As it turned out, they did not calculate in advance whether Germany has money for Ukraine. Spoiler: none.
The Orbán-Szijjártó tandem had no idea when, for the first time in May, they were shocked by the OTP's sanctions against Ukraine: they would not allow the payment of the next half-billion-euro installment of the European Peace Framework. (I hope they don't get bored yet, it's funny to me for the thousandth time: this is the name of an EU program that finances military aid to Ukraine, which certainly meets all the high moral standards, but it is absolutely certain that it does not make peace. It's such a trite thing to call everything 1984, but what is the Ministry of Justice if not this?)
Perhaps as a result of the mud wrestling with the rule of law in recent months, it may even have crossed the mind of the expert ninjas managing our EU affairs that the European Peace Framework may even be considered a bargaining chip by the Commission in exchange for the €13 billion part of our frozen funds tied to judicial reform.
So they could count on a bit of the usual Hungarian pressure, a few frozen moments in the warmly lit central meeting room of the Europa building,
and that a megadeal will come out in December this year, we can give and take, Ukraine's support will be postponed at all costs by the large member states.
Perhaps they never dreamed that the big member states jumped headlong into the war without calculating in advance whether they had the money to support Ukraine. Then it turned out: there is none. Cabaret, matinee, separate. So now, at least if POLITICO is to be believed, the European Peace Framework doesn't have to worry about Viktor Orbán delaying the payments a bit, but rather that Olaf Scholz will shoot the hell out of him.
After the Constitutional Court informed the Scholzes that a minor constitutional violation of HUF 22.6 billion was committed during the planning of this year's German budget, Germany's financial room for maneuver was drastically reduced. They save where they can; and for German voters, it is the least painful to save in Europe.
So Berlin sent a message to Brussels: purse zu, trouser belt festziehen.
And in a non-paper circulating in diplomatic circles, it was suggested: what if the value of the weapons that individual member states send to Kiev in kind could be deducted from the European Peace Fund's payments proportional to its economic strength?
The accountants in Berlin divided and multiplied and found out: in the midst of a debt crisis, recession and total budget emergency planning, it will still be a bit much that the Baltics buy brand new American and French weapons with EU money in exchange for the Soviet scrap metal handed over to Ukraine.
while Germany supplies military equipment for free, and on top of that, it even pays for a quarter of the Baltic arms purchases.
Then he patiently listens to the Baltics' complaints that he is not giving Ukraine enough, and that what he is giving, he is giving it too slowly.
If the Germans are serious about the plan, it is nothing more and nothing less than the death of the European Peace Framework.
Germany has forgotten to book, so for lack of resources, it is forced to put an end to the world in which the Germans simultaneously ship billions worth of weapons and even pay others billions to do the same. From here you are or are. Which means that the Peace Wheel will simply run out of money.
For others, it is not enough to pay bills. Viktor Orbán - whether with a big grin on his face, the news does not talk about - suggested that there is nothing wrong, the European Peace Framework could be based on voluntary contributions. According to POLITICO's diplomatic sources, this would mean that the framework "could hardly continue to function". The will to volunteer has run out. Either the big German wallet drives the pan-European trend, or there will be no money. It's that simple.
The Commission did not count on the Germans not counting.
And with this, we come to a clichéd, obvious conclusion. Dam- und Herrschaften, whoever wants to go to war, should also know how to keep accounts! We got into this situation - that is, that the flagship of the European Ukraine strategy, which was obviously excellently thought out and served a truly noble purpose, and therefore successful, the European Peace Framework has fallen into the valley of death - because Germany under Olaf Scholz forgot to do accounting in the year of the Lord 2022 . She wanted endless money while sounding like a prudently anti-debt Swabian housewife. Surprisingly, the rules of public financial accounting do not allow this:
you are either in debt or you don't have more money than you have. Not even for Ukraine. Nor to the shiny weapons of the Estonians and the Peace Frame.
Hungary said that this is not a good strategy; that when war is not the only way, it is worth trying something else. But the Germans were raging forward with open wallets and full steam ahead, they didn't listen to us. Not sure they will now either.
Fortunately, however, the Semmelweis film came at just the right time to remind us: sometimes the most unexpected coincidences prove the truth of misunderstood Hungarian ideas. In order for the Austrian doctors to be willing to put their precious ducks in chlor-lime solution, Jacob Kolletschka had to die. Perhaps the death of German accounting science will help bring something meaningful to life this December.
Featured Image: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addresses a session of the Bundestag, the federal parliament, in Berlin on November 28, 2023. Photo: MTI/AP/Markus Schreiber
