With the fact that Iran launched a direct attack on Israel from its own territory, and not through proxies, Saturday's attack practically launched a war against Israel, points out Robert C. Castel, Israeli security policy expert.
On Saturday night, Iran fired hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel, but Israel was helped by the air force of the United States and the United Kingdom, so that in the end almost all of them were destroyed. President Joe Biden assured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of his support, but stated that America would not participate in any Israeli counterstrike against Iran.
According to Robert C. Castel, the time for diplomacy here has long passed.
"When we do a situational analysis, it has to be concluded with a situational statement, and the situational statement is that Israel is at war with Iran. It's that simple, straightforward: it didn't happen through proxies, but Iran attacked Israel, and now Israel is at war with Iran."
The analyst sees it as: there is no point in talking about the UN or diplomacy, the war is going on.
"That's the first thing to say. The second thing is that it is not about 200 devices, which was the first news, but there were 170 drones, about 30 cruise robot aircraft, and about 120 ballistic missiles," explained Castel, who said that this was about the same amount as Russia will be launched in Ukraine in a month or two. "Now Iran fired it at Israel within a few hours. In practice, maybe two ballistic missiles slipped through our defenses, we shot down everything else. The vast majority of interceptions were carried out by the Israeli Air Force and not by our allies. The Jordanian Air Force helped, the British helped, the Americans helped, but due to the nature of the bloc, we have a complete air force and a complete air defense system," said the analyst.
“As for the attack, and as for the counterstrike, Iran launched an attack from its own territory against Israel. And this direct situation completely reshuffled the cards. We are now in completely unknown territory," he pointed out.
Israel has never been openly at war with Iran, this is the first time, and this could radically transform everything: Israeli domestic politics, party politics, the composition of the government up to the grand coalition, and the relationship between the United States and Israel. Iran's move could also result in odd deals, such as the US withdrawing its position on the Rafah in order to prevent Israel from retaliating against Iran.
"There are a lot of new opportunities, but we don't know exactly what they will be. At the same time, I think that the very fact that Israel did not retaliate reflexively shows that we are fighting here within a coalition. And what is very important to say is that
this is now the Western Arab-Israeli coalition that President Biden wanted to build," pointed out Robert C. Castel.
The analyst explained this in more detail: there was an idea that there would be a ceasefire with Hamas, and then at the end of the process it would be crowned by a coalition between Israel, the Arab states and the United States.
And now, in a strange way, we see that the situation has been reversed: what the Americans wanted to achieve as a final result has now been de facto achieved. So for the rest of the process, the Saudi-Israeli normalization and the war against Hamas, the film has turned.
“The moment Iran intervened in this war, it completely changed the face of the conflict. A part of the American public, especially the progressives, has so far seen Hamas as David fighting Goliath: "a poor little terrorist organization is the hairstylist of the giant Israeli army". However, now that a regional power with approximately one hundred million people, which is also at war with Israel through its allies, has launched a direct attack against us, it will be difficult to sell this David and Goliath narrative in American domestic politics," explained Castel, who said that for the time being, even the decision-makers they see the real depth of the transformation process that is just starting.
The analyst pointed out: Iran could have made a symbolic gesture, firing ten missiles and three robotic aircraft, that is, doing minimal things and closing the issue. But Iran did not choose that.
"What we saw in terms of the magnitude of the attack was not a retaliatory strike, but the beginning of a war," said Castel, who said that the big advantage of the situation was that it also created the opportunity for Israel to attack Iran directly, which until now would have had no international legitimacy.
The full interview can be read on Híradó.hu
Cover photo: Robert C. Castel says it will be a long war
Source: Facebook/Robert C. Castel
