "special military coup" - a bit like a "special military operation". Prigozhin had been attacking the military leadership in an incredible tone for months, he was right about many things at first, but he crossed a line around May. The fact that he accused Gerasimov of treason on May 9, the day of victory, is a declaration of war in Russian culture.

He didn't really hide what his goal was - to remove Gerasimov and Shoigu and, say, to take their place in tandem with Surovikin. On July 1, Shoigu put him in a time crunch (just as the Russians were in a time crunch in February '22 - either they attack before the spring sea of ​​mud or they retreat), so Prigozhin was forced to move. If he does not dispose of Sojgu by the end of June, he will be outlawed from July 1.

Let's discuss the "acting" theory here! According to this, "Putin and Prigozhin colluded", they played the dying swan game, how weak the Russian state is, that the time has come for "the largest-scale Ukrainian counterattack", and the rest. If it's a play, then it's one of the greatest in world history - but it's a completely nonsensical theory. Russia was not in a time crunch, in fact. The later the Ukrainians attack, the better; the summer passes, the mud comes in autumn, and Ukraine is forced to move, not them. The defending side, which is also much bigger in potential, gets to it. What's more, with Bahmut, you can dig in, plant minefields, and the rest.

The "play" theory is the defense of Russian pressurers about how brilliant their beloved Russia is.

It's not. We have already seen this argument in Kharkiv and Kherson - that the Russian army is withdrawing, so to speak, only to destroy the Ukrainians in the open. The supposed trick worked so well that it ended in a huge (Kharkiv) and a partial defeat.

This is an expired record, let it go everyone, no matter how hard you push. This Russian elite is far from brilliant, just like the military leadership - certainly not as stupid as the Ukrainians and the West make them out to be. People, with power, but people who make mistakes.

It's not a farce just because the loss is serious. The three lost Russian Mi-8MTPR-1 EW helicopters are an incredible asset, electronic warfare is the area on which the success of the air force deployment depends. With the destruction of these three out of twenty Mi-8MTPR-1 EW helicopters (although one may be repairable), at best 15 were left for the Russians. We don't sacrifice such a device in a play.

The Il-22M is also such a loss, it's an air command and communication center, most NATO member states don't have one - neither do we and never will. The Ka-52 "Alligator" is also a great value, but so is the Mi-35M. Of course, the Russians really have as many of the plain Mi-8 as there are stars in the sky, but even then, they are not worthless. The deaths of pilots and crew (12 people) don't seem like much - but training a pilot costs a lot of money and a lot of time.

This, and the other losses, damage to roads, bridges, fuel storage, and the rest - it would be a HUF 50 billion deception if it were.

And then we didn't even talk about the Russian state's loss of reputation, Putin's personal loss.

The Russians immediately rushed to China to explain themselves. Most of the world sees this as a weakness.

What is the deal? The criminal proceedings against Prigozhin are terminated and the Wagner leader leaves for Belarus. The rest are assumptions.

What will happen? One thing is certain, Wagner cannot continue where it left off. Although they go back to their old bases, the story is far from over. In my opinion, Prigozhin is unable to regain the trust and goodwill of the Kremlin, Putin does not forget. Now they can't touch it for quite a few months because it's popular; but unless he has some big hidden card, I don't predict long life. If for no other reason than that, as a dead man, he will not say things that might be unpleasant for Moscow.

It might come up again if there is a big problem at the front. Militarily, Wagner has proven himself, but Prigozhin was able to be put under pressure in the last two months precisely because the Russian regular army has improved a lot and the defense lines are strong. The force was strengthened, the Moor could go.

Conclusion: the Russian elite looked into the abyss and did not jump. Prigozhin had one chance, he shot it.

The bloodbaths in Moscow and Rostov will not take place, and the confusion on the fronts will also be temporary. There is a Ukrainian advance, but not a dramatic one.

This episode does not change the course of the war, but it shows the serious weaknesses of the Russian state - the fact that a mercenary leader's army could approach the Kremlin 120 kilometers away does not fit the image of a great power.

Mandarin