The question is, if Gergely Karácsony has not been able to show meaningful results as city manager with a comfortable political majority since 2019, how would this be possible with a non-left-wing Majority Assembly.

Between 1994 and 2010, 66 members of the Capital Assembly, and 33 after 2010, were directly elected by the citizens of Budapest based on the votes cast on the party lists, in a roughly proportional system. In addition to their district votes, the residents of the capital voted for party lists in the capital, and the mandates were distributed among them in proportion to the votes cast.

From the 2014 local government election (after an amendment), pure list voting was abolished, so the composition of the 33-member board was different. Pursuant to § 6 of Act L of 2010 on the election of local government representatives and mayors, 23 district mayors were elected to the Capital Assembly, nine of the remaining ten seats were obtained from the parties' compensation list, based on the fractional votes cast for their non-elected district mayor candidates, while the 33rd member of the general assembly is the directly elected mayor.

In summary, before 2014, the citizens of Budapest could vote for the mayor, the district mayor, the district individual representative candidate, or for a party list from which the members of the Metropolitan Assembly were selected. As of 2014, there was no party list, the citizens of Budapest only voted for the mayor, the district mayor and the district representative.

In relation to the essence of the latest electoral amendment, it should be noted that on December 12, 2023, with 135 yes, 40 no and 6 abstentions, the Parliament amended Act L of 2010 on the election of local government representatives and mayors.

Pursuant to the amendment, the voters elect the members of the Capital Assembly on a capital list, in which case the capital of Budapest forms an electoral district. The 32 representative seats of the 33-member Metropolitan Assembly are allocated in proportion to the votes cast on the party lists (and the mayor is also a member of the body).

According to the new rules, when electing the members of the general assembly, only the nominating organization that nominated a candidate for mayor or a candidate for mayor in at least three of the capital's districts can submit a capital list. Nominating organizations that have nominated a joint candidate for mayor or a joint candidate for mayor in at least three districts of the capital city can put forward a joint list for the capital city.

It should be noted that the Constitutional Court 26/2014. (VII. 23.) AB decision confirmed that 63/B/1995. The constitutional principle already laid down in the AB decision is that "[…] the Parliament has broad decision-making freedom when choosing the electoral system and establishing the rules of the electoral procedure", and "the legislator freely determines the electoral district systems, the nomination of candidates, the voting and the acquisition of mandates order", and this clear legislative freedom is limited only by the Basic Law, so the Parliament took advantage of this opportunity last December.

Mayor Gergely Karácsony immediately announced the possibility of a joint capital party list after the decision of the Parliament on December 12, 2023, and invited the leaders of the parties of the opposition cooperation that won in Budapest in 2019 to a meeting in order to conclude the negotiations related to the joint start. At the end of March this year, it was also announced that the DK, MSZP and Párbeszéd had entered into a long-term, strategic cooperation, and that the three parties would present a joint European Parliament and capital list for the June 9, 2024 election, and even for the 2026 they also run together in parliamentary elections.

According to experts, proportionality can create justice, in the 2019 local government election in Budapest, the ratio between the left and governing parties was still 53:41 among the votes of the district representative candidates, in the April 2022 list election, the left-wing party within the city was only 48:41 the ratio of joint list and Fidesz-KDNP votes (and in the Capital Assembly, the balance of power is 18:15, so based on the numbers, the "proportionalization" supported by the government does not necessarily strengthen Fidesz, but the fair distribution of seats - and the Capital, as a better enforcement of its interests as a whole - it can help).

A problematic point of the previous electoral system (capital system) is that the population of the districts is different, which led to disproportionality (for example, district XI had 143,000 permanent residents, while district XXIII had 21,000 permanent residents in 2011).

Finally, it is worth mentioning that, according to analysts, Gergely Karácsony, who previously won the election with a stable majority, has a real chance of being replaced. All XIV. Karácsony, who has shown himself to be a weak leader both as district mayor and as mayor (despite the comfortable majority in the assembly), would undoubtedly find himself in a difficult situation with a non-left-liberal majority in the Metropolitan Assembly, largely due to his weak leadership skills.

On the other hand, István Tarlós (previous mayor) of III. During his four mayoral terms at the head of the district (1990–2006), he was able to establish successful cooperation with all parties in a significant part of local matters, and the district representative body adopted the budget decrees almost every year with full, supportive consensus and the support of all factions (István Tarlós he was able to become mayor without the parties supporting him having a majority in the local representative body).

Today, the Metropolitan Assembly is the main body of the Metropolitan Municipality, and almost all local government powers are primarily exercised by this body; within the framework of the laws, the General Assembly regulates the organizational and operational rules of the municipality in a separate decree, in which it can delegate the exercise of certain powers to the mayor or his own committees.

The task of the Capital Assembly is, among other things, to adopt the annual budget of the municipality. Regarding the power relations of the Metropolitan Municipality, it is important that, just as the General Assembly is not assigned to the district municipalities, the mayor is not superior to the district mayors. If Karácsony were to win the election on June 9, as mayor, he would remain the municipality's number one elected official and head of the Mayor's Office, who is also the president of the Capital City Assembly (with a realistic chance of changing its political composition from the fall) and presides over its meetings.

The question is, if since 2019 he has not been able to show meaningful results as city manager with a comfortable political majority, how would he succeed with a non-left-wing Majority Assembly.

Source: Basic Law Blog

Cover image: MTI/Árpád Földházi