The problem of childlessness is not only a political issue, but affects all societies, yet Hungary is the only country that deals with the phenomenon.
What is the truth: is our planet overpopulated or should we fear the opposite: the real social catastrophe could be caused by the collapse of the population within twenty years? Stephen J. Shaw, in his documentary "Birth Gap - A World Without Children", answers this question and sounds the alarm.
Women, brides, mothers - From plans to reality?! The Mária Kopp Institute for Population and Families (KINCS) recently held a conference titled "Birthgap - Childless World" at the Hungarian National Museum, where the film "Birthgap - Childless World" by Stephen J. Shaw was shown director's presentation, followed by a professional round table discussion.
At the beginning of the conference, the guests were greeted by Tünde Fűrész, the president of the Mária Kopp Institute, and then Demeter Szilárd, the new director general of the Hungarian National Museum.
In his presentation, Stephen J. Shaw praised the family-friendly attitude of our country and the Hungarian family policy, which encourages childbearing with a number of measures. He emphasized that the problem of childlessness is not only a political issue, but affects all societies, yet Hungary is the only country that deals with the phenomenon. In his opinion, the reason why our country is successful in increasing the fertility rate is because it helps all desired children to be born.
After the presentation and the round table discussion with Stephen J. Shaw, he spoke to Mandiner about what he saw in the film, the possible future vision of societies and how we can avoid a demographic catastrophe where playgrounds will be empty and nursing homes will be full.
In the documentary "Birth Gap - A World Without Children," predictions about an overpopulated planet have been with us for centuries. But it has been suggested several times recently that they may be wrong.
"In 1968, this trend first appeared in the statistics in Germany, and in 1971, it was noticed in the United States as well. Then in 1973 and 1974, this phenomenon was also observed in Japan, Switzerland and Italy. It can be stated that at the turn of 1973 and 1974 there was a sharp change in the decrease. There was no change in the number of those with two or three children, but at the same time, childless young people in their twenties, who did not have a child during this period, began to postpone the date of this. The economic crisis caused by the 1973 oil crisis contributed to this," said Stephen J. Shawval, adding that after the economic situation normalized after the crisis, the desire to have children did not return to its previous state, it remained in this anomaly.
"In a short period of time, it developed that women did not have children in their twenties, so more and more people began to slip out of time."
To the question of how societies reacted to this new phenomenon, Stephen J. Shawval answered the following: the mentioned countries did not realize this situation even then, since demographic processes only make their impact felt over time.
"At first, it was not even noticed that a series of negative events had begun, as positive developments also took place: more and more women appeared on the labor market, for example. At the same time, the number of jobseekers began to decrease, as everyone found a job, because the retiring workforce had to be replaced".
At the beginning, many people pointed out that a kindergarten or school had closed because the number of children had decreased, the expert pointed out.
"However, all this has been going on for 50 years now, and the first serious problems have already appeared. The workforce is shrinking dramatically, while the number of retirees is increasing. From the generation where the number of children decreased, by definition, fewer women of childbearing age came out, and this gap gradually narrows as time progresses. That is why we can see more and more elderly people around us these days, while playgrounds are becoming depopulated. Demographers have seen this for 30 years, but it's not so easy to change it,” said Stephen J. Shawval.
The specialist worked as a data analyst for years and dealt with forward-looking reports for a long time.
"I also worked with German companies, and in 2016 I received data that shocked me. Forecasts predicted a rapid population decline. Meanwhile, they hardly talked about all this. However, it emerged from the demographic data that if we do not change, there will be no sellers and no buyers in 20 years. While the number of dependents is growing rapidly. All numbers point in a negative direction,” he said.
“If I had to choose at that moment whether a meteor would hit the Earth or the population would decrease, I might have chosen a smaller meteor. Because - with a slight exaggeration - even that would not cause as big a problem as this demographic break. At first, I wanted to write a book about all this, but my son talked me out of it, saying that young people watch documentaries," he said, explaining how the idea of making a film came about.
"Initially, I planned to visit a few countries, but when the interviewees opened up one by one during the personal conversations, I realized that I had to go all the way. Because although it does not change how many children people want or whether the number of births would decrease, at the same time the number of women and families who end up without children is increasing, even though it was not planned that way.
According to the expert, the solution will probably come from below, from the level of individuals and family protection communities.
"Although family policy measures are good in Hungary, they are not enough in themselves to prevent the already mentioned trend," added the director of the documentary "Birth Gap - Childless World".
To the suggestion that more than a decade ago there were voices saying that we are protecting the planet by not having children, the specialist replied as follows: these new trends contribute to the delay of having children even more among young people.
"For some, it takes until they run out of time. The mentioned voices appeared already in the 70s, when they announced that the Earth is overpopulated, there will not be enough food and water, and therefore the environment must be protected. It's gotten to the point where there are circles that say that women don't really want children, that having children is really what men want," said Stephen J. Shawval.
The full interview is available on Mandiner's website .
Cover image: Playground design in downtown Budapest
Source: Belváros-Lipotváros Municipality
